This article is part of our FanDuel PGA series.
Course: TPC Twin Cities (7,431 yards, par 71)
Winner: $1,188,000 and 500 FedExCup points
What a debut it was last season for the 3M Open. The recently turned professionals of Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa were battling late for the win alongside Bryson DeChambeau. Ultimately it ended up being the 2019 NCAA individual national champ, Wolff, who drained a 25-footer for eagle on the 72nd hole to best both Morikawa and DeChambeau by a single stroke. Many thought the floodgates would open for the Oklahoma State standout, but that has yet to materialize, as his runner-up a few weeks ago in Detroit was his first top-10 since that win in Minnesota last year. Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka will headline what will be the weakest field since the resumption of tournament play. Tommy Fleetwood will also be making his first start post-shutdown this week as he looks to break back into the top-10 in the OWGR. This recent heat wave has extended up into Blaine where temperatures are expected to climb over 90 degrees for the majority of tournament action. There is a chance of isolated thunderstorms every day and winds should stay consistent around 10-15 miles per hour throughout the event. Many players that teed it up a week ago will be glad to get back to some more receptive greens that offer opportunities to be aggressive.
2019 – Matthew Wolff
Key Stats to Victory
No course yielded more birdies last season than TPC Twin Cities. They are attempting to narrow some of the fairways, grow the rough up a touch, and increase green speeds to close to 13 on the stimpmeter, in an attempt to make the course more difficult for the second addition. Unfortunately, I think their efforts will be futile and these players should be able to tear through this course again. The landing areas and greens are both pretty large, meaning bombers should have a big advantage. Players should also see quite a few short irons and wedges, giving them the chance to be even more aggressive because the greens are so spacious. In low scoring affairs like this, you can't have a bad putting week and still win. Just look at the leaderboard last year. Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau are both bombers who can really roll it, and I believe that's the type of player you should be targeting this week.
FanDuel Value Picks
Dustin Johnson ($12,400)
If you're going to spend big for one golfer in a field with very few studs, the 21-time PGA Tour winner has to be the guy. As I just mentioned above, he is a perfect combination of bomber and putter, which many people don't give him credit for. Other than 2018, this has been one of Johnson's best putting seasons, as he currently ranks eighth in putts per GIR and 26th in one-putt percentage. He missed the cut at both Colonial and Muirfield Village, which played very firm, while he was T17 at Harbour Town and won the Travelers Championship on more receptive courses, similar to what the players will face this week.
Tony Finau ($11,600)
The Utah native was finally able to put together a good result last week at the Memorial with a solo eighth despite shooting a 78 on Sunday. Prior to that he had just one top-25 finish in four starts since the resumption of play. What was most encouraging about Finau's play in Ohio was the putter, which ranked fifth in strokes gained and first in putts per GIR for the week. That sweet combination of power and putting will pay off at this course. He's also eighth in SG: Around, 10th in SG: Tee-to-green, and 20th in birdie average.
Harris English ($10,800)
Even COVID-19 can't slow the former Georgia standout down this season. After missing two tournaments following a positive test, English posted a very solid T13 at the Memorial in tough conditions. At 30 years old he is having the best season of his career with five top-10s and nine top-20s in 14 starts. A dive into his stats reveal no weaknesses, as he ranks top-60 in every strokes gained category and 10th in SG: Total this season. English is also top-15 on Tour in GIR percentage, scrambling, and scoring average.
Lucas Glover ($10,600)
Last week Glover was in the "Longer Shots with Value" bracket in a stacked field at Memorial. This week I still believe he has as much value as anyone in this range despite the big uptick in price in this weaker field. Glover began the restart with four top-25's in a row and should have easily had another one last week had it not been for a final-round 78. Even at 40-years-old he is still one of the better ball strikers on Tour. Glover ranks top-40 this season in SG: Off-the-tee, SG: Approach, and birdie average. He also finished T7 here last year with a final-round 62.
Longer Shots with Value
Doc Redman ($9,900)
The former Clemson standout missed the cut last week, but prior to that went T21-T11-T21 on much softer golf courses like we should see in Blaine. His short game is the big concern, but at a course with such large greens that disadvantage should be mitigated. Redman's ball striking has quietly been very impressive this season, ranking 29th in SG: Off-the-tee, 13th in driving accuracy, 15th in SG: Approach, 22nd in GIR percentage, and 12th in proximity. All that adds up to a whole lot of birdies at TPC Twin Cities.
Henrik Norlander ($9,800)
Since missing the first four cuts of the season, Norlander has gone 12-for-16 with four top-12 finishes. One of his best showings of the season came just last week at the difficult Muirfield Village where he placed T6 behind a red-hot putter that ranked second in both strokes gained and putts per GIR. If Norlander combines that touch on the greens with his usual solid ball striking, that should lead to plenty of birdies for the Swede. He is 11th in driving accuracy and 27th in GIR percentage on Tour.
Richy Werenski ($8,800)
This is where it gets hard this week to find value. I think once you get under $9,000 this week you are just looking for players who can give you four rounds. Werenski has been able to do that in all four events that he has teed it up since the restart. Surprising to me was that he is quietly in the top-50 on Tour in SG: Total, with the putter being the biggest reason why. In his last start at the Workday Charity Open, however, Werenski ranked seventh in SG: Approach and sixth in SG: Around. He should face similar conditions in Blaine where he went 10-under-par last year.
Cameron Tringale ($8,300)
Many people have talked about Bryson DeChambeau's distance transformation, but Tringale has made his own gains over the last few years. He has emerged into the top 25 percent in terms of distance on Tour, picking up over 20 yards from back in 2017 when he averaged just 280 off the tee. With wide fairways and rough that shouldn't be too much of a problem, Tringale should be able to go after it this week with the driver. He is also 25th in SG: Approach and 37th in SG: Tee-to-green this season. Tringale has only missed three cuts in 15 starts this season and ranks inside the top-45 of SG: Total. That makes him one of the better values under $8,500 this week.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
With so little proven and consistent success in this field this week, you're going to have to take a shot in the dark at some point near the end of your roster. I'd front load as much as you can this week on the players that are really playing well right now, such as Finau, English, and Glover, and Redman. Brooks Koepka is a hard fade again for me at the ridiculous price of $12,100. He looks a lot closer to the 100th ranked player in the World than the top-five right now. I also think we need to wait a week to see how Tommy Fleetwood does in his first competitive start since March. DJ is really the only player I see that is worth taking at over $11,000 this week. Other players I considered putting on my "Longer Shots with Value" section include Wyndham Clark, Chase Seiffert, and Stewart Cink.