This article is part of our IDP Analysis series.
RISING
Cole Holcomb, (3-4) ILB, WAS
Holcomb was promising as a rookie fifth-round pick in 2019, generating 105 tackles (74 solo), one sack and three forced fumbles while playing just 681 defensive snaps, then new coach Ron Rivera bizarrely chose to put Holcomb on the bench to begin the 2020 season, leaving him behind all of Jon Bostic, Kevin Pierre-Louis and Thomas Davis. Rivera is an objectively bad talent evaluator, so this outcome isn't terribly shocking. To Rivera's credits, he seemed to recognize his error over the course of the year, and the team promoted Holcomb to a three-down starting role beginning in Week 9 following the bye. Now 421 defensive snaps into the season, Holcomb has 54 tackles (33 solo), 1.5 sacks and one interception, including strong work in coverage. Holcomb seems to be playing well in real-life terms in addition to IDP terms.
Lonnie Johnson, S, HOU
Readers of this column will recall that Johnson has ended up on the 'riser' list something like four times in the past eight weeks. I swear that was in response to changing conditions in each case, rather than predicting the same thing four times, and it's necessary to note that the change in conditions in this case should propel Johnson to mainstream IDP utility. That's because Johnson needed just a little more playing time to project as a breakout candidate, and three-down starter Justin Reid suffered a season-ending thumb injury in Week 14. After playing
RISING
Cole Holcomb, (3-4) ILB, WAS
Holcomb was promising as a rookie fifth-round pick in 2019, generating 105 tackles (74 solo), one sack and three forced fumbles while playing just 681 defensive snaps, then new coach Ron Rivera bizarrely chose to put Holcomb on the bench to begin the 2020 season, leaving him behind all of Jon Bostic, Kevin Pierre-Louis and Thomas Davis. Rivera is an objectively bad talent evaluator, so this outcome isn't terribly shocking. To Rivera's credits, he seemed to recognize his error over the course of the year, and the team promoted Holcomb to a three-down starting role beginning in Week 9 following the bye. Now 421 defensive snaps into the season, Holcomb has 54 tackles (33 solo), 1.5 sacks and one interception, including strong work in coverage. Holcomb seems to be playing well in real-life terms in addition to IDP terms.
Lonnie Johnson, S, HOU
Readers of this column will recall that Johnson has ended up on the 'riser' list something like four times in the past eight weeks. I swear that was in response to changing conditions in each case, rather than predicting the same thing four times, and it's necessary to note that the change in conditions in this case should propel Johnson to mainstream IDP utility. That's because Johnson needed just a little more playing time to project as a breakout candidate, and three-down starter Justin Reid suffered a season-ending thumb injury in Week 14. After playing around 50 snaps per game until recently, Johnson will likely go over 60 snaps per game through the season's conclusion, giving him a chance to produce in top-15 DB territory.
Kamren Curl, S, WAS*
This blurb is a little confused – Curl's value is settled for 2020 – but I wanted to write something that both recognizes his 2020 success while also keeping in mind that his situation might turn for the slightly worse in 2021. Curl has been a smashing success for those fortunate to add him as an IDP once he broke into the starting lineup, and he should continue to produce at a high level through the season's conclusion. After initially beginning the year as Washington's lead slot corner, Curl eventually received more reps at safety, especially once Landon Collins suffered a season-ending Achilles' tendon tear in Week 7. That opened up the strong safety position to Curl, which is the position that offers more tackle opportunities than free safety, which has been played by the less productive duo of Troy Apke and DeShazor Everett. Curl capitalized fully with his opportunity, producing 52 tackles over the subsequent six games, and for that he deserves all the credit in the world. But going into 2021 just keep in mind that if Collins returns then Curl will likely play the free safety role instead of the strong safety one, and in that scenario his tackle production will almost certainly fall. Collins might not return, though, so Curl is something of a 'hold' for 2021, though an IDP beast in the meantime.
Azeez Al-Shaair, LB, SF
It's not clear yet whether the 49ers will need him to, but Al-Shaair is a candidate to play a three-down role in Week 15 if star LB1 Fred Warner (stinger) is unable to suit up. The matchup is with the Cowboys, so if Al-Shaair replaces Warner in this context he could very well yield LB1 production for his Week 15 investors. Al-Shaair is no Warner – probably only Eric Kendricks is a comparably strong coverage linebacker – but Al-Shaair was a super productive player at Florida Atlantic and totaled five tackles on 36 snaps after replacing the injured Warner in Week 14. If Al-Shaair starts against Dallas he should project for roughly 60 snaps, which would give him a good shot at double digits.
FALLING
Rodney McLeod, S, PHI
McLeod will miss the rest of the season and perhaps parts of 2021 due to an ACL tear suffered against the Saints on Sunday. McLeod isn't much of an IDP entity himself -- his 872 snaps this year yielded just 66 tackles and an interception – but he's consistently been a DB3-type in deeper formats, going back to 2013. With age 31 coming up in June, this injury might cruelly mark the end of McLeod's reign as a starting NFL safety. K'Von Wallace in particular is a threat to take McLeod's role after Philadelphia selected him in the fourth round of the 2020 draft.
Nicholas Morrow, LB, LV
There's reason to worry that Morrow is one of two Raiders IDPs who might miss Thursday's game against the Chargers due to a concussion he suffered in Week 14. Morrow has been one of the top IDP steals of 2020, generating 67 tackles (54 solo), two sacks and one interception on 642 defensive snaps, so if he's unavailable it could create a meaningful void in the Week 15 IDP production. If Morrow sits, it curiously opens a renewed opportunity for Cory Littleton, who has otherwise been reduced to Vegas' LB3 as a huge bust in free agency.
Johnathan Abram, S, LV
Abram is the other Raiders defender who might miss Week 15 due to suffering a concussion on a short week. Third safety Erik Harris has already stepped into the starting lineup to replace the injured Jeff Heath, so if Abram is out it would leave the Raiders very thin at safety indeed. If Abram is out it's not clear whether the Raiders would go with Dallin Cleavitt, who has been the fourth safety to this point, or shuffle some of Abram's box reps to a linebacker.
Jeremy Chinn, LB/S, CAR
Chinn is in the midst of a spectacular rookie season for IDP purposes, so this blurb isn't meant to take away anything from that fact. With 95 tackles (56 solo), one sack, one interception, two forced fumbles and two touchdowns on just 773 snaps, Chinn is almost certainly a common league-winner IDP for 2020 fantasy leagues. That fact has a little bit to do with Chinn's positional classification, though – he is almost universally DB-eligible because the Panthers drafted him as a safety and called him one well into the season. They have since formally changed his position to linebacker, though, and with that the bar is raised significantly. Chinn is basically a cheat code at defensive back, where his linebacker production can't be imitated because the competition is playing a different position entirely. Chinn's production is also very good by linebacker standards, just beware that in 2021 Chinn's IDP investors will pit him against the likes of Darius Leonard instead of Jessie Bates.
