This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week's tickets were a bit longer than we usually discuss (thank you to Adam Zdroik for filling in for me), and we didn't exactly have the best success. Turning the risk down a bit this week, here are some bets offered by FanDuel Sportsbook that are a bit more off the grid than simple spreads, moneylines or totals. If you're looking for that kind of help, check out Chris Liss' Beating the Book article and our weekly Staff Picks one.
Rams and Falcons to both score 25 (+170)
The Rams vs. Falcons game has the highest total of Week 7 at 54.5, with the Rams 3.0-point road favorites. Atlanta comes in after scoring at least 24 points in four of their past five games, including at least 32 in each of their past two. Twenty four obviously doesn't get us to where we need to be against the Rams, who scored at least 30 in two of their last three, but given the plethora of points expected, why not bank on both teams hitting for 25 instead of messing around with whether they'll combine for more than 54.5 and only getting -110 odds for it? In fact, it's even lower than their own team props, with the Rams sitting at 28.5 (-106 over, -116 under) and the Falcons 27.0 (-104 over, -118 under). This bet obviously includes the risk that both teams need to reach 25, but with points expected, let's get a little more for our money.
Eagles and Cowboys to both score 20 (-110)
This one is a little bit safer than the above since we don't need as many points, but naturally our payoff isn't as high. I was actually going to suggest the Ravens and Seahawks to both score 20 at -108, a game with a 49.0-point total and 3.0-point home favorite, but the odds for the Eagles and Cowboys is pretty similar and the game has a slightly higher 49.5-point total, with the Cowboys 2.5-point home favorites. Getting -110 for the teams to combine for 50 points (if you take the over) is always an option, but let's take the same odds where we only need them to combine for 40, as long as each one does their part, of course. Looking at it another way, the odds for over 39.5 (which doesn't require both teams get to 20) are -430.
Leonard Fournette anytime touchdown and Jaguars win (+130)
You'd think I was some kind of Leonard Fournette fanboy for how much I've written about him in this column, but his usage is one of the highest in the league and they come into Sunday's game against the Bengals as four-point road favorites. He has -150 odds to score any time, and taking that with the favorite to win (the Jaguars moneyline is -198, while covering the 4.0-point spread is -110) gets us a much nicer payout. Fournette's touchdown odds are firmly aided by the fact that no team in the NFL has allowed more rushing touchdowns or receiving touchdowns to running backs, and while there's no yardage consideration in the bet, the Bengals have allowed the second-most rushing yards this season.
Bills defense/special teams anytime touchdown and Bills win (+310)
The Bills are huge 16.5-point favorites at home against the Dolphins, but they don't really rely on their offense to blow teams out. The game total of 41.0 reflects that, but if the Bills are going to cover (which the market seems to think will happen since the Bills are -120 to cover versus +100 not to), they may need their defense/special teams to put some points on the board. The Bills defense/special teams scoring is +290, but as such big favorites, you may as well push it to +310.
Ravens and Seahawks to each score 1+ rushing TD and 1+ passing TD (+170)
This one is admittedly a bit funky, but we come in with the benefit of two running quarterbacks who can be responsible for all of the four touchdowns we need for this to pay off. The 3.0-point spread is a bit surprising since it implies that the teams would be equal on a neutral field, and the prevailing opinion seems to be that the Seahawks are better. Nevertheless, Wilson comes in with 14 passing touchdowns, which trails only Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan, while Jackson is only three behind. Additionally, only Deshaun Watson has scored more rushing touchdowns than Wilson's three, and Jackson is only one behind him there. This bet doesn't make as much sense in nearly any other matchup, but with both quarterbacks able to run the ball, we get an added boost to the rushing TD side in a game with a total of nearly 50.
