MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Note: the positive tone in the introduction below made plenty of sense when it was written Sunday night, but seems a bit jarring given the news that two games were cancelled Monday following the Marlins' coronavirus outbreak. I've chosen to leave it as a monument to happier times and because there's really no sense in fantasy players taking a worst-case outlook. As long as there's baseball being played, we gain nothing by managing our teams as if the season will suddenly come to a screeching halt.

Man, is it good to have Major League Baseball back, cardboard cutouts, fake crowd noise and all. For those of us who are still stuck isolating at home nearly all day every day, the sheer quantity of meaningful baseball games that is suddenly available is overwhelming in the most positive of ways. Nothing beats Background Noise Baseball. I'm thrilled to have the game back, even if my beloved Phillies started 1-2 (or is it 2.7-5.4?) against the lowly Marlins.

From a fantasy perspective, this season will be a psychological test like no other. On the one hand, there are only 57 games left in the season, and we're all within striking distance of the league leader, so there should be the same sense of urgency you'd feel if you were in that position in late July in a normal season. On the other hand, we're just three games into the year, so you shouldn't be any more worried than if your players were struggling in late March.

There's no template for how to go about balancing those two truths, though I believe we mostly have to err toward the latter. Small samples are still small this year, even if they represent nearly three times as large a portion of the season as a whole. It's probably safe to churn the back end of your roster a bit more aggressively than normal, but panicking when one of your better players has an early slump remains a bad idea. With that in mind, this week's Barometer will focus primarily on role changes, as there isn't a whole lot to be gleaned from three games worth of stats.

RISERS

Ji-Man Choi, 1B, Rays: Choi is a switch hitter now? He apparently worked on his ability to hit from the right side of the plate during camp, and it sure looks as though he can pull it off, as he blasted a homer to straightaway center off southpaw Anthony Kay on Sunday. While it will take more than one game to know whether he can hit well enough from the right side of the plate to be an everyday player, the early results are undoubtedly encouraging. Choi has been relegated to platoon duty most of his career due to his .185/.288/.296 slash line as a left-handed hitter against southpaws, but if he can carve out a greater role, his stock would increase significantly.

Nate Pearson, SP, Blue Jays: It's remained unclear when Pearson would be called on for his major league debut, with some reports during the shutdown period indicating that he wouldn't appear at all until 2021 and others suggesting that he'd be a major player for most of the year. The latest reports out of Toronto indicate that he'll be called up Wednesday, the earliest possible date on which the Blue Jays can deny him a year of free agency, as he evidently will suddenly become big-league ready less than a week into the regular season. The 23-year-old righty is one of the top pitching prospects in the game and was dominant across the three highest levels of the minors last season, posting a 2.30 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, a 30.7 percent strikeout rate and a 7.0 percent walk rate in 25 starts. Just three of those starts came at the Triple-A level, but pitchers can move quite quickly once they're ready, and Pearson sure seems to be.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets: Reports on Cespedes' health seemed generally positive throughout camp, but given that he hadn't played in more than two years, due first to a pair of heel surgeries and then to a wild-boar-related ankle fracture, fantasy players could be forgiven for wanting to see proof before diving in. He seemed to provide that proof Friday, homering to give the Mets a 1-0 win. He's started all three games this year, serving as the designated hitter in each. It would be a stretch to say that he'll definitely be back to peak form this season, as his long layoff combined with his age (34) will almost definitely lead to at least a modest drop in performance, be he can at minimum be treated as an everyday player who's still capable of hitting homers.

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners: While I said in the introduction that this week's column wouldn't focus heavily on early season stats, I'll make an exception for Lewis. The 25-year-old was already generating plenty of buzz late in draft season due to some impressive power displays in camp. He delivered on the hype right away, homering off Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers in the first two games of the year. Of course, he's also struck out six times in his first 13 plate appearances of the season after posting a 38.7 percent strikeout rate in his 18-game debut last September, so we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. But he didn't strike out at this sort of clip in the minors, posting a career 25.5 percent strikeout rate, so there's reason to believe he can manage his whiffs and remain a productive player.

Didi Gregorius, SS, Phillies: It's possible that Gregorius' inclusion here is an overreaction to a small sample, but given the way his season went in New York last season following his return from Tommy John surgery, it was certainly quite encouraging to see him homer in both of his first two games with the Phillies. Citizens Bank Park should suit his pull-power swing just as well as Yankee Stadium did, if early results are any indication. Gregorius did still display plenty of power in his 82 games last year, hitting 16 homers, but he saw his overall line collapse to .238/.276/.441 after it sat at .268/.335/.494 the season prior. His walk rate was cut nearly in half from 8.4 to 4.9 percent, while his strikeout rate jumped from 12.1 to 15.4 percent. It's far too early to conclude that he's reversed that trend this year, but the fact that he walked twice while striking out just once in the opening series is encouraging as well. 

FALLERS

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros: Per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, Verlander will be out the rest of the season with a serious elbow injury. Per Verlander himself, however, he has a forearm strain and could be back after a few weeks of rest. Even if that more optimistic outlook proves correct, he's still set to miss a significant portion of the shortened season. The 37-year-old has been quite healthy over the course of his 16-year career, making at least 30 starts in 13 of the last 14 seasons, but the toll of his 2,988 career innings might be finally catching up to him. This latest issue is already his third known medical problem of the season, as he battled a lat strain in March before undergoing groin surgery later in that month.

James Paxton, SP, Yankees: Paxton featured as a riser in this column during the shutdown period, on the theory that the delayed start would give him the time to recover from back surgery and be a full participant in the upcoming season. While he did indeed recover in time to take his first turn in the rotation, he didn't look anything close to good. His fastball was about 92 mph, three full ticks below where he's sat in recent seasons. As you might expect, that did not bode well for his performance, as he allowed three runs on five hits while recording just three outs. We can forgive a guy for one bad start, but when that poor performance is easily explained by what appears to be a significant downturn in his underlying talent, there's reason to be worried.

Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels: While we ordinarily shouldn't overreact to one bad start in a player's first outing of the year, there are reasons to worry in certain circumstances. When that start is as bad as Ohtani's season debut Sunday against Oakland, in which he allowed five runs on three hits and three walks without recording a single out, it's hard not to worry. When that start is a pitcher's first in nearly 23 months due to Tommy John surgery, it's even harder not to be concerned that his arm may not be what it once was. The fact that the two-way star's fastball velocity averaged just 92.9 mph after it came in at 96.7 mph in his debut back in 2018 seems particularly worrisome. Fortunately for Ohtani managers in most formats, the fallback plan of using him as a designated hitter should allow him to retain a fair amount of value, as he's a career .285/.350/.530 hitter through 222 major-league games, but it's nevertheless quite discouraging to see such a poor pitching performance to start the year.

Gavin Lux, 2B, Dodgers: In something of a surprise move, the promising young infielder was left off the Dodgers' Opening Day roster. There are a number of possible factors that could explain the decision, and figuring out just how much to weigh each one will inform how much to chance our perception of him going forward. Service-time manipulation could be part of the decision, though that seems somewhat unlikely, as Lux already spent last September on the big-league roster, so the Dodgers would have to keep him down for quite a while to steal a year of free agency from him. The move is likely partially related to the fact that he was unable to report to camp until July 10, so he could join the team as soon as he's considered ready for game action. That's the more positive outlook, but the more negative one is that the Dodgers are so loaded that they simply don't need him. Enrique Hernandez demonstrated as much with his hot start to the season, and Chris Taylor is a very overqualified utility man. Lux should still play a role at some point, but those who drafted him as if he'd be something close to a true starter for much of the year (a group that includes me in several leagues) could be disappointed.

Ian Kennedy, RP, Royals: Royals manager Mike Matheny went against his old-school reputation in mid-March by stating that he might not use a dedicated closer this season. The broader fantasy community seems to have largely ignored that statement, as Kennedy's NFBC ADP actually rose from 212.7 prior to the statement and 197.9 afterward. Those who drafted Kennedy were in for a rude awakening Saturday, when he pitched the sixth and seventh innings while Greg Holland struck out the side in the 10th inning to record the save. If Matheny sticks to his supposed plan and never names a closer, it could well be Kennedy who gets the next save opportunity, but if he reverts to his roots, it would hardly be a surprise to see Holland wind up in the role on a permanent basis, as the "proven closer" has 207 career saves.