NHL Waiver Wire: Reversals of Fortune

For the last week of 2018, we'll be temporarily switching up the format. With the NHL holiday break cutting out three days, not much has changed waiver-wise since the last column. So instead of reviewing the top under-owned players, you'll find a few folks who overachieved/underachieved to date but are trending to have their fortunes reversed in the New Year. Anyone who missed significant time due to injury won't be included, since that would obviously be reflected in the stats.

Who will rebound in the second half? And who will fall back to Earth?

(Stats as of Dec. 27)

Too Much Talent to Fail

Tyler Toffoli, F, LA

As mentioned here two weeks ago, Toffoli hasn't been able to turn effort into points. And in the five games since, he's only managed a goal – albeit an OT winner – but has also fired 25 pucks on net. Toffoli is known to go for goal quite often, so his awful 5.7 shooting percentage should eventually approach the 9.6 and 9.7 he posted the last two seasons.

Casey Mittelstadt, F, BUF

I've been waiting a long time to tout Mittelstadt as a potential turnaround candidate, but his numbers have never levelled out. The 2018 WJC MVP teased fantasy owners with a four-point-in-five effort during in late October/early November, but that's the closest he's come to duplicating his offensive haul at other levels. With the Sabres immersed in a tough Atlantic Division playoff battle, you'd think they will stick to their proven performers down the stretch. But if they're looking for that added bit of scoring, there's no way to ignore what Mittelstadt's skills can potentially provide.

James Neal, F, CGY

The one who was first assumed to join the top line out of training camp didn't have a great start to the season. Or much to speak of during the middle portion. To be honest, Neal's initial Alberta run has looked pathetic with only seven points in 36 outings. Even with this drop in form, Neal has been provided with enough opportunities to recover. The 31-year old holds down a place on Calgary's second power play, but has bounced between the second and third five-on-five units. Regardless of regular placement, Neal will continue to work hard to help the club – and that should translate to more goals and assists.

Nolan Patrick, F, PHI

Patrick was highlighted back in November, including an allusion to his 21-point-in-final-33-game run to end last year. After 32 games, he's stuck at 11 points – with only two over the last 18. But with a bit of math, you'll see Patrick was actually worse off in 2017-18 because he only registered nine points through his first 40 appearances. That calculation can't guarantee a repeat of last year's finishing feat, but it at least tells us he doesn't fade later in the schedule.

Dougie Hamilton, D, CAR

So much promise, so little output. That's the best way to describe Hamilton's Hurricanes debut so far. The blueliner, who has pulled off four consecutive 42-plus-point campaigns, stands at three goals and seven assists, including a current haul of nothing in eight. But there is hope for Bruins draftee. Despite the dip in his primary scoring categories, Hamilton continues to average more than three shots and over two minutes of power-play duty a night. The hits have also come at a regular rate, although the blocks are down from his Calgary days as Carolina teammates have picked up the slack. And as long as the team keeps relying on Hamilton in all areas, then the points will eventually materialize.

Will Butcher, D, NJ

After a stellar 41 points during his rookie run, Butcher has tailed off with only 11 in Year 2. But as was the case with Nolan Patrick, the 2017 Hobey Baker winner concluded last regular season with 14 points in his last 16 contests. That means the other 27 came from the first 65, which isn't that far off the pace from the current 11 in 35. And Butcher remains the point-man on Jersey's top power play, where he's recorded seven PPAs. His case is also boosted by the fact his overall ice time has increased by almost three minutes compared to last year.

Tuukka Rask, G, BOS

Although Rask has "struggled" to an 8-8-2 record with a 2.72 GAA and .911 save percentage, he should remain productive on the road what seems like another inevitable playoff berth. Jaroslav Halak has definitely outplayed the Finn (see below), but the incumbent owns a career 2.27 GAA and a .922 save percentage along with a Vezina Trophy and a 2013 Finals appearance as a starter (2011's Cup win saw him as an unused backup).

Scheduled for a Landing

Zach Parise, F, MIN

At 34, Parise has turned back time by racking up 15 goals and 14 assists. The former All-Star has also experienced a few recent injuries, including a back problem that kept him out for half of last year. At this rate, he's projected to hit the 60-point mark over a full season. Unfortunately, Parise last suited up for all 82 games in 2011-12. Expect him to end up in the high-40s and complete at least one moderate-to-extensive stint on the shelf.

Andrew Shaw, F, MON

Things were looking super for Shaw when he served as the tough guy alongside Jonathan Drouin and Max Domi, but a move down the depth chart will probably not keep his scoring totals flowing. The two-time Cup champ peaked at 39 points five seasons ago, and he's at 21 through 33 appearances. Though he's still reliable when it comes to PIM and hits, Shaw probably isn't the offensive catalyst you're looking for.

Alex Chiasson, F, EDM

The big winger earned a mention when he was skating with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at even strength but has subsequently been moved to a line with the latter. Chiasson remains with the duo on the power play, where he's potted a pair of PPGs over the last week-and-a-half of action. He's already surpassed his career high in goals with 16, but it's uncertain how high that total will reach. Based on Edmonton's experience of regularly shuffling wingers around the lineup, Chiasson isn't guaranteed to stay with either of the top guns for an extended period.

Ryan Dzingel, F, OTT

At 25 points, the fourth-year pro is scheduled to shatter his high of 41 from a season ago. The Sens sit 11th in the league with a 3.17 goals per game, but they've only potted 20 over the past 10 matchups. If this trend continues, then a couple of Ottawa forwards will see their scoring stats take a hit. And for those on lower lines – like Dzingel – the chance for a downturn only increases.

Ryan McDonagh, D, TB

The 29-year old blueliner is enjoying his most efficient fantasy NHL campaign, with 22 points, 72 blocks, and a plus-22 through 37 games. Even though the Lightning scored 46 times in their nine most recent encounters, McDonagh was only involved in two of those goals. Mikhail Sergachev may have fallen off the mark after an awesome showing during his first full season, but he's set to be a regular producer down the line. Whether that comes in the next few months or over the course of a year or so, McDonagh won't last long as the second offensive option behind Victor Hedman.

Brent Seabrook, D, CHI

Sure, the veteran was brought up in October to highlight his resurgence. But over his last 20 outings, Seabrook has only been able to chip in with a goal and four assists. The days of he and Duncan Keith dominating Chicago's D-man point totals only exist as distant memories, as the younger set of Erik Gustafsson and Henri Jokiharju – at a combined 29 points – have already shown they're more than capable of upholding the Blackhawks blue-line tradition.

Jaroslav Halak, G, BOS

Rask was included in the opening list, which leaves Halak to act here as a counterbalance. The Slovakian netminder has impressed by posting a 2.19 GAA and .930 save percentage through 21 appearances, which includes three shutouts. But as was said earlier, let's repeat it here: Tuukka Rask will be Boston's regular starter for most of its remaining games. Of course, Halak will be able to step in at times to help the cause — just don't expect him to supplant Rask as the full-time No. 1.