Mound Musings: Checking in on AL Bullpens

Last week, we discussed characteristics to look for when trying to determine the next closer candidate for an MLB team. It seems natural to look at specific bullpens where those characteristics might soon be relevant – and there are plenty of them. Starters are throwing more pitches, in fewer innings, and relief pitchers get into more games and often enter in the middle innings. For fantasy purposes, managing your relief pitching is both challenging and rewarding if you can find the best contributors before the other owners in your league, so I am trying to dedicate space in the Musings to bullpens.

Playing musical chairs out in the pen

Already this season, perhaps more than ever (and I seem to say that every year lately), we have seen closer scenarios changing or at least potentially changing. Relief pitching has become an ever-increasing part of success – or failure – in major league baseball. Very few teams have five reliable starters. In fact, there are teams that would be hard-pressed to pencil in more than a couple of regular starting pitchers who can be expected to generate positive innings on a consistent basis. True quality relievers are becoming more important, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to find them. Let's take a look at some closer assignments in the AL to see where they may be headed: 

Here are some AL closer scenarios to keep an eye on:

• Minnesota Twins – The Twins opened the 2021 season projected to be major contenders for a postseason spot. Instead, they are currently 14-27 and in last place in the AL Central, with the bullpen being a glaring deficiency. Part of the optimism was based on a solid bullpen – at least on paper. They have three relievers with fairly extensive closing experience. They signed Alex Colome who saved 42 games over the past two years. Lefty Taylor Rogers was their best option last season (39 saves in 2019-20), and they added Hansel Robles who collected 23 saves in 2019. Unfortunately, the paper was wrinkled. Colome has been ineffective and was removed from the closer's role. Rogers was pitching well but has had problems since taking over the ninth inning, and Robles has been given an occasional opportunity. In truth, all three are probably better-suited to set-up roles, but I expect the team to turn things around with Rogers solidifying his spot at the back of the pen. Robles and/or Colome may see a chance when the matchups are favorable, but Rogers is their best option.
• Detroit Tigers – Don't look now, but the Tigers may have found a viable closer. It's been quite a while, and there have been plenty of bumps in the road, but the team appears to have come to grips with the fact that Michael Fulmer belongs in the bullpen where his limited repertoire isn't overexposed. After Joe Jimenez proved (again) he wasn't the answer, and live-armed lefty Gregory Soto proved he had only a vague idea of where the strike zone might be, they have recently turned to former hype guy, Fulmer, and the initial results have been encouraging. Injuries have hampered him over recent years, but his velocity is back, and he has the stuff to be a decent closer. Soto has a good arm and should be a quality set-up guy if he throws strikes. The Tigers have some promising young starting pitchers, so hopefully Fulmer has found a home.
• Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are the team that best defines musical chairs in the bullpen. This spring, after Kirby Yates was declared out for the season following Tommy John surgery, most assumed Jordan Romano would step into the closer's role. He had the resume of an up-and-coming closer including some limited ninth-inning experience, a live arm (97 mph fastball) and the ability to miss bats. It didn't happen – at least not right away. First, they gave the gig to Julian Merryweather. He did a respectable job before landing on the IL. Romano's turn? Nope, not yet. Rafael Dolis, who enjoyed success closing in Japan before returning to the States, took over. Then he got hurt. Is it Romano time? It's difficult to say. The Jays have five key relievers on the injured list, but Dolis (calf injury) is back now, so Romano could find himself in a set-up role yet again, but I really do think he will eventually grab the gig for good and run with it. Someday, hopefully soon. For now, he's an excellent add in holds leagues. He will get high-leverage innings, and should see either holds or saves.
• Kansas City Royals– One of the most challenging bullpen scenarios a team can face is what to do with a veteran former top tier closer who seemingly no longer has a closer's toolbox. The Royals have two of them. Both Greg Holland (166 saves between 2013 and 2017) and Wade Davis (43 saves in 2018) have enjoyed success in the ninth inning, but, in the category of "what have you done for me lately," they come up short. Erratic command haunts them, making every outing a potential meltdown. I think Holland is the better bet of the two, but they really need more consistency. So if they are not going to close, what are their roles, and who takes the ball in the ninth? It makes me jittery. Think about how often closer's blow up in nonsave situations. As for the closing duties, they have a very capable set-up guy in Scott Barlow, but that's where he should stay. Save chances need to continue going to Josh Staumont. He has the arm to be a good closer, but he needs to lock in his release point and throw more strikes. His command is improving, so there is reason for optimism.
• Los Angeles Angels – Sometimes it seems like the more things change, the more they stay the same. For a long time, the Angels have looked like a potentially good team. After all, they have Mike Trout, certainly one of the most talented players in the game, they added Anthony Rendon, another true blue-chipper. Jared Walsh has made a huge splash, and they have finally taken the leash off of starting pitcher/designated hitter, Shohei Ohtani. That's an incredible nucleus. Yet, despite their star-studded roster, they aren't winning. Much of it comes around to inconsistent pitching. The starters have been inconsistent for sure, but the bullpen has actually been quite consistent – consistently bad. I really don't see an imminent change in roles. I've never been totally sold on newcomer Raisel Iglesias as a closer, but he's the best they have. The best stuff in the pen belongs to Chris Rodriguez, but he's currently hurt, and his future is in the rotation anyway. Veteran Tony Watson, along with Mike Mayers, appear to be adequate set-up guys, yet the Angels find ways to lose late. It's difficult to figure them out. I'd like to see at least one more starting pitcher who can get deeper into games, and a better closer would positively shuffle the bullpen roles, but that is not likely to happen. They need to find ways to win.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Making his first start in two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July of 2019, Arizona's Corbin Martin actually looked better than the numbers would suggest. The rust was not a surprise, but he displayed a nice, clean motion that should allow him to hone his command as he logs more innings.
• Cleveland's Zach Plesac is making a positive impression. He doesn't always get much run support (the Indians have been no hit twice this year, and he was on the mound for both), but he gives them innings, going at least seven frames in four of his last five starts. In today's game, that is a boost to his value to be sure.
• Like Tampa Bay in the American League, San Francisco appears to be a good landing spot for pitchers hoping to give their careers a bump. Take Anthony DeSclafani who is just one of several who have recently found new life on their pitches, and, perhaps more importantly, better command of the strike zone.
• In an all-or-nothing season when hitters swing hard in case they hit it, sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. Detroit's Spencer Turnbull was the latest of quite a few to spin a no-hitter this year. He's a decent mid- to back-of-the-rotation starter, but he's not really going to be a dominant guy on most nights.
• A last-minute addition to this week's Musings, Corey Kluber just completed yet another no hitter. We're only a quarter of the way through the season, and that is six (not including Madison Bumgarner's seven-inning no-no). The record for no hitters in a season is seven. This begs for an in-depth discussion at some point.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Giants appear to be mixing and matching in the ninth inning on occasion. Southpaw Jake McGee remains their primary closer, but they will sometimes deploy submariner Tyler Rogers when the situation lends itself to his funky delivery. I'll be interested to see how things go in Cincinnati over the coming days/weeks. No one has really stepped up to claim their closer's job, and Amir Garrett is back from his suspension. I think he could be primed to go on a successful run. Yimi Garcia is solidifying his old on the closer's job since taking over from Anthony Bass in Miami. He's not the ideal closer, but he's a better option than Bass, and his main competition, Dylan Floro, got battered in an outing earlier this week. Edwin Diaz has certainly had his ups and downs since joining the Mets, but I watched him pitch an inning the other day, and he sure looked like the 2018 version who saved 57 games for Seattle. With Jordan Hicks back on the shelf, it looks like Alex Reyes is the Cardinals closer for the foreseeable future, but he still makes me very nervous. He's 12-for-12 in save chances with a microscopic ERA, but 20 walks in 22 innings is a train wreck looking for a place to happen.