This article is part of our FanDuel College Football series.
We are drawing closer and closer to the end of the season, which opens the door for big games on a weekly basis. This week's slate features a bevy of ranked matchups in the form of Oklahoma-Baylor, Minnesota-Iowa, Notre Dame-Navy and Auburn-Georgia. Of those top-tier matchups, Oklahoma leads the way in the implied points category (39) and is also the biggest favorite (-10.5). Ohio State clears the field in implied points by more than 10, owning an implied score of 57.0 versus a downtrodden Rutgers squad. Clemson (46.8), LSU (43.3) and Oklahoma State (42.3) round out teams expected to top 40 points this weekend. Oklahoma State-Kansas and Oklahoma-Baylor (both 67.5) lead the over-under totals, with Texas-Iowa State, and LSU-Ole Miss claiming the other two games with over-unders of 65 and above.
Week 11 Review
- FanDuel Lineup Optimizer
- Team Trends
- Defense vs. Position
- Team Rankings
- DFS Main Slate Primer
Link to matchup chart for sorting/research purposes
Note: RotoWire expected scores are generated by a mathematical equation excluding special teams and points directly off turnovers (from what I understand).
Week 12 Plays
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma ($12,000) at Baylor
Hurts is the definition of matchup-proof at this point, regardless of the price tag. To reach three times value for the week, he would need to total 36 points, a total he has reached in every game versus power-five opponents this season. He will face his toughest test to date versus a Baylor defense that checks in 14th in the SP+ rankings and allows just 210.3 passing yards per game. However, that Baylor defensive 11 has faced just one top-10 passing offense this season in Iowa State and Brock Purdy, who proceeded to throw for 342 yards and two touchdowns in the contest. Hurts and the Oklahoma offense rank fifth in the country in passing, and Hurts also adds a big ground element that should play out fine Saturday.
Brock Purdy, Iowa State ($10,200) vs. Texas
Speaking of Purdy, this week is a week where he has the perfect storm of elements for a huge game. Not only does he face a Texas defense allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 299.6 passing yards per game and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game, but Iowa State is only a seven-point favorite in that contest. Purdy is coming off of a 42.78-point performance against Oklahoma and takes on a Texas squad that can put up points in a similar fashion. The only difference is that the Longhorns' defense allows points at a much higher rate. Purdy has thrown for 378 and 382 yards against the only two teams he has faced sporting defenses outside the top 100 this season and he gets another such matchup Saturday, so a big output should be expected.
Tyler Huntley, Utah ($8,000) vs. UCLA
When we dig into the depths of the quarterback position looking for a value play, the best place to start is a good matchup. That is exactly what Huntley receives Saturday against versus a UCLA defense surrendering 294.3 passing yards per game and a slate-high 2.8 passing touchdowns per contest. The second element to look for is upside, and Huntley has proven to have that as well. He has topped 21 points on three occasions and posted a 36.46-point effort against Washington State earlier in the campaign. Although he hans't run a ton of late, Huntley does possess a dual-threat ability and should provide excellent value Saturday.
Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State ($10,600) vs. Kansas
I wouldn't blame you for choosing what I would anticipate being a lesser owned Jonathan Taylor ($10,400) on Saturday either, but Hubbard has everything you want out of the running back position. For starters, his volume is essentially guaranteed, having run the ball 20 or more times in every game this season. He has tallied fewer than 26.5 FanDuel points just once this season, when he was "held" to 116 rushing yards and a touchdown three weeks ago versus Iowa State. Hubbard also receives one of his better matchups of the season Saturday as well, taking on a Kansas team that surrenders 5.0 yards per rush attempt and a slate-high 235.3 rushing yards per contest. The game script fits perfectly as well. Oklahoma State enters as 17-point favorites, which would allow them to focus on the ground game in a game that should be close enough to keep the starters on the field. Kansas has also allowed a whopping 17 rushes of 20-plus yards, while Hubbard leads the country in carries of that length (17).
Eno Benjamin, Arizona State ($8,400) at Oregon State
Benjamin has fallen off the radar this season, but he entered the year as one of the more hyped backs in the country after running for 1,642 yards and 16 scores last season. The junior tailback gets the nation's 95th-ranked defense in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (192.7) Saturday, giving him an opportunity to regain some of that luster he had coming into the year. The largest part of Benjamin's fantasy downfall in recent weeks is a lack of touchdowns. Benjamin has not reached pay dirt in any of the last three games after scoring eight times over the first five contests. Oregon State allows two rushing scores per game this season, leaving a good chance that Benjamin will make his way into the end zone again this week. He has also faced just two defenses ranking outside the top 90 this season, recording 26.1 points versus Washington State and 18.9 versus Kent State. The price is ripe enough to warrant Benjamin's usage for those looking in the middle range of backs.
Master Teague, Ohio State ($7,100) at Rutgers
Much like last week, this week sets up for a fair amount of usage out of Ohio State's second-string backs and beyond. Despite running for 111 yards and snaring a pass for 10 more, Teague's price only rose $500 from what it was last week. He didn't even reach pay dirt last week, but it wouldn't be surprising if he rectified that Saturday. Ohio State owns the biggest spread (-52.5) by a wide margin and faces a Rutgers team letting up 5.0 yards per carry and, most importantly, 2.7 rushing scores per game. Teague has seen double-digit carries in all but two games this season and should see a fairly hefty workload again Saturday when this gets out of hand.
Bonus: Jamale Carothers, Navy ($6,500) at Notre Dame
Carothers has only carried the rock double-digit times just once this season, but he has emerged as a major threat over the last four games. After scoring twice against Tulsa and UCF, Carothers upped his game and seven times in two contests against Tulane and UConn. To be fair, both defenses rank outside the top 75 in the country, but Notre Dame still ranks 62nd on that list. The Irish have faced just two top-26 rush offenses all season in Georgia (24) and Louisville (26) and allowed more than five yards per carry to each of them. Navy checks in as the nation's best rush offense, averaging 357.9 rushing yards per contest as part of the triple-option offense, and Carothers is the man the Navy coaching staff seems to have settled on for looks near the goal line.
Devin Duvernay, Texas ($9,200) at Iowa State
While Iowa State, according the matchup chart, doesn't look to be the best of opponents to targets, the opposition's top wideout has seemingly found success in the majority of games this season. Ceedee Lamb paced the Sooners last week with eight grabs for 167 yards and two scores and Tylan Wallace went off to the tune of eight grabs for 131 yards and a score in Iowa State's previous game. While Duvernay might not quite reach those levels of elite at the position, he isn't too far behind. The Longhorns are slight underdogs in what is expected to be a shootout and Collin Johnson, second at the wide receiver position for the Longhorns, is a question mark for the contest. All of these factors point toward Duvernay seeing a hefty chunk of targets Saturday as he looks to return to the end zone after being held out last week versus Kansas State.
Justin Jefferson, LSU, ($8,800) at Ole Miss
It's kind of a pick your poison in the LSU passing game each week, but it's difficult to pinpoint exactly who will go off. Jefferson scored a touchdown in six straight games versus FBS opponents before being held out in each of the last two weeks. The slight downturn has allowed his price to drop to a point that warrants his usage in a solid matchup versus an Ole Miss defense surrendering 274.2 passing yards per game and 7.3 yards per pass attempt. What makes LSU's passing game slightly more intriguing Saturday is that Ole Miss has proven somewhat stingy in the ground game, allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt, so it could be a week to stray away from it a bit more after running 20 times with Clyde Edwards-Helaire last Saturday and 14 times with Joe Burrow. Jefferson should be one of the clear options to benefit if that's the case.
Stephon Robinson Jr., Kansas ($8,400) at Oklahoma State
Robinson's momentum that had built over three straight games came to a halt last week against Kansas State, but the Wildcats' defense ranks best in the Big 12 and 30th nationally despite being part of a pass-happy conference. That matchup softens against this week versus an Oklahoma State defense allowing 275.6 passing yards per game, 7.6 yards per attempt and 1.9 passing touchdowns per contest. Robinson fits in as the team's primary deep threat, averaging 10.4 yards per target, which matches up extremely well versus a Cowboys defense that has given up 27 passes of 25-plus yards in just nine games. Only five teams who have played just nine games and 11 teams overall have allowed more. Robinson leads the Jayhawks with a 25.8 percent target share in the last two games and owns an impressive 15.5 yards per target over that span. Only DeVonta Smith sports a higher yards per target total of players averaging at least eight targets per contest in the last three weeks.
Deshaunte Jones, Iowa State ($7,500) vs. Texas
On numerous occasions this season, I have highlighted my love for the slot receiver against the Longhorns defense. This is a particularly juicy option this week for Deshaunte Jones, who works out of the slot and leads the Cyclones with 8.1 targets per game. The only downfall to Jones' game is that he has only reached pay dirt once all season, but that shouldn't be a deterrent at his price point given what I highlighted in Brock Purdy's section about the passing game versus defenses outside the top 100. It's also worth noting that Jones scored four touchdowns last season and six back in 2016, so this could be week he finally makes his way back to pay dirt.