This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
While the eight-game Saturday slate appears enticing at first, a variety of key injuries have whittled away our options, leaving a paltry five games to bet on as of this writing. As a result, I'll pivot away from my usual breakdown, highlighting just a couple of my favorite bets overall for Saturday.
Colin Sexton under 24.5 points (-120)
I've often tried to target any point guards going against the Heat given how dominant they've been defensively against that position, but DraftKings has almost aggressively moved the lines lower than normal in conjunction with the Miami matchup.
Saturday presents the first time where we can really target a "normal" figure as Sexton is averaging 23.9 points per game this season. The dynamic point guard has been getting more involved as of late, averaging 25.6 points per game over his last seven contests, but look no further than the March 16 contest when the Heat held Sexton to just 21 points on 7-of-17 from the field to justify this betting line.
The odds aren't great, but this feels like a relative lock given how the Saturday slate is shaping up.
Svi Mykhailiuk over 12.5 points (-107)
This might be one of the few remaining times we can catch a couple of these new starters at relatively low o/u totals. Mykhailiuk posted a dud Friday, scoring just six points in a game that turned into a laugher by the end of the first half, but prior to that contest the ex-Piston had scored at least 10 points in each of his past five starts.
The Trail Blazers allow the third-most points to opposing shooting guards, but perhaps more importantly for Mykhailiuk, Portland allows the fourth-best three-point percentage to SGs in the entire league. No Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (foot) has forced the Thunder to re-configure the offensive attack, and while the combo of Isaiah Roby and Moses Brown should be relatively potent against an under-sized Blazers starting five, I do think Mykhailiuk can be a factor on the perimeter.
I'm concerned about a blowout given the Trail Blazers are favored by 12 in this contest, but considering how poorly Oklahoma City played Friday, I'm willing to bet this rag-tag group can be a bit more competitive, giving Mykhailiuk a chance to hit his over.
Theo Maledon over 3.5 rebounds (-143)
We'll stick in the same game to round out the article. It's not great odds, but considering the Trail Blazers allow the most rebounds to opposing backcourts I'm kinda surprised to not see this one higher.
Maledon is averaging 4.8 rebounds in the month of March, including a seven-game stretch in which the rookie guard posted at least four rebounds per contest. Again, whether or not this game remains competitive is certainly a looming question mark, but it's not as if Maledon, or anyone in the Thunder's starting five, was over-taxed in Friday's laugher, so the concerns about back-to-back games are less present.
