NBA DFS Breakdown: Warriors Without Durant
NBA DFS Breakdown: Warriors Without Durant

This article is part of our NBA DFS Breakdown series.

Warriors (3-2) at Rockets

WarriorsPosInjuryStatusReturn
Kevin DurantFCalfOut5/15/2019
DeMarcus CousinsCQuadricepsOut5/31/2019
Damian JonesCPectoralOut6/1/2019
RocketsPosInjuryStatusReturn
Kenneth FariedCPersonalGTD5/10/2019

Odds

Odds as accurate as 12:47 pm ET

Spread: HOU -7.5, opened -6.0

Money Line: HOU -310, opened -247

Over/Under: 214.5, opened 212.0

Things have gotten interesting. Kevin Durant suffered a calf strain towards the end of Game 5, and he was quickly ruled out for Friday's Game 5. In the wake of the news, bets have flooded towards the Rockets, who are 24-16-2 ATS as the home favorite and 33-9 overall when the home favorite. But data for the Warriors being underdogs on the road is sparse. It's only happened eight times, with Golden State 4-4 ATS and 3-5 overall. Even without Durant, the Warriors are intimidating, and the small sample size of their current situation would make me hesitate to gamble on the outcome of this contest.

The over/under has pushed up as well, and that could be fueled by the Rockets' home court advantage in conjunction with the Warriors missing one of their best defenders in Durant. Plus, Houston is 22-20-4 in relation to the o/u when at home, while Golden State is 26-20 on the road.

Stats through five games

Durant's absence looms large over this game, and it should be the main point of discussion for DFS. Without KD around, the Warriors' offense tends to flow more through Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Per 36 minutes, without KD or DeMarcus Cousins on the floor, Curry sees a usage bump of 13.9% and 13.3 more fantasy points on the road. Under those same conditions, Thompson sees a boost of 12.9% usage and 7.9 fantasy points.

When looking for cheap value options on Golden State, Jonas Jerebko and Alfonzo McKinnie will be where most DFS players turn, as they've seen the most run without Cousins and KD on the floor. However, a lot shouldn't be expected from them. Jerebko averages 0.8 FP/min and McKinnie averages 0.7 FP/min in the aforementioned condition.

Without Durant available to guard him, Harden should be able to thrive, especially as a passer. In 54 possessions guarded by Durant this playoffs, Harden has committed four turnovers to only one assist. Chris Paul has also struggled passing while guarded by Durant, converting four assists to four turnovers in 40 possessions. Eric Gordon will get some relief as well. In 99 possessions guarded by KD, Gordon has shot just 3-of-12 from distance and made four turnovers to one assist. That trio could erupt given the situation.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Barutha plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel Username: unclestosh99, DraftKings Username: Roto_Alex.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Barutha
Alex is RotoWire's NBA Assistant Editor. He writes articles about daily fantasy, year-long fantasy and sports betting. You can hear him on the RotoWire NBA Podcast, Sirius XM, DraftKings Live and other platforms. Vince Carter and Alex both first dunked during their respective sophomore years of high school.
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