Mound Musings: Some Arms to Consider

Not too surprisingly, this year, it seems like there have been even more (than usual) young, at least somewhat lesser known, pitchers finding work in starting rotations. Some have enjoyed some success, and that always leads to decisions on whether they should be added to your fantasy roster. Even good teams with the very best pitching prospects are at least considering promotions, but some veterans and their second-tier minor leaguers are likely to get their chances to show off. Even with good beginnings, most won't post long-term value, as the hitters build a book on them and uncover their flaws. However, some will take advantage of the opportunity, and so should you.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have impressed me with both solid numbers and future potential at this point in the season. Then, we'll flip the coin, and I'll feature pitchers who have posted impressive numbers so far but might not see a major league mound too many more times. Watch the warning signs on these guys. 

You might consider adding these arms:

Joe Musgrove (Padres) – Just last week, Musgrove opened a lot of eyes by pitching the first no-hitter in San Diego Padres history. That alone probably made him a challenging trade target, but that's okay, I want to look a bit behind the scenes. Consider that top pitching prospect Gerrit Cole toiled for the Pirates until 2017, and another blue chip young arm, Tyler Glasnow, was employed in Pittsburgh until 2018. Both saw their careers take off once they "changed latitudes," resulting in more movement and better command of a wider arsenal and locking in a release point with cleaner mechanics. Musgrove is already displaying some of the same for his new team. He doesn't have quite the ceiling of Cole or Glasnow, but he could be a very productive starter. And, just a heads-up, there is another former Pirate who could turn out to be buried treasure if he can stay healthy. Jameson Taillon is incredibly tempting.

Luke Weaver (Diamondbacks) – Do you enjoy riding rollercoasters at amusement parks? And, the bigger the better? Weaver might be your guy. It seems like he's been around for a long time but he's just 27-years-old, and he's been teasing us from day one. I think he is close to finding the formula for consistent success. Recently, Weaver has been sticking almost exclusively to fastballs and changeups – the pitches he can command – and it's been working. He's eventually going to need to mix in a few breaking balls to avoid hitters zeroing in on his two best pitches, but I think if he uses them judiciously, he'll be able to keep hitters off balance. I have liked him since he first came up with the Cardinals, even with his periodic meltdowns, and his day is coming. I sincerely hope he's not teasing us again … still ….

Jordan Montgomery (Yankees) – I've liked just about everything about Montgomery since the first time I saw him pitch. Unfortunately, he missed most of 2018 and 2019, so we've had to be patient. He has a full repertoire of above average offerings he will throw in any count or situation. His command is generally very good as he works in and out while staying down in the zone most of the time. That leads to a lot of weak contact. He's not overpowering and he's not going to be a huge strikeout pitcher, but I think he can average about one an inning. His 2020 numbers were tainted with a bit of bad luck, so expectations are modest in many leagues. Finally, perhaps his biggest attribute is a higher level of mound presence. That's a winner's pedigree.

Jesus Luzardo (A's) – I wanted to include someone here who has disappointed enough to drive his price down, and Luzardo gets the nod. He has missed time following Tommy John surgery and a rotator cuff injury that cost him almost all of 2019, so his erratic performance in 2020 isn't too surprising. Now his first few outings this season have shown mixed results, so maybe his current owner is disenchanted? When he's healthy and everything is clicking, he has the electric stuff that can pile up strikeouts – upper 90s fastball with movement, and a plus curve and change. There is injury risk, although these days that might be said of almost every pitcher, but I see flashes of the ability that had him near the top of my kid watch list, and the time might be right to pursue him.

Brent Honeywell (Rays) – Here is my "lightning in a bottle" selection. I'll start with an excerpt from a Kid's on Parade column – "Honeywell was one of the top strikeout pitchers in the minor leagues this season (172 in 137 innings), and he piled up some pretty impressive numbers over the year at Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham. That said, the Rays opted not to promote him to the big club in September." That was four years (2017) and four elbow surgeries ago. I watched his major league debut last week, and he looked pretty sharp, albeit for just two innings. He claims he is finally completely healthy, which will need to last, and he will need to be stretched out before he can realistically offer fantasy value, but if you have a deep roster where he can be stashed to see how it plays out, he could be quite a surprise.

I'm staying away from these pitchers:

Freddy Peralta (Brewers) – I have long said Peralta fits nicely in a long relief role, but is risky if overexposed by starting and thereby needing to face opposing hitters multiple times in a game. I'm still there. He has gotten off to a great start in 2021, however in watching his most recent start, I still felt like he needed better secondary stuff to keep hitters honest long term. The trouble is, after Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, the Brewers have few quality options for their rotation. I'd be more comfortable if Peralta were deployed as a short (five inning) starter or even as an opener where he could face opposing hitters a maximum of twice before turning things over to the pen, but I don't think that is likely to happen, and, if it does, that could hurt his fantasy value as well.

Tyler Mahle (Reds) – He's posting very good numbers so far in April (1.93 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP with 22 strikeouts in just 14 innings), so it's not too surprising that Mahle is drawing some attention. However, this is potentially a case of buyer beware. He features good but not great stuff, and with sometimes iffy command. Consider that he has pitched just 14 innings in three starts, not lasting beyond five innings generally because of elevated pitch counts. He has walked seven and allowed a couple of home runs with an unsustainable BABIP, all warning signs that some regression is likely. Don't get me wrong, I'm not totally down on Mahle, but I think he will be more of a league average pitcher who could be more hittable if/when he is able to pitch deeper into games.

Mitch Keller (Pirates) – The Pirates have one legitimate top tier pitching prospect in the majors right now, which is usually enough to keep that pitcher in my sights. There's no exception here. I will continue to monitor Keller based on what I saw when he was pitching at Triple-A Indianapolis, where he dominated opposing hitters, filling the strike zone with quality offerings. However, his inability to consistently throw strikes at the major league level keeps him on the watch rather than pursue list. I don't see him changing uniforms in the immediate future, so he remains an intriguing, but unrosterable, talent. His recent start against the Cubs was encouraging, but he isn't there yet.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Occasionally you get the feeling that a team will have a lot of things fall into place for a particular season, and a few players will be key components. I feel that way about the Angels in 2021, and I think Griffin Canning could be a significant contributor. He's not an ace but he might help a lot of fantasy teams.
• I don't think things will continue to be as bad as they have been early on for Arizona's Madison Bumgarner, but I'm not really seeing a return to his former level. The velocity is a little better and there has been some bad luck, but he still isn't locating well and hitters appear to be picking him up too easily.
• The velocity returned as soon as White Sox southpaw, Carlos Rodon returned to the mound. As expected, the command was initially pretty inconsistent. His command continues to improve, and Rodon is showing the skillset the team hopes will lead to happier days. Note: Written before his start vs. Cleveland.
• If you are in the market for starting pitching depth (who isn't), Kwang Hyun Kim is scheduled to make his season debut for the Cardinals this weekend. He went through some back issues this spring, but built up to 86 pitches in his last simulated game so he should be ready to handle a full workload.

Endgame Odyssey:

What a difference a day makes. Last week, the Dodgers Kenley Jansen entered a game in a save situation. His velocity was down a bit, his cutter wasn't sharp, and he struggled to throw strikes. Uh oh. Two days later, everything changed. His cutter was crisp, he sat in the 94 to 95 mph range, and he spotted each pitch almost perfectly. Hopefully the adjustments stick. With Trevor Rosenthal out of the picture, there has been speculation regarding who will get the ball in the ninth inning for Oakland. It appears Jake Diekman and Sergio Romo will share set-up duties for Lou Trivino. He has adequate stuff, and while he is best-suited for set-up work too, he should be capable of filling the role. I'm hoping Boston's Matt Barnes is getting comfortable with the closer's gig. It has never been a question about his raw skills. He has those, but sometimes it takes a pitcher time to get used to the pressure of closing. He has looked good his year. The Marlins have already decided Anthony Bass isn't the right fish to pitch the ninth inning, removing him from the closer's role. The names being mentioned as a replacement include Yimi Garcia, and the guy I think will claim the job, Dylan Floro.