Mound Musings: Please Fasten Your Seatbelts …

… and, make sure your tray tables and seat backs are in the upright position. We are about to play some baseball! It seems like such a long road we have traveled, and there have certainly been many curves in the road, but it's time to watch those curves catch a corner of the plate. This promises to be a crazy season. It might feel like a sprint at a track meet rather than a baseball season with a 60-game schedule, but I'm excited!

The COVID-19 pandemic has been, and continues to be, a major complication, but I am very encouraged by two things. First the overall incidence of positive tests has been relatively low. Only about 1.8 percent of the players tested came back positive, and those who have tested positive are generally recovering (if they were suffering any symptoms) and testing negative within a couple weeks. If this trend continues, we can hopefully expect minimal impact on team fosters as the season gets under way. There likely will be some players who run out of time to fully prepare, but they may be game ready soon.

Not surprisingly, there has been considerable speculation regarding the impact of everything that has happened (or is happening) on this year's fantasy playground. I'm one of those speculators. Initially, I was concerned that short prep time might make it difficult for pitchers to get stretched out for the regular season, but I am changing my mind based on reports from Spring Training 2.0, especially with regard to many of the front line starting pitchers. Clayton Kershaw tossed 91 pitches in a game earlier this week, and Chris Paddack completed six innings, albeit requiring only 71 pitches to accomplish that. Many of these guys are close to regular season strength, and I now expect to see many of the better starters to pitch at least five or six innings in their first or second start of the year.

Don't be fooled though. There is still a severe lack of quality starting pitching. There simply isn't enough to go around, and I think that will be even more problematic, or at least challenging, for fantasy owners in this crazy season. Can I trust this fringy fifth or sixth starter? Will this guy pitch enough innings to even qualify for a win (let alone a quality start)? In the bullpen games, are there relievers who potentially offer some value? What about the higher level prospects who will probably get some starts? And, the big one, how do I maximize my pitching in my fantasy league?

Let's discuss those questions one at a time:

The fifth or sixth starter: The short answer is probably not. Back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers remain very risky. In fact, with an increased likelihood of teams having more players on te injured list, a fifth or sixth starter could be even deeper than that. This year it may be more important than most to invoke the "do no harm" angle. There will probably be a small handful of fifth and sixth starters who will provide positive production for a fantasy team. However, they likely will be few and far between, and with a very abbreviated 60-game schedule, implosions on the mound will be harder than usual to overcome. A few bad innings could wreck your ERA and WHIP for the season. And, that time bomb probably didn't pitch deep enough into the game to qualify for a win, even if his offense did their best to provide enough runs. Naturally, we will be on the lookout for that diamond in the rough, but tread carefully when seeking a new and better pitcher.

Wins and quality starts: This is the realm at the other end of the universe. At the top of the rotation is where we might find wins, and, I think, quality starts. Most (not all) teams have a viable "ace" or at least one viable top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. The better teams – those most likely to be in the hunt for postseason play – could have two or three guys who fit this description. These pitchers are already the best bets for wins and quality starts, but I think this unique season could make them a bit more valuable than in normal seasons. My premise is this: Teams want to win (and hopefully make the playoffs). With just 60 games, starting pitchers will get just 11 or 12 starts (although there have been whispers that we could occasionally see four-man rotations) and that means pitchers won't approach even 100 innings when a typical year would provide quite a few of the best pitchers to eclipse 200 innings. Pitching staffs will only toss about 540 innings this year. The temptation will be there for managers to extend their best pitchers deeper into games to increase the percentage of innings hurled by these guys. Workload concerns will be far less problematic. And, with the universal designated hitter, the need for pinch-hitting will even be reduced in the National League. A larger percentage of innings pitched by the best arms equates to potentially higher value, with the largest bumps earned by mid-rotation starters who win the manager's confidence. Those primary will targets here in the Musings this season.

Help from the bullpen: Those top starting pitchers can't pitch all the innings; there aren't enough of them. So, there will be variations of "bullpen" games with openers, piggybacks and/or primaries being deployed. I don't think even the most durable relievers can pitch in every game even though a few have said they would like to try. That said, there should be opportunity here. Again, I am going to lean heavily on manager's trust and the bottom line – performance. The short schedule will allow for somewhat heavier usage of the top relievers, and managers will take advantage of that. The deeper bullpens will provide cannon fodder to eat up innings in games that get out of hand with lopsided scores. Avoid those guys (do no harm). The piggyback pitchers could have some value as the guys most likely to be working the fifth inning, but I would make certain the potential benefits outweigh the ratios risk. As always, manager confidence will wax and wane, so the trusted reliever list will change, but in most cases, the upcoming changes will become more and more evident.

Anticipating the arrival of top pitching prospects: This season, perhaps more than any other, could provide pitching prospect junkies (raises my hand) unprecedented opportunities to catch lightning in a bottle. No minor league season means most of these guys are on 60-man rosters, and many of them will get a chance to prove they are ready for the show. In my opinion, the best (and closest) prospects are worth the gamble. They are certainly more appealing to proven mediocrities – or worse – who will populate the back of many rotations. I am excited. I really look forward to seeing exceptionally high ceiling prospects when/if they arrive. I do think we'll see San Diego's MacKenzie Gore at some point this year. Toronto only as to wait a week into the season to lock in an extra year of arbitration for their top gun, Nate Pearson, so we might see him very soon. Even Forrest Whitley could see time with Astros if his command comes around. There is risk with young, unproven pitchers, but the rewards could be worth the risk

Bringing it all together: When you add up all the factors in play for 2020, it looks like there could be bigger gaps than usual between the good, the bad and the ugly. I'm bumping up the value of the better (the good) pitchers just a bit, both starters and relievers, and being a bit more cautious when considering the addition of a fringy (potentially bad) pitcher to my staff. As for the ugly, well I generally don't give them a second thought anyway. I think I might even add a category. Maybe the "not so bad" for mid-rotation types and perhaps even kids who have the upside to move into that good category at a discounted price. Maybe I'll call them the NSBs. Look for guys I spot and decide to move into that category throughout the season. I'm afraid we will continue to occasionally see players testing positive for the virus all season, and I'm also concerned there might be players walking the fence between playing and opting out this season, who could decide against playing over the next couple weeks. Just remain vigilant, and be aware your fantasy staff could take a potentially significant hit at any time.

Let me throw out a couple NSB candidates. These are guys I feel could move up the food chain as the season progresses, making them possible value acquisitions:

• Kenta Maeda (Twins) – He split time between the rotation and the bullpen with the Dodgers, but I expect him to become a rotation fixture in his new home. He isn't overpowering, but he can throw a wide variety of quality pitches for strikes. I like his demeanor on the mound, and pitching against relatively weak teams in the Central divisions in front of that offense sets him up for a big year.
• Trevor Bauer (Reds) – Bauer is considerably better than the mediocre numbers (4.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP he posted last year. He just never got into a rhythm leading to more pitches up and out over the plate, fewer ground balls and more home runs. Often fantasy owners overreact to an offseason despite the pitcher's realistic upside and it creates nice value. I'm buying if the price is right.
• Dinelson Lamet (Padres) – I have been very high on Lamet since he came on the scene a couple years ago. I had to be patient as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, but he came back strong last season. He has just slightly better command of his secondary pitches from moving into the ace category, and I believe one day soon, maybe this year, he leads the league in strikeouts.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Rays got some great news when Tyler Glasnow reported to camp earlier this week. The news was even better when he was able to throw 49 pitches in a simulated game. He might be a little short when the season begins, but he appears to be fairly close to full speed. I'm expecting a big season from him.
• I am confident the Dodgers' Walker Buehler will soon become one of those workhorse aces who pitches as deeply into games as possible. However, it is unlikely to happen right out of the gate. Buehler has not had the chance to fully build up his stamina and is probably looking at pitch limitations early on.
• Houston's Josh James has second starter stuff while often displaying middle reliever command. That translates into huge upside if he can ever consistently throw strikes. I saw some very positive signs at times last year, so maybe he is on the brink of taking that next big step, and he should get the chance this year.
• The Mets sent ace Jacob deGrom for an MRI on his sore back. The results don't sound overly concerning right now, but even the minimal damage may put Opening Day in jeopardy, and with Noah Syndergaard already out for the season, any significant time off probably takes them out of the 2020 hunt.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Odyssey continues for teams attempting to settle bullpen roles for the upcoming season. Jordan Hicks has now opted out of the 2020 season, but that didn't clarify things for the Cardinals. Giovanny Gallegos has yet to report to camp, and last year's fill in – and probably their best option – Carlos Martinez presumably is still being considered for a rotation spot. That could leave the ninth inning to some combination of Ryan Helsley, Andrew Miller and/or John Gant. The Dodgers received good news when Kenley Jansen passed the return protocols and began working out in camp. He should be good to go fairly soon, but Blake Treinen could get a couple save chances early on. Unfortunately for the Yankees, their closer Aroldis Chapman has now tested positive and probably won't be ready for Opening Day. Zack Britton figures to see most of the save chances until he makes it back. Seattle's Yoshihisa Hirano has yet to report to camp and that may take him out of the hunt for the closer's gig. That could mean more opportunities for Matt Magill but he's not a great option, and I think it's only a matter of time before Austin Adams (or Carl Edwards or Dan Altavilla) takes over.