Manny Machado
Manny Machado
28-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
San Diego Padres
2021 Fantasy Outlook
San Diego's huge investment in Machado paid off in his second season with the club as the veteran finished third in NL MVP voting and led the Padres to their first playoff appearance since 2006. While his hard-contact numbers stayed relatively constant, Machado notched 16 homers in 254 PA by pulling the ball more than ever before (45.0 Pull%). In addition, he increased his batting average nearly 50 points, in part by upping one of the league's lowest line-drive rates (17.4%) in 2019 to a career-high 22.0% last season. The adjusted approach led to career-best marks in a number of key categories, including SLG (.580), ISO (.277) and wRC+ (148). To boot, Machado notched the best walk (10.2%) and strikeout (14.6%) rates of his career. The six-time All Star's finest overall campaign should create lofty expectations for 2021, making him a top-three fantasy third baseman off the board. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#22
ADP
$Signed a 10-year, $300 million contract with the Padres in February of 2019. Contract includes an opt-out clause for 2024.
Plates three, steals base in win
3BSan Diego Padres
June 19, 2021
Machado went 1-for-3 with a three-RBI double, a walk and a stolen base in Saturday's 7-5 win over Cincinnati.
ANALYSIS
The third baseman gave San Diego's its first lead with his three-run double in the fourth inning. He's racked up seven hits in his last five games, and five of them have gone for extra bases (one home run, four doubles), Machado is slashing .249/.332/.443 with 10 homers, 44 RBI, 34 runs scored and seven stolen bases in nine attempts this year.
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Batting Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
13
27
7
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
6
8
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+27%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+5%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+2%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+52%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .988 275 38 21 41 4 .291 .389 .599
Since 2019vs Right .778 912 121 37 135 14 .257 .328 .450
2021vs Left .746 60 10 3 4 0 .188 .350 .396
2021vs Right .782 214 24 7 40 7 .265 .327 .455
2020vs Left .972 69 9 5 10 2 .323 .391 .581
2020vs Right .954 183 35 11 37 4 .300 .366 .588
2019vs Left 1.089 146 19 13 27 2 .315 .404 .685
2019vs Right .715 515 62 19 58 3 .239 .315 .400
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+4%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+7%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+51%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+25%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .809 574 77 32 87 10 .250 .328 .481
Since 2019Away .840 605 81 26 88 8 .278 .355 .485
2021Home .749 138 18 6 22 3 .233 .326 .422
2021Away .801 136 16 4 22 4 .264 .338 .463
2020Home 1.153 119 24 11 25 5 .352 .412 .741
2020Away .766 125 19 5 21 1 .262 .336 .430
2019Home .703 317 35 15 40 2 .219 .297 .406
2019Away .882 344 46 17 45 3 .289 .369 .513
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Stat Review
How does Manny Machado compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.70
 
BB Rate
11.7%
 
K Rate
16.8%
 
BABIP
.263
 
ISO
.194
 
AVG
.249
 
OBP
.332
 
SLG
.443
 
OPS
.775
 
wOBA
.337
 
Exit Velocity
87.0 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
39.3%
 
Barrels/PA
8.7%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Manny Machado
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6 days ago
Mike Barner dials up Monday's 13-game DraftKings slate, rolling with a Giants stack against Matt Peacock and the Diamondbacks.
FanDuel MLB: Monday Targets
6 days ago
Chris Morgan examines Monday’s slate and likes Kris Bryant against Mets lefty David Peterson, who sports a 6.32 ERA.
FanDuel MLB: Sunday Targets
7 days ago
With Joey Lucchesi set to start for the Mets, Chris Morgan is offering up a few Padres hitters.
FanDuel MLB: Tuesday Targets
19 days ago
Chris Bennett digs into Tuesday's slate as Adolis Garcia and the Rangers make a trip to Coors Field.
Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: Trout to Miss Long Stretch
26 days ago
Jeff Stotts recaps this week’s most notable injuries, starting with Mike Trout, who’s short-term fantasy value is precarious.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Machado has 300 million reasons not to regret leaving Baltimore, but he no doubt misses the dimensions there. The fun ball helped Machado get back to the 30-homer mark for a fifth consecutive season, but he hit the fewest doubles in a full season for his career, which ultimately cut into his overall run production. He tied for the lowest runs scored in his full-season career, and drove in 22 fewer runners than he did in 2018. His exit velocity and launch angles held up, but Petco isn't Camden, and that is ultimately what is to blame here. Machado is a compiler and has missed a total of 17 games over the past five seasons. As long as he stays healthy, he will produce, but San Diego sets a ceiling on his run production numbers, and the batting average roller coaster is tough to ignore. There is still a ton of name value here, but the fantasy value has not equaled the name value in two of the last three years.
It’s rare a superstar hits free agency entering his age-26 season, but that’s what happens when you debut at 19. Machado is coming off arguably his best year as he exhibited above-average-to-elite skills across the board. He set new career best levels in contact and walk rate, contributing to new personal highs in average, homers and RBI. Plus, Machado returned to swiping double-digit bases with his best ever success rate. Much has been made of Machado’s “Johnny Hustle” comment and the ensuing backtrack clarification, but missing only 11 games over the past four campaigns, including playing all 162 in 2015 and 2018, speaks volumes. It’s no secret the defensive metrics rank him as one of the best at the hot corner but below average at shortstop. For fantasy, it doesn’t matter, though he’s lost dual eligibility, entering 2019 as shortstop only. Machado has it all: durability, elite skills and youth. Ignore the rest. He’s one of the top players in the game.
Machado got off to a dismal start to 2017, batting .205/.286/.405 over the first two months of the campaign. However, all the underlying numbers said a rebound was imminent, and sure enough, he came on strong down the stretch. While his walk rate fell to just 5.8 percent after the All-Star break, Machado made more consistent contact (13.2 percent strikeout rate) and that helped him hit .290 and slug .500 in the second half. He slashed just .229/.268/.398 away from Camden Yards for the year, but Machado hit on the road the previous two seasons (.289/.345/.523 in 2016 and .282/.351/.465 in 2015), so it seems likely that 2017 will end up being the outlier with that particular split. While the 25-year-old has lost shortstop eligibility, he could regain it in-season. His price will likely be depressed more than it should coming off a down season. Buy in bulk.
Machado set career highs in home runs, RBI, runs, and batting average, cementing his first-round status despite not stealing a single base. Such $30 players have to be good across the board or great in a few things, and luckily for Machado owners, he is excellent in the other categories. Sure, it would be nice if he stole bases again, but the rest of his excellence will do just fine. Picking faults in Machado is like saying your Lamborghini is only getting up to 220 mph on the Autobahn. While he is split-neutral in terms of batting average, 86 of the 105 homers he has hit in his career have come against right-handed pitching. Machado has good bats in front of him and behind him, which puts him in an ideal spot of the lineup to continue to be a top-shelf run producer. The team hits like a softball team, but Machado could be even better if the Orioles add a true table-setter to the leadoff spot.
Machado suffered his second serious leg injury in August of 2014, so his 2015 season was a complete shock to even his most ardent supporters. He swiped 20 bases, scored 102 times and hit 35 home runs while driving in 86 runners, setting career highs across the board in his age-23 season. One can look long and hard at his skills without finding a flaw. He is a patient hitter at the plate, makes contact above the league-average rate and his Isolated Power figure has risen three consecutive seasons. He could move down another spot in the lineup if Chris Davis goes elsewhere in free agency, and though a move down the lineup will likely reduce his stolen base total, it should bump up his RBI count. A 40-homer season isn’t impossible as he’s still filling out physically. In a 15-team mixed league, Machado shouldn’t make it out of the first round.
Machado is exhibit 1,527,106 in the Never Believe The Player Theory. As the theory goes, whatever return date a player tells the media or how said player will avoid the disabled list, throw the story in the trash can because it is useless. There were many stories about how Machado felt like he would be ready to start the season, but he did not make his season debut until May 1. His season started late and ended early, as yet another knee injury ended his season in mid-August. Machado has already had three major injuries and two surgeries in just four professional seasons of baseball. Some of those 51 doubles he hit in 2013 became homers in 2014, but a combination of injuries and a line-drive swing make it unlikely that Machado hits 20 homers in 2015. He remains a better real player than a fantasy one.
It was thought that Machado would take time to mature as a hitter, but instead he hit .310 in the first half and was on pace to break the MLB record for doubles. He's still not a finished product as shown with his 4.1% walk rate, a clear sign that Machado needs to develop more patience at the plate. Machado suffered an ugly knee injury in the final week of the season and needed surgery to repair a torn medial patellar ligament. Although he had the procedure in mid-October and there was no reported damage to his ACL or MCL, Machado is facing a six-month rehab window. As a result, he is in danger of missing Opening Day. Once Machado is ready to take the field again, he will be one of the more attractive options at third base, and over the next few years some of those doubles should begin to turn into home runs as he reaches his power peak.
With a lack of production at third base, the Orioles shocked many by calling up Machado, who had just turned 20 years old, having him bypass Triple-A altogether. While he was a bit overaggressive at the plate (9:39 BB:K), Machado held his own considering his age. Machado is still developing both his eye at the plate and his power, but he is expected to blossom into a star. With J.J. Hardy's contract extended through 2014, Machado should remain at third base for the time being. Machado may take some time to develop, so his value is far greater in keeper formats.
Machado effectively played his first professional season after playing just nine games in 2010 as the Orioles' first-round draft pick. The 19-year-old tore up Low-A, hitting .276/.376/.483 with six home runs in just 170 plate appearances, showing good plate discipline as well before a dislocated knee cap sent him to the disabled list. He then hit a bit of a road block in High-A, where he couldn't draw as many walks nor hit for as much power (five homers in 260 plate appearances). Look for the youngster to get another crack at High-A and hopefully move up to Double-A next season.
Machado, the third overall selection in the 2010 draft, went 11-for-36 with one home run and just three strikeouts in a brief professional debut. He projects as a very good hitter at the MLB level and he should develop power as he continues to grow. Keeper and dynasty league owners should be prepared to invest here, however, as he's drawn legitimate comparisons to Alex Rodriguez. Even if Machado fails to become next A-Rod (fail is a strong word), he should hit for average and double-digit (think 20-homer) power down the road. Just don't expect to see him at the big league level before 2013.
More Fantasy News
Clubs homer in win
3BSan Diego Padres
June 17, 2021
Machado went 1-for-3 with a solo home run, a walk and two total runs scored in Thursday's 6-4 win over Cincinnati.
ANALYSIS
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Smacks solo shot
3BSan Diego Padres
June 13, 2021
Machado went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in Sunday's 7-3 win over the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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Plates San Diego's lone run
3BSan Diego Padres
June 9, 2021
Machado went 1-for-4 with an RBI in Wednesday's loss to the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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Slugs second homer in three games
3BSan Diego Padres
June 8, 2021
Machado went 2-for-3 with a home run and three RBI in Monday's 9-4 win over the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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Gets rare maintenance day
3BSan Diego Padres
June 6, 2021
Machado is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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