Merrill Kelly
35-Year-Old
2024 Stats
W-L
0-0
ERA
0.00
WHIP
0.00
K
0
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Kelly's ratios were nearly equivalent to his breakthrough 2022 season, but he took a different path to get there. Last season, Kelly fanned a career best 25.9 percent of batters he faced, but he also walked them at a 9.6 percent clip, the highest mark of his career. However, the 16.3 percent K-BB% was his best in a full season. Kelly didn't change his pitch mix much, other than throwing a slider a bit and it was effective. His changeup was offering chiefly driving the increase in strikeouts. Despite posting strong ratios in 2022, Kelly wasn't trusted since he didn't miss many bats. Fast forward a year and Kelly is no longer a secret after fanning well more than a batter an inning and enjoying a strong playoff run. He's likely going to be drafted around 100 picks earlier this season, which puts him in risky territory, since that assumes Kelly continues to punch out hitters at the same rate. Don't shy away from Kelly, but don't expect a repeat of last season's newfound dominance. Read Past Outlooks
Logs strong third spring outing
Kelly allowed four hits and one walk while striking out seven over 3.1 innings in Monday's spring start against Oakland.
ANALYSIS
Kelly, on track to pitch the second game of the regular season, was pleased with the shape of his pitches in talking to Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports. "Everything was sharp, fastball is coming out of the hand well, really liking the progress of the slider, I saw some really good swings and misses and some good location on it today," Kelly said. A byproduct of his seven punchouts, however, was an elevated pitch count; Kelly needed 65 pitches to secure those 10 outs. The right-hander will have one more Cactus League start to get the pitches up to the point where he can throw five or six innings in his first start of the regular season.
Kelly, on track to pitch the second game of the regular season, was pleased with the shape of his pitches in talking to Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports. "Everything was sharp, fastball is coming out of the hand well, really liking the progress of the slider, I saw some really good swings and misses and some good location on it today," Kelly said. A byproduct of his seven punchouts, however, was an elevated pitch count; Kelly needed 65 pitches to secure those 10 outs. The right-hander will have one more Cactus League start to get the pitches up to the point where he can throw five or six innings in his first start of the regular season.
Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
Even Split
2024
No Stats
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2022vs Left | .223 | 161 | 76 | 145 | 23 | |||
Since 2022vs Right | .224 | 203 | 54 | 165 | 18 | |||
2024vs Left | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
2024vs Right | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
2023vs Left | .218 | 90 | 38 | 69 | 11 | |||
2023vs Right | .226 | 97 | 31 | 74 | 9 | |||
2022vs Left | .229 | 71 | 38 | 76 | 12 | |||
2022vs Right | .224 | 106 | 23 | 91 | 9 | |||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-28%
ERA at Home
2024
No Stats
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2022Home | 2.82 | 1.10 | 198.0 | 9.5 | 3.0 | ||||
Since 2022Away | 3.90 | 1.23 | 180.0 | 7.8 | 3.2 | ||||
2024Home | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
2024Away | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
2023Home | 2.59 | 1.02 | 93.2 | 10.2 | 3.5 | ||||
2023Away | 4.07 | 1.38 | 84.0 | 8.7 | 3.5 | ||||
2022Home | 3.02 | 1.17 | 104.1 | 8.8 | 2.7 | ||||
2022Away | 3.75 | 1.10 | 96.0 | 7.0 | 2.8 | ||||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Stat Review
How does Merrill Kelly compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
2.71K/9
9.5BB/9
3.5HR/9
1.0Fastball
92.3 mphERA
3.29WHIP
1.19BABIP
.281GB/FB
1.58Left On Base
76.6%Exit Velocity
81.7 mphBarrels/BBE
4.6%Spin Rate
2297 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
23.4%Swinging Strike
12.5%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Merrill Kelly See More
Even with a tough matchup against the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park on Opening Day, Spencer Strider takes the top spot in the first Weekly Pitcher Rankings of the year.
Injuries and signings have caused plenty of shifts in our rankings over the last two weeks, with Elly De La Cruz jumping up six spots due to teammates missing time.
Todd Zola considers the impact of extra rest on starting pitchers and wonders if the Orioles will treat Corbin Burnes with the same care that the Brewers did.
Ronald Acuna holds onto the top spot in the RotoWire Roundtable despite his knee scare, but there's plenty of movement behind him.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
This past season may go down as a career year for Kelly, but that's not to say he's unworthy of consideration for 2023. It will just be tough for him to repeat that level of run prevention over 200 innings. When he's on, Kelly can keep hitters guessing with his diverse repertoire -- he throws his four-seamer, changeup, cutter, sinker and curveball all at least 13% of the time. The stuff has not translated to strikeouts since Kelly made the jump from the Korea Baseball Organization years ago (career 20.8 K%), but he limits walks and can induce manageable contact for the defense behind him. Now 34 years old, Kelly may be on the verge of some age-related decline. Add in that he was pitching over his skis last season and Kelly seems likely to be overlooked in many leagues. Be ready to cut bait if the performance craters, but Kelly is very much in the mix to stream in favorable matchups to begin the season.
More Fantasy News
Features changeup in second start
Kelly allowed two runs on five hits and struck out four over three innings in Wednesday's spring start against the Rockies.
ANALYSIS
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Throws perfect two innings
Kelly struck out three over two scoreless, no-hit innings in Friday's start against the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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Scheduled for spring debut
Kelly is expected to make his spring debut March 8 against the Cubs, Jack Magruder of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Will start Game 2 of World Series
Kelly will start Game 2 of the World Series on Saturday against the Rangers, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Serves up four runs in loss
Kelly took the loss in Tuesday's 10-0 defeat to the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLCS, allowing four runs on three hits and three walks over 5.2 innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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