Streaming Defenses: Week 5 Options

Week 4 was less than spectacular for this column, marking the first time all season our No. 1 streaming recommendation failed to reach double-digit fantasy points (humblebrag alert). The Colts were a bust with three points, while our second and third picks — Pittsburgh and Seattle — combined for 35. 

I'd like to brag about those results, but the fourth choice (Atlanta) put up a goose egg and the fifth (Denver) managed just five points. All in all, our five streaming picks averaged a healthy 8.6 fantasy points, but that doesn't mean much if you started the Colts and ended up losing a close matchup.

I did caution that last week was a tricky one for streaming, with the best matchups mostly going to defenses that were widely owned in fantasy leagues. This week looks much better, starting with my Super Bowl pick (fly Eagles, fly) playing at home against an 0-3 team that may need to start Luke Falk at quarterback.

For injury/ranking updates throughout the week, follow me on Twitter (@RotowireNFL_JD).

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses with ownership under 60 percent on Yahoo or 30 percent on ESPN as of Tuesday morning. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 5

1. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. New York Jets)

37% Yahoo ownership, 42% ESPN

Team implied total: 28.75 (3rd of 30)

Opponent implied total: 14.75 (29th)

Upcoming Ranks — Week 6: 5th (at MIN), Week 7: 18th (at DAL)

The Philadelphia defense admittedly has been a disappointment this year, with the familiar issues at cornerback perhaps compounded by the loss of interior pass rushers Malik Jackson (foot) and Tim Jernigan (foot). There's still plenty of talent at each level of this defense, including DT Fletcher Cox, DE Brandon Graham, LB Nigel Bradham and S Malcolm Jenkins. 

Of course, the primary appeal here is the matchup, with the Jets allowing 12.3 fantasy points per game (third-most) to team defenses, despite turning the ball over just three times in three games. Their total of 33 points this season includes a pair of defensive touchdowns, and 4.3 sacks per game is tied for the fifth-worst mark in the league. If you don't trust me, trust the oddsmakers — the Jets are 14-point underdogs with an implied total of 14.75. 

Note: I'll probably move the Eagles two spots down in my rankings — below the Bears and Titans — if Sam Darnold (mono) ends up playing.

2. Tennessee Titans (vs. Buffalo Bills)

24% Yahoo ownership, 34% ESPN

Team implied total: 20.75 (22nd)

Opponent implied total: 17.75 (28th)

Upcoming Ranks — Week 6: 12th (at DEN), Week 7: 13th (vs. LAC)

Whether it's Josh Allen (concussion) or Matt Barkley, the Bills will be under the guidance of one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league for Week 5. Allen's sloppy play has resulted in his team allowing the second-most fantasy points to D/STs (12.5), even while winning three of four games. The rest of the team has been more than good enough, but Allen holds the following ranks among qualified passers: 30th in completion percentage (60.3), 30th in TD percentage (2.3), 33rd in INT percentage (4.6), 25th in YPA (6.9) and 17th in sack rate (6.4).

Meanwhile, the Tennessee defense is sixth in fantasy scoring at 10.75 points per game, led by double-digit performances on the road in Cleveland and Atlanta. The Titans have allowed 20 or fewer points each week this year, piling up 13 sacks and six takeaways in the process. The No. 13 cumulative defense grade from PFF is slightly less encouraging, but nonetheless indicative of a unit that should do well as home favorites against the likes of Allen or Barkley.

3. Buffalo Bills (at Tennessee Titans)

52% Yahoo ownership, 54% ESPN

Team implied total: 17.75 (28th)

Opponent implied total: 20.75 (22nd)

Upcoming Ranks — Week 6: Bye, Week 7: 1st (vs. MIA)

The Bills head to Tennessee as underdogs, but they'll do so with the backing of an elite defense, one that just held Tom Brady under 4.0 YPA for the fifth time in his 271 regular-season starts. Buffalo has allowed 17 or fewer points each week this season, limiting QBs to 5.1 YPA and RBs to 4.1 YPC. Only the Patriots and Bears rank higher in PFF's cumulative defense grades, with the Bills landing four players — including both safeties — in the top 15 at their respective positions.

I discussed the Titans' impressive Week 4 performance in my Hidden State Line column posted Tuesday, but I'm not ready to reevaluate Marcus Mariota (or his coaches) after one good game. Mariota still ranks last among qualified passers in sack rate (12.5), after also finishing last (11.3) in 2018. His cautious approach doesn't lead to a ton of turnovers, but it does contribute to some big games for D/STs in the less influential categories — sacks and points allowed.

4. New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

41% Yahoo ownership, 42% ESPN

Team implied total: 25.0 (t-9th)

Opponent implied total: 22.0 (17th)

Upcoming Ranks — Week 6: 16th (at JAX), Week 7: 8th (at CHI)

The Tampa offense looked great in Los Angeles against a good defense, but we still have a large sample showing that Jameis Winston provides a favorable matchup for D/ST units. He's on pace for 48 sacks and 20 interceptions, looking unlikely to break his four-year streak of finishing in the bottom half of the league for INT rate among qualified passers — 29th in 2015, 27th in 2016, 20th in 2017, 31st in 2018, now 31st in 2019. The Bucs are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to team defenses (11.5 per game), after giving up the seventh-most (9.0) last season. I don't doubt that Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will feast on an inconsistent secondary, but Winston is likely to hand the New Orleans defense a gift or three in the process.

5. San Francisco 49ers (vs. Cleveland Browns)

25% Yahoo ownership, 5% ESPN

Team implied total: 25.0 (t-9th)

Opponent implied total: 21.5 (t-20th)

Upcoming Ranks — Week 6: 18th (at LAR), Week 7: 4th (at WAS)

The Browns finally looked like the sum of their parts last week in Baltimore, with huge performances by Nick Chubb and Jarvis Landry (concussion) helped along by shoddy tackling from the Ravens. This pick is actually more about the quality of the defense than the matchup, with the 49ers D/ST averaging the second-most fantasy points per game (13.7) while allowing just 6.5 YPA to QBs and 3.3 YPC to RBs. 

Week 5 Rankings

1. New England Patriots (at WAS)

2. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NYJ)

3. Chicago Bears (at OAK)

4. Tennessee Titans (vs. BUF)

5. Buffalo Bills (at TEN)

6. New Orleans Saints (vs. TB)

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (at CAR)

8. Minnesota Vikings (at NYG)

9. San Francisco 49ers (vs. CLE)

10. Carolina Panthers (vs. JAX)

11. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. DEN)

12. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. IND)

13. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. ARZ)

14. Houston Texans (vs. ATL)

15. Baltimore Ravens (at PIT)

16. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. BAL)

17. Arizona Cardinals (at CIN)

18. New York Giants (vs. MIN)

19. Seattle Seahawks (vs. LAR)

20. Los Angeles Rams (at SEA)

Looking Ahead to Week 6

1. New England Patriots (vs. NYG)

2. Baltimore Ravens (vs. CIN)

3. Dallas Cowboys (at NYJ)

4. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. PIT)

5. Philadelphia Eagles (at MIN)

6. Carolina Panthers (at TB)

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CAR)

8. Los Angeles Rams (vs. SF)

9. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. HOU)

10. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. NO)

11. Green Bay Packers (vs. DET)

12. Tennessee Titans (at DEN)

13. Washington Redskins (at MIA)

14. Denver Broncos (vs. TEN)

15. Atlanta Falcons (at ARZ)

16. New Orleans Saints (at JAX)

17. Cleveland Browns (vs. SEA)

18. San Francisco 49ers (at LAR)

19. Minnesota Vikings (vs. PHI)

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (at LAC)

Rest-of-Season Rankings

1. New England Patriots

2. Chicago Bears

3. Buffalo Bills

4. Los Angeles Rams

5. Minnesota Vikings

6. Jacksonville Jaguars

7. San Francisco 49ers

8. Dallas Cowboys

9. Cleveland Browns

10. Green Bay Packers

11. Baltimore Ravens

12. Philadelphia Eagles

13. Detroit Lions

14. Tennessee Titans

15. New Orleans Saints

16. Carolina Panthers

17. Houston Texans

18. Kansas City Chiefs

19. Los Angeles Chargers

20. Indianapolis Colts