FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Luckily for us, we were able to get a Boston victory on Friday to extend the Eastern Conference Finals. That has us looking at a critical Game 6 and we could have our NBA finalists decided today. That's exciting for all of us, but it's also slightly disappointing because it means the season is nearing its end. It's been an amazing run and I look forward to coming back for more next season.  

Slate Overview  

BOS vs MIA: Game 5 was the most lopsided fixture in the series. Boston rode a 70-50 second half to a dominating win, leading by double-digits for most of the fourth quarter.  

We're looking at the Celtics entering this matchup as a 3.5-point favorite. That's strangely the largest spread we've seen in this series and that's bizarre considering they're the ones down in the series. In terms of the total, it's sitting at 214.5. It just continues to rise, with four of the five games being overs thus far.  

The Heat are up 3-2 in the series. That means a victory for them would send them to the NBA Finals against the Lakers while a win for Boston would force a grueling Game 7.  

Positional Breakdown  

MVP (2x): In the last article, I said Jayson Tatum and Bam Adebayo were the only options for this slot. I was wrong! Tatum is the only guy who should be considered for the MVP slot. He's been absolutely absurd in this series and provided yet another gem in Game 5. In fact, he finished with 31 points, 10 rebounds and six assists across 43 minutes to establish his dominance.  

STAR (1.5x): There are a few guys worth considering here. They include Jaylen Brown, Bam Adebayo, Kemba Walker and Jimmy Butler. All are capable of 50-point gems and all are averaging over 30 FanDuel points per game. That makes this a tough choice, but it's hard to overlook the fact Adebayo has produced at least 39 FD points in 10 of his last 12 games while averaging 43 fantasy points per game over that span.

PRO (1.2x): That leaves Butler, Walker and Brown for this slot. This is another tough call, but we're going to go with Butler. The reason for that is because of his floor. After dropping 42 FD points in Game 5, JB has now scored at least 33 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games. What makes that even more amazing is the fact he's struggling with his shot in the series. Miami surely wants to avoid a Game 7 and that's going to make Jimmy Buckets as hungry as anyone on the court.

UTIL: With Tatum, Adebayo and Butler all gone, that leaves us with Walker, Brown, Daniel Theis, Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, Marcus Smart and Gordon Hayward for these last two slots. It's going to be tough to get Walker or Brown in there with the salary restrictions from Tatum, Butler and Bam, making Theis and Crowder the best options here.  

Injury Situations to Monitor  

The injuries don't really matter on this slate with no one in the rotation on the injury report but there are still a few out there.  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.  

Gabe Vincent, MIA (knee) - QUESTIONABLE  

Romeo Langford, BOS (wrist) - OUT  

Chris Silva, MIA (pelvis) - OUT 

Elite Players  

It's pretty obvious Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown are the best plays on the board. These five are all amazing options and it's going to be imperative to pick the right three or four. The guy who's tough to fade is Tatum and we'll talk about that in the next section. As for the other four, they all offer 30-point floors and will likely finish around 40 FD points. That makes it really tough and it's more about luck than anything on a slate like this. 

Expected Chalk  

Jayson Tatum, BOS ($16,000)  

Tatum is the most-used player on all of these single-game slates and rightfully so. The simple fact is you can't fade him. The reason for that is because Tatum has scored at least 51 FD points in six of his last seven games while averaging 54 fantasy points per game during that stretch. No one is even close to that and it's going to force him into everybody's lineup.  

Bam Adebayo, MIA ($14,500) 

Bam has also been universally rostered throughout the series and it's easy to see when looking at his averages in the STAR section writeup. It's his reliability that's forcing him into lots of lineups and one has to imagine 40 FD points represents his floor in this critical Game 6.   

Key Values  

Jae Crowder, MIA ($9,500)  

We're going to go with the exact same two players here as we did on Friday. The reason for that is because both treated us with great games and both remain way too undervalued. We'll start things off with Crowder, who went back to his usual 30 FD points on Friday. It actually marked the ninth time that he's scored at least 28 fantasy points in his last 10 outings, playing 34 minutes a game over that span. That makes him hard to fade below $10K.  

Daniel Theis, BOS ($9,500) 

Theis was a huge hit for us on Friday and we have to go right back to the well. He collected 15 points and 13 rebounds, which brought his average to 26 FanDuel points per game over his last 13 outings. That's a ridiculous total from a player south of $10K and it's clear he's going to play a similar role in yet another must-win game. We also love Theis's floor, scoring at least 18 FD points in 14 straight games.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Joel Bartilotta plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Joelbartilotta Yahoo: Joelbartilotta.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joel Bartilotta
Joel has 15 years of Fantasy experience, and can recall riding a young Daunte Culpepper to a championship in the 2003-04 season in his inaugural fantasy year. He covers NBA, NFL, daily fantasy, EPL, and MLB for RotoWire.
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