This article is part of our PrizePicks Golf series.
PrizePicks offers a unique twist on DFS play in the form of Over/Under picks for individual players in almost every sport imaginable. You have the opportunity to pick two, three or four players per entry, and the goal is to predict whether the individual player will end up over or under the projected total PrizePicks provides. For PGA play, you are required to pick at least one Over and one Under play. The legend for scoring in this format is as follows:
|Double Eagle or Better||13|
|Double Bogey or Worse||-1|
Unlike your usual PGA DFS platforms, PrizePicks offers PGA gameplay on a per-round basis, not for an entire tournament. So, the projected totals you see today are for the individual rounds on Thursday, and once Thursday's round commences, you will see updated numbers for Friday, and so on.
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Today we'll be focusing on the opening round of the Wyndham Championship. Let's get right to it!
Sedgefield CC – Par 71, 7,130 yards
Sedgefield should be familiar to many of the golfers. It's one of the easiest layouts on Tour and it's notorious for yielding low scores. It's entirely possible for scores up to 20-under par come Sunday afternoon, and we should see an abundance of low scores on Thursday. PrizePicks is offering O/U lines ranging from 22.5 (roughly 6-under par) to 20.5 (roughly 4-under par). While it's a fairly ABC layout, tee shots are a bit more challenging due to the overall fairway width on most of the holes. Players will also face a challenge with the slick Bermuda greens that will be hard to hold. As a result, accuracy off the tee and approach shot proximity will be key markers to analyze this week, and bogey avoidance stats will also be worth an extra look.
EXAMINING THE FIELD
It's the last week before the FedEx Cup playoffs, and we have a huge field lobbying for a big move to get inside the top 125 to qualify for next week's Northern Trust. None of the players on our slate are in immediate danger of missing out, but a low score this weekend could certainly help them stick around as the playoffs continue. The Top 70 and ties will advance to the weekend.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER
There's a possibility of a storm or two coming through the area, with a 50% chance of rain throughout the day, and a higher probability of rain and possible lightning in the early afternoon. Moisture will help hold the fast greens, so players that tee off later could have a slightly easier time on Thursday. Players on our slate with later tee times on Thursday include Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey, Charles Howell III, Jordan Spieth, Aaron Wise and Sungjae Im.
Patrick Reed – 21.5
Viewers of the Greater Greensboro Open in 2013 were treated to a hotly-contested playoff between Reed and Jordan Spieth, with Reed ultimately pulling out a win. Reed has never missed a cut here and is coming off of a decent outing last week. He tends to be a bit irresponsible with course management, opting for power over accuracy, and as a result he doesn't fare well in our key stat categories. I'm setting those numbers aside and will instead rely on Reed's course knowledge and an ability to post a low number here.
Abraham Ancer – 20.5
Ancer carded a 12-under T24 performance last year in Greensboro. His most notable advantage this weekend is a stellar accuracy percentage off the tee (15th on Tour) and his Round One Scoring Average 69.76 ranks 28th overall. I also like his Par 4 Birdie or Better Percentage of 19.08% (22nd on Tour). He isn't the best putter in the field, but he has the ability to put himself in scoring position off the tee. I'm also not thrilled about the early tee time, but he'll come into the weekend with confidence after faring well here in 2018.
Lucas Glover – 21.5
I am always hesitant to select Overs on the high end of the slate, but I think Glover's numbers are a bit too strong to ignore. Glover has posted three straight finishes of 20th or better over the past month. He also posted a T22 here in 2016 and a T28 in 2017. Glover's superior Bogey Avoidance numbers (7th on Tour) and Par 4 Scoring Average (5th on Tour) give me a load of confidence in slotting him into the Over category.
Jason Kokrak – 21.0
I think the O/U threshold is a bit too high for Kokrak on Thursday. He ranks near the bottom in Round One Scoring Average (159th) and his tepid driving accuracy percentage of 62.02% (109th on Tour) is another notch against him. Over the past three years he's posted a 69, 68 and 73 (MC) in the opening round at Sedgefield, so there's nothing to indicate that he'll blow up with a low number this year either.
Aaron Wise – 20.5
Aside from an opening-round 66 in the U.S. Open, Wise hasn't posted an opening round below 68 since the BMW Championship 14 months ago. If that isn't enough to lock him in for a number below this O/U, his SG: Approach rank of 139th will help our case for putting him in the Under category. His Par 4 Scoring Average of 4.05 (137th) doesn't help his case either.
Adam Hadwin – 20.5
Hadwin's SG: Approach numbers rank a paltry 105th on Tour (.061). Although he'll occasionally pop with a low number, his numbers at Sedgefield have barely broken par in the opening rounds since 2015. He managed a 66 in the third round of the tournament in both 2015 and 2016 but has avoided the event since then. I don't expect to see him atop the leaderboard on Thursday.