MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

As strange as it seems, we're now past the halfway point of the season, at least for every team but the Cardinals and Marlins.The small-sample weirdness that some anticipated (or perhaps feared) doesn't seem likely to stain the record books, specifically in the realm of a player pushing to hit .400. Juan Soto and Trea Turner lead qualified hitters with a strong but rather unremarkable .360. 

It was perhaps always wishful thinking to assume that someone could legitimately threaten that hallowed mark, as the league-wide batting average of .244 is the lowest since 1968. That fact becomes even more remarkable when considering that this is the first (and hopefully last, in this writer's opinion) season with a universal designated hitter. Considering just the batting average of non-pitchers, that's the lowest batting average of all time.

We do still have a shot to see some historic seasons, if you allow yourself to enjoy a fun end-of-season statline even when all the necessary asterisks are applied. Soto, who leads qualified hitters with a 209 wRC, has a chance to be the first hitter in the 21st century not named Barry Bonds to finish higher than 200 in that category. On the opposite side, if Adalberto Mondesi continues to receive enough playing time to finish as a qualified hitter but fails to improve on his 17 wRC+, he'll finish with the worst mark in the modern era in that category.

Both Soto and Mondesi have been featured in this column in recent weeks, but this week's article will highlight a different set if players who have gotten off to remarkably strong or weak starts (if a stretch which has been as much as 60 percent of the season in some cases counts as a "start"), as well as a handful whose fortunes have reversed in recent weeks.

RISERS

Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: It's hard to lead with anyone other than Giolito after the righty no-hit the Pirates on Tuesday. It was a completely dominant performance, though in many ways it was barely better than his previous outing against the Tigers, in which he threw seven innings with the same 13:1 K:BB while allowing just three hits. His 3.09 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through seven starts tell the story of his dominance just fine on their own, though that sample is still small enough that those numbers are hurt significantly by his poor season debut against the Twins. Zooming in on just his last six starts, he has a 1.80 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. His 36.7 percent strikeout rate over that stretch is even better than his 32.3 percent from his breakout campaign last season and would have ranked second to only Gerrit Cole among qualified starters last season.

Manny Machado, 3B/SS, Padres: Machado was fine last year, but his .256/.334/.462 batting line was really nothing special and likely fell far short of what the Padres expected from him in the first year of his 10-year, $300 million contract. He's been on an entirely different level this year, however, as his .309/.386/.619 line would give him career highs in all three categories. His 11 homers are good for just two shy of the league lead. Statcast supports his dramatic, across-the-board improvement. His xBA has jumped from .267 to .339, while his xSLG has leapt from .474 to .638. He's also improved his plate discipline, improving his walk rate from 9.8 percent to a career-high 11.4 percent while slashing his strikeout rate from 19.4 to 15.8 percent.

Jesse Winker, OF, Reds: Winker had shown some promise through his first three big-league seasons, though his .285/.379/.466 was good but not elite and looked worse when combined with below-average defense in left field. His fantasy stock was fairly low heading into this season due to the Reds' crowded outfield, but he's emerged as a near-everyday player, spending most of his time as the designated hitter. While his strikeout rate, which had been one of his primary strengths early in his career, has jumped from 15.2 percent over his first three seasons to 24.1 percent this year, he's nevertheless managed to have a career season, posting a .320/.431/.691. He may not be hitting the ball quite as often, but he's traded some quantity of contact for quite a jump in quality. Statcast loves what he's doing, as his exit velocity has jumped from 89.1 mph last season to 92.9 mph this year, while his .304 xBA and .636 xSLG suggest he's not overachieving by much.

Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros: Tucker was an undeniably interesting player heading into the year, just how excited we should have been about him wasn't clear, as he didn't seem to have a clear place to play and seemingly had to fight manager Dusty Baker's preference for veterans. While Tucker sat for two of the team's first three games, he's started every game since, and that's not just because of Yordan Alvarez's battles with COVID-19 and knee issues. It's quite hard to take a player out of the lineup when he owns Tucker's .272/.333/.588 line. Statcast doesn't quite buy all his power, though there's nothing wrong with his .512 xSLG, and his .280 xBA suggests he could hit for more average. His above-average speed, which has helped him swipe four bases, could even help him beat that mark.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: The 32-year-old first baseman appeared to be gradually slipping into fantasy irrelevance, as his wRC+ had dropped steadily for three consecutive seasons, going from 136 to 119 to 108 to 99. That latter mark doesn't really work for a first baseman, or any corner bat, so it certainly wouldn't have been a surprise to see Belt fade into a bench role as the rebuilding Giants worked through younger options. Instead, he's worked his way from a platoon role to a full-time starting gig, something that appears well-deserved given his .313/.400/.590 line. That's entirely the product of a recent hot streak, as he hit .128/.227/.231 in his first 14 games before posting a .477/.549/.909 line over his last 14 games. That's, of course, a small sample, but Statcast absolutely loves the quality of his contact this year. His barrel rate has more than doubled, sitting at 19.0 percent after coming in at 8.7 percent last season, while his .626 xSLG suggests he could be hitting for even more power.

Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers: Boyd fit the profile of the type of pitcher I was particularly interested in during this short season, as his high strikeout rate last year seemed likely to remain, while his mediocre ERA could vary widely in either direction, offering the potential for a big profit it if happened to move in the right direction with a bit of BABIP luck. Through his first four starts of the year, that looked like a truly awful prediction, as the lefty owned a 10.24 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP while striking out just 18.8 percent of batters. Suddenly, in his last three outings, he's turned things around dramatically, posting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP while striking out 32.8 percent of opposing batters while walking just 4.7 percent. Those numbers are quite reminiscent of his 30.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate from last season. Three good starts is, of course, quite a small sample, but so was his four-start slump, so it seems like it's relatively safe to get back on the Boyd train.

FALLERS

Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees: Judge is injured yet again. He hit the injured list for the second time this year Friday, again with calf issues. His previous calf strain sent him to the injured list for less than two weeks, and he reportedly thought he didn't have to miss even that much time, but his own assessment of his health was evidently overly optimistic, as he appeared in just one game before aggravating the issue. This time around, he's expected to miss at least three weeks, meaning he'll have at most little more than a week to make an impact upon his return. That forces some difficult decisions for fantasy owners in leagues without injured list spots. Judge is obviously talented enough to help a ton in even just a week's worth of games, but it's hard to be confident that he'll be able to return without any more setbacks, and it would only take a minor setback for him to have already played in his final game of the regular season.

Jo Adell, OF, Angels: It's perhaps unfair to call anyone a "faller" just 19 games into his big-league career, but given that Adell was taken as a mid-round pick this offseason (with an NFBC ADP of 246.9), it's safe to say he's fallen well short of expectations. His placement here would have looked better prior to Saturday, when he hit with first two major-league homers, but his overall .181/.243/.292 line remains quite poor. Statcast doesn't really think he's underachieving, giving him a .169 xBA and a .274 xSLG. He's simply looked overmatched, striking out in 41.6 percent of his plate appearances. There's a strong case to be made that any preseason excitement for Adell, who's still just 21 and still likely has a bright future ahead of him, was very premature, as he sure didn't look big-league ready in his 27-game cameo for Triple-A Salt Lake last season, posting a 67 wRC+ while striking out 32.6 percent of the time.

Shogo Akiyama, OF, Reds: It's never easy to calibrate our expectations for a player in his first season coming over from a foreign league, but it's safe to say that Akiyama is falling far short of any reasonable set. Even while being restricted to a pure platoon role, the 32-year-old is hitting a very disappointing .202/.290/.258 through 101 plate appearances. Some of that has to do with his .269 BABIP, but he's also simply not hitting the ball very hard. Statcast gives him a .239 xBA and a .339 xSLG, suggesting that he deserves better results than he's seen but certainly not suggesting that he's making particularly good contact. It's a rather unimpressive showing from a player who hit .296 or better in each of his last five seasons in Japan and who hit at least 20 homers in each of his last three campaigns.

Joe Jimenez, RP, Tigers: Jimenez was drafted as more or less a safe closer for the Tigers, as he didn't seem to have much competition for the role. While he had just a modest 12 saves heading into the year, he looked like he had the tools for the job, as he struck out 31.9 percent of batters last year. He was removed from the role this past week, however, in a reminder that hardly any closer is safe even if his competitors are the likes of Gregory Soto, Jose Cisnero and Buck Farmer. Jimenez certainly hasn't deserved a closing role with an 11.70 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP while striking out just 20.8 percent of batters. Given that he now owns a 5.83 career ERA in 151.1 big-league innings, it's far from guaranteed that he'll be back in a ninth-inning role any time soon.