This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Last week's article went really well, with Bogdan Bogdanovic having one of his best games of the year as our highlight player. Unfortunately for us, we have just four games in this night slate but many of the best teams in the league are on display. That should make for a fun night of basketball, so let's get into it!
Slate Overview
BOS vs. CHA: This is easily the most lopsided game of the night. We have a 19-7 Boston team playing a 13-19 Charlotte club, with the Celtics entering this matchup as a double-digit favorite. It also marks a revenge game for Kemba Walker and Terry Rozier, but those two looked awful the one time these teams faced off.
MIL vs. IND: While this is a battle of top teams in the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee enters this matchup as a 7.5-point favorite with a 219-point total. That's no surprise with them winning 20 of their last 21 games. It should also be a defensive struggle with Indiana sitting fourth in points allowed and Milwaukee owning the best defensive rating in the NBA.
OKC vs. LAC: Oklahoma City has been much better recently, having won six of their last eight. That's why I have the Clippers as a 3.5-point favorite with a total in the 220-range. It also marks Paul George's first game back in OKC and we should have some revenge narratives with he and Chris Paul facing their former teams.
LAL vs. DEN: This represents the highlight game of the night. These are two of the top-3 teams in the Western Conference and this could very well be a Conference Finals preview. What makes these teams so good is their defense, with both sitting Top-4 in both defensive efficiency and points allowed. That's why we have the Lakers entering as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 209.
Positional Breakdown
PG: It's rare to see no point guards above $8,000, but there's a ton of guys below that. In fact, we have Chris Paul, Kemba Walker, Malcolm Brogdon and Terry Rozier all between $7,400 and $8,000. Jamal Murray is just below that at $6,800 and the next highest guy is Patrick Beverley. If you're looking for someone cheap, Rajon Rondo, Aaron Holiday and George Hill are all nice options in what are expected to be expanded roles.
SG: Devonte' Graham comes in as the highest-priced player here at $7,700. After that, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Schroder and Khris Middleton make up the $6,000-tier. Cheaper options include guys like Donte DiVincenzo, Lou Williams, Gary Harris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo is the highest-priced player on the slate, sitting at $11,200. Paul George is next at $9,000 and Jaylen Brown follows up at $7,000. Danilo Gallinari, Will Barton, and Miles Bridges make up the middle-tier and there's really no good cheap options.
PF: Anthony Davis is probably the best raw points play on the board, seeing an expanded role in the absence of LeBron James. Kawhi Leonard and Domantas Sabonis are interesting options below $9,000 and Jayson Tatum follows them up at $7,600. After that, Paul Millsap Daniel Theis, Kyle Kuzma, Jerami Grant and Ersan Ilyasova are all in play depending on injuries.
C: Nikola Jokic is the cream of the crop at center, sitting at $9,700. Steven Adams, Montrezl Harrell and Myles Turner all sit in the $6,000-range and all three possess high upside. In terms of cheap centers, Brook Lopez, JaVale McGee and Enes Kanter are all worth considering.
Injuries to Monitor
Gordon Hayward (BOS): Hayward enters this matchup questionable with a foot issue. And if he sits, look for Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum to take on most of his usage.
Marcus Smart (BOS): The gritty shooting guard remains out due to an eye infection. Brown has been superb in his absence.
Jeremy Lamb (IND): Lamb has missed the last two games because of a groin issue and Aaron Holiday got a start for him on Friday.
Victor Oladipo (IND): Oladipo remains out because of knee surgery, as Malcolm Brogdon has essentially taken over his role.
Domantas Sabonis (IND): Sabonis is dealing with a hip issue and enters this matchup with a questionable tag. If he's out, Myles Turner becomes one of the best plays on the board.
P.J. Washington (CHA): Washington is out because of a finger issue and it's made Bismack Biyombo fantasy relevant as the Hornets' starting center.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): Antetokounmpo played on Saturday with a hip issue and it's very possible he might sit here in the second half of a back-to-back set. If that's the case, Khris Middleton gains the most value while Ersan Ilyasova and Donte DiVincenzo are also fantastic plays.
Eric Bledsoe (MIL): Bledsoe is out because of a leg issue and they've been starting DiVincenzo in his absence.
Kyle Kuzma (LAL): Kuzma has been in and out of the lineup with an ankle issue, but he's fully expected to suit up here.
LeBron James (LAL): James enters this matchup with a doubtful tag due to a back issue. With him out, look for Anthony Davis and Kuzma to gain the most value.
Paul Millsap (DEN): Millsap is dealing with a knee issue and comes into this matchup questionable. If he's out, look for Jerami Grant to start and play 30 minutes.
Kawhi Leonard (LAC): While Leonard is not injured, it's very possible he will sit here in the second half of a back-to-back set. That would make Paul George a great pick and also increases the values of Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell.
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Anthony Davis
These are the two highest-priced players on the slate. While Giannis has been the better player, Davis is the easy choice here. The reason for that is because he gets to play without LeBron James. That should give him a Giannis-like role with much higher upside. We also don't like the fact that the actual Giannis is nicked up and playing the second half of a back-to-back set against a stingy defense.
Domantas Sabonis vs. Kawhi Leonard
Pairing up one of these guys with Davis or Kuzma is going to be very popular and it's an interesting debate between the two. We're going to go with Sabonis because he gets the far better matchup and has been producing more recently. In fact, Sabonis gets to face a Milwaukee teams that owns a 27th OPRK against PFs while Leonard faces a Thunder team who allows the second fewest fantasy points. Not to mention, Leonard could sit in the second half of a B2B. If he does, don't forget about Paul George!
Expected Chalk
Anthony Davis, LAL ($10,600)
With LeBron James expected to miss this game, Davis is going to be the chalkiest player on this slate and rightfully so. That's about 26 points, eight rebounds and 11 assists out of the lineup which doesn't even include the 20 shot attempts, 34 minutes and a 30 percent usage rate. Davis will be happy to take most of that on, as he could easily be looking at 25-30 shots and a 40 percent usage rate. While he will be chalky, Davis is going to be hard to avoid.
Kyle Kuzma, LAL ($3,900)
This might end up being the highest-owned player on the slate. Not only do we expect Kuzma to enter the starting lineup for James, he could also be looking at 30 minutes and double-digit shot attempts. That's all we can ask for from a player this talented and it's crazy he's below $4,000 with a role like this staring him in the face.
Key Values
Rajon Rondo, LAL ($4,600)
Most people are going to look at Kuzma and Davis in the absence of James, and that could make DFS owners overlook Rondo. What's funny about that is the fact James is essentially the point guard and people mainly think of him as a forward. That makes me believe Rondo could enter the starting lineup and handle the ball regularly. If he does that with his 22-point average in 21 minutes of action, we could be looking at 30-plus FanDuel points in an expanded role. And don't overlook Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at $3,900.
Brook Lopez, MIL ($5,100)
Lopez is too good of a player to be priced this cheaply. We're talking about a guy who used to post a 40-point average and is still averaging 26 FanDuel points per game in a "down" year. He's looked much better since Eric Bledsoe went down, scoring at least 33 FD points in three of his last five games while averaging 40 fantasy points per game across his last two fixtures.
