MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

As strange as it may seem, there are just three weeks left in the regular season. For those playing in roto leagues, that's not a whole lot of time left to make your move, though the standings should at least still be far more fluid than they typically are with just three weeks left in the campaign. For those in head-to-head leagues, time is getting even more tight, as most leagues likely have just one one regular-season week left prior to the playoffs.

To get a sense for just how much can change in three weeks, I took a look at the leaderboard over the final three weeks of last season to see what interesting names popped up. Here are a few of the most noteworthy ones:

-Brad Miller was tied for second in the league with seven homers

-Nico Hoerner was tied for seventh with 17 RBI

-Garrett Hampson was tied for fifth with 16 runs

-Kyle Schwarber sat eighth among qualified hitters with a .362 batting average

-Chi Chi Gonzalez was tied for third among qualified starters with a 1.29 ERA

-Eduardo Rodriguez was tied for the league lead with 45 strikeouts

-Trent Thornton was tied for sixth with a 0.75 WHIP

This year's Brad Miller or Chi Chi Gonzalez may not be found in this column. They're likely hidden in the least attractive corners of the waiver wire. Miller had hit just six homers all season before hitting seven over the final three weeks, while Gonzalez owned a 7.29 ERA on the year before allowing just three total runs in his last four starts. It was probably wrong to pick up either of them at this time last year, but if you happened to grab them, you were certainly rewarded. When that kind of late-season help can come from that kind of player, it certainly seems wrong to pack it in at this point if you're remotely within striking distance of winning the league.

RISERS

Yu Darvish, SP, Cubs: Darvish reached another gear in the final three months of last season, posting a 36.5 percent strikeout rate to go along with a 2.1 percent walk rate, helping him to a 2.95 ERA despite allowing 1.5 HR/9. He turned 34 in mid-August, but he hasn't lost a step this season. Through eight starts, he's quite close to his second-half strikeout and walk numbers, striking out 33.0 percent of opposing batters while walking just 4.2 percent. That's helped him to a 1.44 ERA, second only to Shane Bieber. His homer problem also seems to have dissipated, as he's allowing just 0.5 HR/9.

Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Phillies: Hoskins broke onto the scene with a .259/.396/.618 slash line in his 50-game debut back in 2017, but he failed to live up to that lofty standard in his next two campaigns, hitting a combined .236/.359/.475, decent enough numbers but hardly noteworthy for a first baseman. He started out this season rather unremarkably as well, posting a .200/.422/.317 line with just a single homer in his first 19 games, but he's really turned things around over his last 15, hitting .311/.400/.738. His typically strong plate discipline has been as good as ever all season, as he's walking 17.6 percent of the time to go along with a perfectly acceptable 22.9 percent strikeout rate. He's making far better contact, however, as he's increased his barrel rate from 9.7 percent last season to 15.1 percent this year.

Sixto Sanchez, SP, Marlins: Sanchez has been everything that the Marlins could have asked for through his first three major-league starts. While a 94.6 percent strand rate undoubtedly helps contribute to his 2.37 ERA, his underlying numbers back up the idea that he's gotten off to a great start. His 26.8 percent strikeout rate is quite strong, while his 1.4 percent walk rate and 62.7 percent groundball rate are both excellent. It's quite an impressive showing from a pitcher who skipped Triple-A, though it shouldn't be a big surprise, as Sanchez has long been considered to have frontline starter upside and was good enough to headline the J.T. Realmuto trade with the Phillies. It's worth noting that Sanchez's career strikeout rate in the minors was just 22.1 percent, but his 97.8 mph fastball suggests he should be able to strike out plenty of batters once he learns to get the most out of his stuff.

Seth Lugo, SP, Mets: Lugo had his fans during draft season, as he was clearly a talented pitcher who just needed to move into the right role to have fantasy relevance. He struck out 33.1 percent of opposing batters last season while walking just 5.1 percent, and his 80 total innings gave him a small boost despite the fact that he didn't start a single game. Reclaiming the closer role seemed like the most obvious way for him to become a strong fantasy contributor this season, but he's instead wound up back in the Mets' starting rotation. He's built up gradually in that role but reached five innings and 81 pitches in his last start and should be treated as an ordinary starter going forward. He hasn't lost a step with the role change, as he owns a 1.54 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 20:4 K:BB in 11.2 innings across his three starts.

Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays: Glasnow featured as a Faller here recently due to his full-season numbers, but he's looked like an entirely different pitcher of late. In his first four starts, he failed to complete five innings and struggled to a 7.04 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. In his last four, however, he's lasted longer than five frames each time while posting a 2.63 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. His strikeout rate sat at an elite 37.0 percent during his early struggles, but it's been an even more ludicrous 41.5 percent over his last four dominant outings, and he's now struck out eight or more batters in five straight starts. His 39.5 percent strikeout rate overall ranks second to Shane Bieber among all pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings.

Brad Miller, 3B, Cardinals: The man mentioned in the introduction has carried his late-season success through the extended offseason and into the 2020 campaign. Through 24 games, he's hit a surprisingly dominant .307/.436/.600. He's doing just about everything right at the moment while serving on the strong side of a platoon at designated hitter for the Cardinals, posting a career-high 18.1 percent walk rate to go along with his 22.3 percent strikeout rate, his lowest mark since 2015. He does have a 30-homer season on his resume back in 2016, so this kind of power hasn't come completely out of nowhere for the veteran. Statcast loves what he's doing, giving him a .323 xBA and a .625 xSLG on the back of a career-best 16.4 percent barrel rate, nearly double his career average of 8.3 percent.

FALLERS

Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees: Sanchez has run low batting averages in the past, but it's never been this bad. Over the prior two seasons, he hit just .211, though his overall .211/.305/.471 slash line was good for a 105 wRC+, more than enough to clear the low bar for utility at the catcher position. His .130/.237/.350 slash line this season most certainly does not. His previously low batting averages weren't tied to an astronomical strikeout rate, which sat at a perfectly acceptable 26.7 percent in 2018 and 2019. This year, however, he's whiffing 42.1 percent of the time. His .133 BABIP is of course part of the problem, though he's run low BABIPs for a long time thanks to his lack of speed and flyball-heavy batted-ball profile. Statcast thinks he isn't underachieving by much, giving him a .161 xBA. Sanchez's struggles have been so significant this season that the Yankees are reportedly considering leaving him on the bench for a handful of games this week.

Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals: Carlson was one of the most hyped rookies during draft season thanks to his excellent all-around numbers in the upper minors last season, as he hit 26 homers and stole 20 bases while posting a .292/.372/.542 slash line, a dominant performance even before you consider that he spent most of the season in center field. Not every talented prospect is destined for immediate success, however, as Carlson's season to date has demonstrated. Through his first 23 big-league games, he's hitting a miserable .162/.215/.243 with just one homer and one steal. His playing time has slipped as a result, as he's now started just two of the team's last six games, even with Dexter Fowler on the injured list for five of those. Carlson simply hasn't made frequent enough contact, striking out 29.1 percent of the time, or hard enough contact, posting an 84.7 percent average exit velocity.

Archie Bradley, RP, Reds: Perhaps the most significant value changes at the deadline occurred at the back of teams' bullpens. Bradley was the victim this season, as he went from closing in Arizona to setting up for Raisel Iglesias in Cincinnati. Bradley doesn't have the elite ratios necessary to have much fantasy value as a non-closing reliever outside of very deep leagues, as his 25.0 percent strikeout rate is certainly nothing special, while his 3.38 ERA is good but not elite. There's perhaps a case to be made for holding onto Bradley in hopes that he'll usurp Iglesias, whose ERA sits north of 4.00 for the second straight season, though Iglesias' 30.2 percent strikeout rate is far more typical for a ninth-inning arm, and the Reds have stated pretty clearly that he'll remain the closer.

Jon Gray, SP, Rockies: Gray posted an above-average strikeout rate in each of his first five seasons in the league, keeping him fairly interesting despite the fact that he made half of his starts at Coors Field. This season, he's suddenly striking out just 12.6 percent of opposing batters. He's also seen his groundball rate plummet from a career-best 50.4 percent last season to 36.7 percent this year. It's hardly surprising, then, that his ERA has ballooned to 6.69. The shoulder inflammation that sent him to the injured list Friday is likely a contributing factor in his struggles, as his fastball dropped two ticks to 94.0 mph. He's seemingly droppable in nearly every format, and his outlook for next season will take a noticeable hit given his sudden inability to put hitters away.