This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Thursday's nine-game is short on elite talent, which only complicates our build scenarios tonight. I'll be building around a corps of solid 7k-range players in hopes of a big score in both cash and GPP scenarios.
SLATE OVERVIEW
IND(-1.5) vs. DEN, O/U: 208.5
CLE (-2) vs. CHA, O/U: 211.5
MIA (-5.5) vs. TOR, O/U: 214.5
MIN (-4) vs. GS, O/U: 219
UTA (-3.5) @ CHI, O/U: 210.5
DAL (-7.5) vs. BKN, O/U: 221
SA (-2) vs. OKC, O/U: 218
SAC (-4.5) vs. MEM, O/U: 224.5
LAC (-12.5) vs. DET, O/U: 224
The O/U numbers aren't great tonight. The only game I really avoided tonight was the CHA/CLE matchup, and every other contest got at least some exposure.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Andrew Wiggins (illness) QUESTIONABLE
Jeff Teague (knee) QUESTIONABLE
I'm not the biggest fan of this back-to-back game for the Wolves and might fade the opportunities altogether, but the maladies in Minnesota still need to be mentioned. I would think the most likely return tonight would be Wiggins, but the AM shoot-around should bring in more information for us. For Towns, Gorgui Dieng ($6,500) is locked in as the backup, and I'd look to Shabazz Napier ($5,900) for Teague. If Wiggins is out again, I still like Robert Covington ($5600).
D'Angelo Russell (illness) OUT
Alec Burks ($6,500) is my favorite pivot here, but as I said before, this isn't a game I'd be focusing on too much.
Kristaps Porzingis (knee) QUESTIONABLE
After a scratch on Tuesday, there isn't any word about the extent of Porzingis' injury. His fragility is well-documented, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Mavs keep him on the bench. If he's out, Dwight Powell ($5,600) and Maxi Kleber ($5,500) would see the biggest boost in production.
Malcolm Brogdon (back): DOUBTFUL
It's a safe assumption that Brogdon is out, so your early lineup builds can include Aaron Holiday ($5,700), or T.J. McConnell ($4,300) works as a decent tournament option.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
If Hardaway remains out, Seth Curry ($4,000) would step in and provide one of the best values on the slate.
Gary Harris (shin) QUESTIONABLE
Torrey Craig ($3,400) got the start Tuesday and didn't do much. With Mike Conley also out, I think Joe Ingles ($5,900) and Jordan Clarkson ($5,000) is where you should look if Harris sits.
ELITE PLAYERS
Luka Doncic, DAL ($12,000) vs. BKN
Brooklyn sets up as a team Doncic could easily exploit, and he'll also end up shouldering the load if Porzingis is out. I think you can play the slate without him, and the numbers quickly indicate that the value isn't there relative to his floor, but you still have to give him a thought tonight. It's very similar to Wednesday's slate, where LeBron basically was the make-or-break elite pick. If Doncic pops for 70, you're behind the pace without him. It's close, but I'll still give him about 50 percent exposure.
Nikola Jokic, DEN ($9,100) @ IND
Although we have no recent information for this matchup, the interior game is almost identical to last year, and Jokic met projections in three games played against Indiana last season. The sportsbooks are giving Denver no respect in this game, and I think it's an exploitable spot for you sports bettors out there. Jokic will be pivotal in all aspects of this game.
Paul George, LAC ($8,800) vs. DET
I've been able to watch the Clippers over the past few weeks, and I think one observation trumps all others in observing them. We probably won't see the true version of this team until the playoffs because unlike George, Kawhi fades into the woodwork until he's needed. Leonard can take over a game when he wants to, but I don't think Detroit poses enough of a challenge to bring out Kawhi's best game. That's why I'll fade him and go with George instead.
Jimmy Butler, MIA vs. TOR
Butler had a huge 63 DKFP triple-double performance against the Raptors in their last meeting. He averages about 3 DKDP more per game at home, and right now the Raptors are soft in multiple situations without Pascal Siakam. Considering he put up that huge score with Siakam at full health, one could safely assume that Butler will do more damage with less resistance.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA ($7,600) vs. OKC
I saw this favorable price for Aldridge, drilled down a bit and found that he went off on the Thunder when they last met, resulting in a decisive win for the Spurs. Aldridge is also coming off two consecutive double-doubles, and I see no reason why he can't extend that streak tonight.
DeMar DeRozan, SA ($7,400) vs. OKC
Do I smell a Spurs stack? Not exactly. Maybe I'd do that with a GPP lineup, but I would likely diversify my cash build a bit more. Depending on how those builds went, I'd want the Spurs in there regardless, so DeRozan could fill that need if I happened to go another way with the big men. DeRozan is on a nice run of games right now, scoring 20 points or more for five straight games.
Will Barton, DEN ($6,700) @ IND
Barton's floor settles between 5x and 6x value at this price, and I think you can justify a boost prediction with Gary Harris' shin issue. As I said, I'm taking Denver and the points all day here, and I think Barton's stat line will be a reflection of the team's success.
Lou Williams, LAC ($6,300) vs. DET
When I think Leonard's potential is muted, a pivot to Williams is the most sensible play. I'm fully aware that the script could flip and Leonard could prove me a fool, but just like Stephen A. Smith, I'd rather be loud and wrong. I'm giving Sweet Lou more exposure than I normally would and while some of that excitement is due to Kawhi, it's also worthwhile to mention that Williams has a very solid floor against the Pistons over the past two seasons.
Also consider: Richaun Holmes, SAC ($7,100), Dejounte Murray, SA ($6,000)
VALUE PLAYS
Marquese Chriss, GS ($5,400) @ MIN
Assuming Towns remains out, I think Chriss comes in at a nice value with both Kevon Looney and Willie Cauley-Stein out tonight. Chriss has played well when given maximum opportunity, and he'll receive that in spades tonight.
Dillon Brooks, MEM ($4,700) @ SAC
I'll admit I waffled a bit here and seriously considered Brandon Clarke ($5,100) instead, but I think Brooks is due for a bump, especially with Jae Crowder holding a questionable tag tonight. If for some reason he doesn't come through with a big night, his floor still gives you ok value at this price, so the damage you'd sustain would be minimal. Another wrinkle is De'Anthony Melton ($3,600) who could siphon some minutes from Brooks.
Duncan Robinson, MIA ($4,300) vs. TOR
Robinson is a risk-reward guy who is doing his best to shake the risk part of that description. I don't know that I'd play him if I had Jimmy Butler, but combine his increased minutes with a great 30 DKFP day in his last game against Toronto, and you've got a reasonable place to land in the bargain bin.
Tyus Jones, MEM ($3,600) @ SAC
Jones isn't the starter, but he's logging enough minutes to be relevant, and his overall impact would increase if Ja Morant is slow out of the gate. Morant is in a bit of a shooting slump right now, and there's a direct correlation between his struggles and Jones' opportunity.
