This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells continues Thursday, and while seeded players won't take the court until the second round, Thursday's action includes multiple former world No. 1 players and multi-time Grand Slam winners, as well as a few promising young players making their way up the rankings. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Stan Wawrinka (+160) vs. Tomas Machac
Wawrinka is just 1-3 to begin 2024, but two of the 38-year-old veteran's losses have been competitive defeats at the hands of top-25 players, as he fell to Adrian Mannarino in five sets at the Australian Open and pushed Nicolas Jarry to a third-set tiebreak. Machac has looked solid so far this year with a 5-4 main draw record, but this will be only the second Masters 1000 main draw appearance of the 23-year-old Czech's career. Wawrinka's wealth of experience could give him the edge as the three-time Grand Slam champion tries to pull off another Indian Wells upset after taking out Holger Rune here last year.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (+280) vs. Xinyu Wang
Wang certainly has the stronger long-term outlook, but the difference between these two players right now isn't as great as the odds suggest. The 29-year-old Schmiedlova is ranked 69th and has a 5-5 record in 2024. The 22-year-old Wang is ranked 42nd and is 6-7 this season, including 2-5 in her last seven matches. Wang defeated Schmiedlova in three sets in the third round of last year's US Open, but she's just 6-12 against top-90 opponents since that victory.
Honorable Mention
Roberto Carballes Baena (+220) vs. Flavio Cobolli
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Naomi Osaka (-425) vs. Sara Errani
Like Nadal, Osaka's a multi-slam winner trying to work her way back to her top form. We have yet to see Osaka's A-game in 2024, but even her C-game should be more than enough to overpower the light-hitting Errani. The Italian made a French Open final and US Open semifinal in 2012, but she's well past her prime at age 36, having won only seven Grand Slam matches since the start of the 2016 season. Seven of Errani's last eight matches against top-70 opponents have been straight-sets losses, while Osaka at least seemed to be rounding into form with a pair of top-70 wins in Doha before losing to Karolina Pliskova.
Honorable Mention
Alex Michelsen (-250) vs. Jaume Munar
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Elina Avanesyan (-125) vs. Oceane Dodin
Avanesyan's a talented young player with a top-30 future, and as long as the 21-year-old Russian has recovered from a back injury that's kept her out the past month, this first-round match should be relatively straightforward for the world No. 63. Dodin capitalized on a favorable draw to reach the fourth round of the Australian Open, but she turned back into a pumpkin with a 6-0, 6-3 loss to Qinwen Zheng and hasn't played a WTA Tour-level event since. The 27-year-old Frenchwoman spends most of her time grinding the ITF circuit, where she has five losses to players ranked outside the top 200 in the last five months, and Dodin's last top-100 win prior to the Australian Open came back in September of 2022 against 97th-ranked Lauren Davis.
Arthur Fils (-145) vs. Nuno Borges
Speaking of bright futures, Fils certainly has one. The 19-year-old Frenchman has already cracked the top 50, and he has the tools to keep climbing with substantial power off the ground complementing exquisite touch. While Fils is still searching for consistency, his natural ability should help carry him past Borges, who has a career 23-32 record on the ATP Tour. Fils dominated Borges 6-2, 6-0 earlier this year in Auckland.
Honorable Mention
Zhizhen Zhang (-150) vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic
