On Target: Week 1 Fallout

On Target: Week 1 Fallout

This article is part of our On Target series.

The fantasy football community has gotten so much more intelligent over the last five years, as Daily Fantasy has really helped us hone in on the information that is important. On my podcast (The Taekcast, which can be found on iTunes), a recent guest remarked to me that basically no analyst can get by on "gut feel" anymore, which is true. We are all chasing data, and the data we have found to be most predictive has been opportunity. As such, I think even from a small Week 1 sample, there are volume situations for us to take notice of and use in an actionable way.

Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense

Andrew Luck had the third-lowest average intended depth of target (essentially aDOT, with passes thrown away removed from the equation) against the Bengals in Week 1. This does shift my volume expectation for this offense after entering the season assuming that T.Y. Hilton had a shot at a truly gargantuan target share. That will not prove to be true with Ryan Grant actually leading the team in targets last week, and both Nyheim Hines and Jack Doyle acting like safety valves in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Hines seemed like an afterthought heading into the season, but if he retains this Darren Sproles-esque role, I expect him to be a PPR flex play on most weeks. There is also room for Chester Rogers' role to grow as he played a majority of the

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Davis Mattek
Davis Mattek has played DFS for a living for over a year and began in the fantasy sports industry in 2012. He is a member of the FSTA and FSWA.
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