Bernie on the Scene: AL Rookies of Consequence

A note before looking at American League rookies with potential fantasy impact for 2021.

Again this year, Bernie on the Scene fantasy teams are open to RotoWire subscribers.

We will have two 10-team roto leagues.  There is an entry fee for each league.

League One is sold out. All 10 spaces are filled. 

Entry for League Two is now open. If you wish to learn more about League Two, simply email your interest to me at BPleskoff@aol.com. I will send you details. Our League Commissioner for both leagues is Derek Simon. Derek does a fantastic job, and I think you will really enjoy playing in our leagues.

American League Rookies

Rookies come in all sizes and shapes and with all skill sets. This week, I profile American League rookies I believe will be relevant this season.

The players below are those with rookie status remaining.

Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays
Bats Right
Signed as international free agent from Cuba
5-11, 185
Age 24

Most fans were introduced to Arozarena during the 2020 playoffs when he hit 10 home runs. He has won the left field job in Tampa Bay and likely will hit in the middle of the Rays batting order. 

Put mildly, Arozarena has lightning quick hands and can barrel the ball to all parts of the field. The ball jumps off his bat with that special sound we love to hear.

Conclusions: Arozarena should be targeted as a potential fantasy regular offering power on a solid team. But beware, I don't think we will see the same type of home run output we saw in the playoffs. Pitchers will adjust to Arozarena, and he may struggle some. 

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/3B, Orioles
Bats Right
2015 first-round draft pick out of high school
6-3, 210
Age 23

It is now Mountcastle's time to enter the Orioles lineup. He could hit sixth and play first base for Baltimore. I don't see him being part of a platoon.

Mountcastle will move to first base because he isn't a quality defender. He is an offense-only player, using quick wrists and strong hands to generate power. He is among the young players who have tweaked and altered their swing to generate more power. I think it works for him.

Conclusions: First base isn't really deep with All-Star potential hitters who can win your fantasy league. If you wait, Mountcastle should be there if you want to take a flyer. But remember, he's a rookie and subject to exposure of his weaknesses by savvy pitchers.

Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays
2017 first-round draft pick out of Central Florida 
6-6, 250 
Age 24

Pearson made only four starts last year, leaving with a flexor strain in his right elbow. He returned late in the season and pitched out of the pen.

Pearson's elbow gives me concern. It should concern you as well. Elbow issues are a yellow light for me — proceed with caution.

When healthy, Pearson can hit 100 mph. He pitches in the high 90s with good command and control. He also throws a slider, a curve and a changeup. But his fastball will carry his starts. His slider is a very crafty pitch that is tough to barrel.

If healthy, Pearson will be a mid-rotation starter for an improving Blue Jays team. 

Conclusions: Everything depends upon his elbow strength. I think he'll have a quality season on a good team. But, beware of that elbow.

Bobby Dalbec, 1B/3B, Red Sox
Bats Right
2015 fourth-round draft pick out of Arizona
6-4, 227
Age 25

To my way of thinking, Dalbec could be among few bright spots in the Red Sox lineup. He likely will play first base every day.

In 2020, Dalbec hit eight home runs and drove in 18 runs in 92 plate appearances in 23 games. That was an outstanding display of power.

I like Dalbec hitting at Fenway. My greatest concern is his ability to hit breaking balls. I do know that he can cream fastballs.  He knows how to work a count and wait for his pitch. But going forward, he can't sit on fastballs.

Conclusions: There will be some swing-and-miss in his game, but Dalbec is impressive. He will play a prominent role for Boston, and I think he'll succeed.

Alex Kirilloff, OF, Twins
Bats Left
2016 first-round draft pick out of high school
6-2, 195 
Age 23

The Twins let outfielder Eddie Rosario go because they knew that Alex Kirilloff and Brent Rooker were on the Twins' major league doorstep. Rosario was expendable.

Kirilloff had a serious wrist injury in 2019 that led to a tough season by his standards. But that seems to be totally behind him now. But he does have to show that his normal swing has returned after making some compensations for his wrist.

Kirilloff has power, a good hitting tool, above average speed and, when healthy, major league quality hitting mechanics.

Conclusions: Kirilloff will be entering a dynamic lineup as part of a likely platoon. He will get the long side of the platoon, and may give way to fellow rookie Brent Rooker upon occasion.

He won't be a middle of the order hitter, but I think he'll be getting enough at-bats to be credible.

Brent Rooker, OF, Twins
Bats Right
2016 first-round draft pick out of Mississippi State
6-3, 225
Age 26

One might think Rooker would be ahead of Kirilloff in the Twins lineup due to his age. However, because he hits right-handed, it is likely Kirilloff will get more at-bats in the outfield platoon.

But Rooker has qualities of his own. He played in seven 2020 games and got 21 plate appearances. He hit .316/381/.579/.960. Nice numbers. He had one homer.

Rooker has power and a solid hit tool. He doesn't have much speed. He has a history of leg injuries that cost him time in development. 

I worry a bit about the drag in his bat and slowish hands through the ball. But his big frame allows for some very real power.

Conclusions: Rooker is a solid prospect with a powerful bat. He doesn't have smooth hitting mechanics, but when the barrel hits the ball, he can be a top-flight offensive threat. But, as of now, he's a short side of the platoon player. And that could change. I think Minnesota will go with the hotter bat between Kirilloff and Rooker.

Triston McKenzie, RHP, Indians
2015 first-round draft pick out of high school
6-5, 165
Age 23

McKenzie has a paper-thin frame that has to concern the Indians. Does he have the stamina to last more than five or six innings per start? I'm not sure. He gives every bit of his energy on every pitch, wearing him down. But the man can bring his fastball to the mid-90s.

I like McKenzie's command of all his pitches. He throws the fastball, a wicked curveball and a changeup. Each is of major league quality.

Conclusions: McKenzie will probably slot fourth in the Indians rotation. But he likely won't offer as many quality starts as some other starters due to his rail-thin frame and the energy he uses to dispatch hitters. But make no mistake — he can pitch.

Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins
Bats Right
2018 second-round draft pick out of North Carolina
6-4, 235 
Age 23

Don't look now, but Jeffers could get plenty of at-bats for the Twins. He may be sharing time with Mitch Garver, but he'll get some solid at-bats. He could be a sleeper.

Jeffers had 62 plate appearances in 2020 in 26 Twins games. He hit .273/.355/.436/.791. Those aren't bad numbers from the short season.

Jeffers is a hitter-first catcher, and that's why I think he gets playing time. He has a solid hitting background in his development. 

I will caution that he doesn't really hit high velocity pitches as well as mediocre fastballs. But I would say he can be a credible option, more likely a second catcher in deep leagues. His swing is rather slow, but not a hindrance.

Conclusions: I like Jeffers as a sleeper. I think he can be credible at a weak position in fantasy. It likely will be from the back end of the Twins lineup, but he could help fantasy managers.

Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Indians
Signed as international free agent from Dominican Republic by Rangers
6-2, 206 
Age 23

Clase was acquired by Cleveland in the Corey Kluber trade with the Rangers. After he arrived in Cleveland he was suspended for a violation of the substance abuse policy. He also had a severe back problem that cost him time. Allegedly, Clase's back injury is not a concern, as he has been working out without issues.

Clase may share some closing opportunities with James Karinchak (not a rookie) on the 2020 Indians. He certainly has the stuff to close.

Clase has been known to throw his fastball at 101 mph. He also throws a slider at 20 mph less in velocity. Basically, though, Clase is a fastball/slider reliever. There is no chance he will be a starter for Cleveland.

Conclusions: Clase will serve in either a set-up or closer role for Cleveland. He'll get plenty of opportunities late in games. I think he is a viable relief pitcher for fantasy managers. But he is untested. And that backache could return. Beware.

Braden Bishop, OF, Mariners
Bats Right
2015 third-round draft pick out of Washington 
6-1, 178 
Age 27

To be clear, Bishop is not a power-hitting outfielder. Bishop has long been a favorite of scouts like me. He plays the game properly. He gives 100 percent.

His best offensive tool is his speed. If he can get on base, he can steal. But basically, Bishop is known as a very solid defensive outfielder.

In fact, Bishop uses a rather flat, line-drive swing that doesn't get much loft. He works the gaps to his advantage and may swat some doubles.

Conclusions: Braden Bishop may get some chances late in games as a defensive replacement. I'm not sure he has any fantasy value, but he'll show up in platform outfield lists. I'd pass, but I sure like him as a player off the bench.

Seth Brown, OF/1B, Athletics
Bats Left
2015 19th-round draft pick out of Lewis-Clark State
6-1, 223 
Age 28

Watch out for Seth Brown. Unless the Athletics make another move or two, look for Seth Brown to make the Athletics roster and get playing time as a designated hitter against right-handed pitching.

What does he bring? In 2019, he hit .293 with no homers and 13 RBIs for Oakland. In 2020, he got in seven games and hit .000. No hits in five at-bats.

Oakland is not offensively deep. They may even have rookie Rule 5 outfielder Ka'ai Tom on their bench. The opportunities could be there for Brown as the DH.

As he concentrates his swing on hitting right-handed pitchers, he is limiting his opportunities to a narrow part of the strike zone — an area he can dominate.

Conclusions: Brown can be a sleeper as a DH, but probably not a guy I will roster. He will, however, likely get some at-bats unless the Athletics add depth.

Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers
2018 ninth-round draft pick out of Seattle University
6-3, 215
Age 24

I would think left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal gets a role in the Tigers rotation. I don't think Casey Mize makes the rotation out of spring camp. But Mize could join him at some point.

Skubal made seven starts for the Tigers in 2020. He was 1-4 with a 5.63 ERA, 5.75 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9.

Skubal likely will be in the back end of the Tigers rotation. He throws his fastball 92-97 mph, and its a very solid pitch. He also has a quality curveball, slider and changeup. His repertoire is major league average, with his fastball as his best pitch.

Conclusions: Skubal pitches for a very mediocre team and may not have a win total that will help a fantasy team. But he should get his starts and he is serviceable as a late flyer in a fantasy draft. I might just take a pass on him this year.

Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox
Bats Right
2018 first-round draft pick out of Oregon State
5-8, 175
Age 23

Madrigal should win the starting second base position for the White Sox. He brings a quality bat in a smallish frame. He won't be slugging home runs for your fantasy team, but he may hit for a very solid batting average.

Madrigal has some speed, but I'm not betting on the White Sox running too much. They have a new manager in Tony La Russa and a potent offense, and Mr. La Russa might not want to waste outs on stolen-base attempts. So be careful thinking Madrigal will pad your stolen-base numbers. We have no basis yet to determine that value.

In the 2020 season, Madrigal hit .340/.376/.369/.745 in 29 games and 109 plate appearances.

Conclusions: Nick Madrigal likely owns the second-base job at this point. If he hits, he keeps the job. If he saves runs with good defense, he keeps the job. But as a rookie, he will have to produce. There is some risk that he may lose playing time to Danny Mendick or someone else.

Next week: National League rookies of consequence

Heading Home

Spring training begins this week. Baseball is back. We need to rejoice.

In the coming weeks, I will review each MLB division. I will highlight fantasy relevant players who can possibly help our fantasy teams.

Note: As I said, please contact me if you wish a spot in out 2021 Fantasy Baseball Bernie on the Scene League Two. Just let me know of your interest at BPleskoff@aol.com and I will send you details.

Be safe out there. Have a great week.