This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 2-1, 2.27 RW Bucks
Season: 25-25-3, -0.79 RW Bucks
We're primed for another big MLB Saturday, and I'm focused on a pair of afternoon battles that feature four pitchers who come off rough starts in their last turn, at minimum. As we know, that doesn't necessarily mean anything in the unpredictable world of baseball, and we'll look to see if that's information we can use to our benefit from a betting perspective.
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, 2:10 pm Eastern
Starting Pitchers: Pablo Lopez vs. Jake Arrieta
The Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-106 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Lopez has largely been strong for the Marlins all season, pitching to a 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP despite a 2-4 mark. He has had much more trouble on the road than at home, but his matchup Saturday isn't necessarily prohibitive. The Cubs have struck out at a 25.7 percent clip against right-handers at Wrigley in the last month while also posting a pedestrian .231 average and .307 OBP in that split. Lopez's elevated road metrics are largely the result of a pair of meltdowns against the Braves and D-Backs from earlier in the season, but he's otherwise held his other four road opponents to two runs or less.
Arrieta got banged around a bit by the Mets on the road in his last start (5 IP, 4 ER), but he's been relatively solid at home this season with a 3.16 ERA across 25.2 home innings. Arrieta's home HR/9 of 1.1 is exactly half of what it is on the road as well, and Saturday, he faces a Marlins team that sports a 26.3 percent strikeout rate, .215 average, -9.2 wRAA and .282 wOBA against righties on the road in the last month.
Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, 4:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez vs. Brad Keller
The Pick: Royals moneyline (+115 at William Hill Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Over 10.5 runs (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Perez has exhibited his career-long tendencies of being an on-again, off-again middle-of-the-rotation piece this season, as he walks into Saturday's matchup with a 4-4 record, 4.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. The veteran southpaw has been very good on the road (2.15 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), but the matchup against KC Is a hostile one. Current Royals bats have tagged Perez for a collective .376/.408/.671 slash line and 12 XBH across 104 career encounters and the KC also checks in with a .307 average, .847 OPS and .357 wOBA and 127 wRC+ against lefties at home over the last month.
Keller has come unraveled several times already this season, as he's allowed at least five earned runs in four of 14 starts on his way to a 6.14 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. He's been pummeled at home for a 7.80 ERA despite a serviceable 1.2 HR/9, but he has encouragingly allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three turns at Kauffman Stadium. The Red Sox have been tough against righties on the road in the last month (.261 average, 338 wOBA), but current BoSox bats have just a .172 average and .497 OPS against Keller in a modest sample of 24 career encounters.
Considering both bullpens have been worked fairly hard and have been poor in the last week – Boston relievers have a 5.53 ERA, .296 BAA and .395 wOBA in that span while KC's firemen sport figures of 5.96, .291 and .367 in those respective categories – a flyer on the Over isn't a bad idea in addition to one on the Royals as straight-up winners at plus money.
