NL FAAB Factor: Early July Update

We are settling into a mild sense of normalcy for baseball, as camps opened this week. Granted, nothing is set in stone, and as we have seen from the number of positive COVID cases and players opting out, there is no true normal. As such, to quote John Steinbeck, "the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry," so even though MLB and MLBPA have a very detailed health protocol, the season still could be canceled at any moment.

The hope clearly for all of us is that there will be baseball and that the season continued unimpeded to a World Series winner on the field. We will be here weekly until the playoffs to provide FAAB advice for both the NL and AL. Once leagues start to resume drafting in earnest and we get closer to the start of the season, we will project bids. For now, we decided that the situation is a bit too unclear to project with any remote kind of certainty, even more so than the usual sense of uncertainty when it comes to bids. But if you have questions on players, happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

As said last week, baseball is back. If you haven't been prepping during the pandemic, get cracking, If you have been, hopefully the info in this column helps. Look for additional information and the names as the season approaches.

STARTING PITCHER 

Adbert Alzolay/Jharel Cotton/Alec Mills, Cubs: All three are in the mix to break camp as Chicago's fifth starter with Jose Quintana unlikely to be ready for the start of the season after undergoing thumb surgery Thursday. In addition, Quintana's absence somewhat solidifies Tyler Chatwood's hold on the fourth rotation slot. Alzolay's smaller frame and lack of a strong third pitch to complement his fastball and curve would seem to point to him filling a bullpen role, but his strong K rate gives him a chance at starting. Cotton missed all 2018 due to Tommy John surgery and was limited to 30.1 innings last season due to hamstring woes. Mills excelled in a swingman role for the Cubs in 2019, posting a 2.75 ERA and 42:11 K:BB across nine appearances (36 innings), including four starts, giving him a leg up on the other two. 

Trevor Cahill, Giants: Cahill was released by the Giants but re-signed on a minor-league contract last Sunday, and he'll be with the team for spring training 2.0. He enters spring camp with a shot at earning a spot in the starting rotation. Cahill bottomed out last year, before missing time with an elbow injury and righting the ship slightly after he move to the bullpen. If he falls to earn a starting rotation role, look for him to pitch out of the bullpen.   

Taylor Clarke/Jon Duplantier/Alex Young, Diamondbacks: With Mike Leake opting not to participate in the season due to COVID concerns, Clarke, Duplantier and Young move up a spot on the depth chart. Merrill Kelly is expected to fill Leake's rotation slot while those three pitchers as depth options. All three likely will see work as most teams will use more than five starters. If betting on one, go with Young, though Duplantier has the better pedigree. 

Erick Fedde/Austin Voth, Nationals:  Joe Ross' decision to opt out of the 2002 season leaves a hole in the Washington rotation. Heading into spring camp, Fedde and Voth are the favorites to fill that spot. If selecting one, go for Voth, who has a solid four-pitch arsenal but has been plagued by inconsistency in his career. Voth followed up a strong September last season with a 1.29 ERA and 6:1 K:BB in seven spring innings. Fedde has had numerous kicks at the can, but posted a 5.39 ERA through 143.2 innings over the last three seasons. He did sport a solid 2.45 ERA and 7:4 K:BB through 7.1 innings this spring, but Voth looks to have a leg up on the spot.

Derek Holland, Pirates: Holland enters summer camp penciled in as the Pirates' fourth starter. The season-ending injury to Chris Archer secured Holland's rotation spot. The lefty compiled a 3.95 ERA in 13.2 innings this spring, though five of the 10 hits he allowed left the ballpark. Holland had a brief resurgence in 2018 but fell back to earth last year, so tread accordingly.  

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks: Kelly's spot in Arizona's starting rotation is all but cast in stone with Mike Leake not pitching this season. He struggled a bit in his first season back in the US, but still led the Diamondbacks in inning pitched at 183.1 while going 13-14 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 32 starts. Kelly is over the wrist injury he had this spring and should be the team's No. 4 or 5 starter, but if he struggles, he could be moved to the bullpen.  

Kwang-Hyun Kim, Cardinals: Kim, profiled about a month ago, saw his value potentially drop a bit, as will now have to battle Carlos Martinez for the No. 5 starter's job during summer camp after manager Mike Shildt said that he envisions the Cardinals sticking with a five-man rotation during the 60-game season. Even if that proves to be the case and Kim moves to the pen, each of St. Louis' starters likely will need a turn off at some point, opening the door for Kim, who after 12 years in South Korea, signed a two-year, $8 million deal with the Cardinals this offseason. He went 17-6 with a 2.51 ERA and 8.5 K/9 last season (sixth among starters), using a low-to-mid-90s fastball and excellent slider to retire hitters. Kim's lack of fastball velocity could hurt him in the majors, but he should benefit from his funky delivery and ability to throw strikes. In addition, the lack of a "book" on him and shortened season should aid his chances of earning and keeping a significant role on the St. Louis staff. 

Dustin May/Ross Stripling, Dodgers: May, profiled last week, gets another mention, as his path to opening the season in the Dodgers' rotation just got a bit easier with David Price announcing Saturday, he will sit out this season. With the delayed start and abbreviated season necessitating a deeper starting rotation, Los Angeles could use as many as eight starters to navigate the shortened, condensed season, which will result in fewer days off and an expanded roster. Due to this scenario, May, who posted a posting a 2.82 ERA and 17:3 K:BB over 22.1 innings as a starter, was already likely to move into the major league rotation. Stripling also benefits from all these occurrences, as he is now next in line and should see at least a handful of starts. He made 15 starts and 17 relief appearances for the Dodgers last season, posting a strong 3.47 ERA on the back of a 25.1 percent strikeout rate and a 5.4 percent walk rate. 

Max Meyer, Marlins: Meyer, selected third overall in the recent draft, signed on Thursday and was added by Miami to its 60-man roster pool. His contract includes a $6.7 million signing bonus, The 21-year-old right-hander with the premium fastball-slider combo should be viewed as a longshot to crack the club's 30-man Opening Day roster, but with no minor-league season being played in 2020, Meyer will at least benefit developmentally by being around a team structure for the next few months. If Meyer pitches for the big club at all in 2020, it would likely come as a reliever. Meyer's value is pretty limited to keeper leagues, based on the likely minimal impact he will have this season and he projects to remain a starter. 

Miles Mikolas, Cardinals – Mikolas closed 2019 with a sore flexor tendon, which required a platelet-rich plasma injection on Feb. 18. That injury prevented him from throwing for nearly a month and he most certainly would have missed the first 2-3 moths of the regular season. The delayed start to the due to the Corona pandemic has allowed Mikolas, who threw a few bullpen sessions and worked out with the team during the break, to be ready for summer camp and likely the start of the season. He is penciled in as St. Louis No. 2 starter. 

Sean Newcomb, Braves: Felix Hernandez announced Saturday night that he will not pitch in 2020 due to COVID concerns. That decision means that Atlanta now is looking for a fifth starter. Newcomb will battle Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright for the position with all three able to fill the role of spot starter or long reliever. Atlanta, like many other teams, could need 7-10 starters to get through a condensed season, opening the door for each of the three pitchers to start at some point. Newcomb has shown that he is better suited to relieving, as his stuff, including his K rate, plays better in the bullpen. But he posted a 2.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and impressive 11:2 K:BB in nine innings this spring and could slot into Hernandez's slot. The Braves do have several other options besides Wilson and Wright, including Touki Toussaint, to earn roles on the parent club. But even in the bullpen, Newcomb is worth owning in single-leagues, but for now, he projects to land the fifth starter role.

RELIEF PITCHER

Brad Boxberger, Marlins – Boxberger, who has closing experience and was in spring training with the Marlins, is part of Miami's 60-man summer camp. He showed improved velocity this spring, getting his fastball in the 94-mph range, his highest since his 2015 season with Kansas City. Brandon Kintzler, Ryne Stanek (back) and Yimi Garcia are better bets to get saves this year, but it wouldn't be that surprising if Boxberger got enough late-inning opportunities to record a couple saves and holds. in the condensed season. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $3 

John Gant/Ryan Helsley/Andrew Miller, Cardinals: Giovanny Gallegos won't be present for the early portions of the Cardinals' summer training while he remains in Mexico. The timing of his arrival could impact Gallegos' availability to start the season and serve as the team's closer with Jordan Hicks (elbow) opening the year on the injured list. If Gallegos is not ready, Helsley and Miller might be the favorites to co-close with Gant behind those two. Miller has the pedigree and history while Helsley transitioned nicely from starting to the pen last season and if his cutter and changeup remain effective, he could close. 

Seth Lugo, Mets: Lugo, who posted 21 holds and six saves last year while filling a key role out of the late-inning bullpen for the Mets, could be the pitcher the team calls on most early in the season if any starters are on limited pitch counts. New York is reluctant to use Lugo on back-to-back nights due to his elbow, but can stretch him out for longer outings several times a week. If this the direction new manager Luis Rojas utilizes, Lugo could post more strikeouts than originally projected while also serving as a prime candidate to vulture wins during the shortened campaign.  

Kodi Whitley, Cardinals: Whitney is not on the Cardinals' 40-man roster but he did earn a spot on their summer camp team. He earned that assignment by posting a combined 1.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 78:19 K:BB across 50 appearances over all three levels of the minors last season, and he followed those impressive numbers up with six scoreless Grapefruit League outings before spring training was suspended. If looking for a dark, dark horse out of the St. Louis pen this summer, Whitney could be your man.

CATCHER

Joey Bart, Giants: Buster Posey reported to Giants' camp but is considering not playing this season due to the pandemic. He will make that decision in the coming weeks. If Posey does sit, this leaves a big hole behind the plate for San Francisco with Bart a potential beneficiary. Originally, Bart was to be in major-league camp but wasn't considered a candidate for the Opening Day roster. This view could change if Posey does opt out even though Bart has played just 22 games at Double-A. Tyler Heineman was competing with Rob Brantly (also on a minor-league deal) to be Posey's backup with Aramis Garcia (hip) out until mid-August. Now both could make the team, especially if Bart is deemed not ready, 

FIRST BASE

Kevin Cron/Jake Lamb, Diamondbacks: Cron and Lamb are listed as a matched set, as they should share the DH spot. Lamb has been unable to remain healthy the last two seasons. But a universal DH allows Lamb's bat to remain in the lineup, limiting his time in the field and potential for injury. At worse, Lamb, who in 2016-17 averaged 29.5 home runs and 98 runs batted in, should play against righties, against whom he has a career .814 OPS. Cron, a minor-league masher who belted 44 home runs between Triple-A Reno and Arizona in 2019 — albeit with an inability to make consistent contact and high-K rate — should start against righties lefties.

Matt Davidson, Reds: Davidson is part of the Reds' 60-man summer camp after hitting .333/.429/.778 with two home runs and six strikeouts in 21 plate appearances as a non-roster invitee this spring. He spent all of last season at Triple-A Nashville, where he hit .264/.339/.527 with 33 home runs and 101 RBI over 125 games. Davidson will be training at Great American Ball Park with the Reds' best hitters, so he could see MLB time this season, particularly as a designated hitter. If that happens, look for a decent amount of home runs with a weak BA and OBA.

John Nogowski, Cardinals: Nogowski's combination of power and discerning eye at the plate could lead to him making the Cardinals' active roster at some point during the 2020 season. Already on the 60-man summer camp roster, Nogowski slugged a total of 27 home runs across the 200 minor-league games he logged over the last two seasons in Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis while posting no lower than a .378 OBA each of the past three seasons. Paul Goldschmidt is locked in to first base and the Cardinals do have many options for the DH spot, but if Nogowski continues to hit, he will force his way onto the major-league team sometime in 2020. 

SECOND BASE 

Brendan Rodgers, Rockies: When the season was scheduled to begin on time, Rodgers was a stash candidate. He underwent season-ending surgery last July to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, which likely would have slowed his return to action. That injury coupled with his poor 25 game performance in the majors probably meant a start to the season in Triple-A. The delayed start has allowed Rodgers to be ready when action resumes, though his role is unclear. If Daniel Murphy is moved to DH, Ryan McMahon slots in at first base, opening the keystone for Rodgers with Garrett Hampson also in the mix. In most leagues, Rodgers is only second-base eligible, which will be his position with Trevor Story the Rockies' shortstop for now and in the future.

Ildemaro Vargas, Diamondbacks: Vargas is expected to be carried on the D-Backs' active roster to start the season. He was having a strong spring before the pandemic shut down hit. With 30-man rosters to start play, Vargas along with Josh Rojas and Jon Jay should open the season on the active roster. Eventually, the roster limit drops to 28 then to 26, so there will be some cuts during the first month of the season. But Vargas' ability to play multiple position should give him an edge, at least on Jay. 

THIRD BASE

Logan Forsythe, Phillies: Forsythe, whose career has fallen off a cliff since 2016, is part of the Phillies' 60-man summer camp roster. He faces an uphill battle to make the team, as he is battling Neil Walker and Josh Harrison for what could be the final roster spot. But Foysthe has solid career numbers against southpaws, which would be his role if he earns a spot, aided by the extra few players to make each team this season. 

Carter Kieboom, Nationals: Kieboom struggled in his first exposure to major league pitching, a situation other top prospects have experienced. But his brilliant numbers in the PCL last season, coupled with Kieboom being 23 percent better than the average PCL hitter despite being the youngest qualified hitter on the circuit bode well for future success. Kieboom, profiled last week gets another mention, as it was announced this week that he will get an immediate chance to show he is ready for the majors, opening the season as the team's starting third baseman. Washington brought in Starlin Castro to play second and Asdrubal Cabrera back as a safety net and also have Howie Kendrick in case Kieboom isn't ready. But Kendrick is penciled in as the starting DH with Ryan Zimmermann opting out of the season due to family reasons while Cabrera will be used to fill in at several positions.  

Sean Rodriguez, Marlins: Rodriguez, who has been unable to stay healthy the past few seasons, is on Miami's 60-man summer camp roster. Before spring training was suspended in mid-March, Rodriguez was already a candidate to break camp with the club as a member of the 26-man Opening Day roster, and the expanded roster size coupled with his ability to play all over the infield and outfield should only bolster his chances of sticking around with the Marlins for the duration of 2020. Look for S-Rod to see time against southpaws, against whom he has had most of his success.  

SHORTSTOP

Jorge Mateo, Padres: The Padres acquired Mateo from the Athletics on Tuesday in exchange for a player to be named. It just seems like Mateo, who still needs to work on strike-zone awareness and pitch recognition, has been around forever, yet he is still just 25. Mateo was in a bit of a roster crunch in Oakland but should have a better chance at carving out playing time in San Diego. Fernando Tatis has shortstop locked down while Jurickson Profar, Greg Garcia and Ty France are the top options at the keystone; the latter spot where Mateo likely fits. Mateo has no remaining minor-league options and as a result is likely to be a member of the season-opening, 30-man roster, even if he only ends up filling a bench role.

Cole Tucker, Pirates: Tucker has earned a spot on the Pirates' 60-man summer camp roster. He will initially have backup duties in the middle infield behind Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman, the projected starters at second base and shortstop, Down the road, Tucker could earn a starting spot, where he figures to be a glove-first shortstop with 20-steal potential. 

OUTFIELD

Seth Beer, Diamondbacks: Beer, acquired last season in the Zack Greinke deal and originally slated to start the season in the minors, is part of the D-Backs' 60-man summer camp. In 2019, Beer slashed .289/.388/516 with 26 home runs in 2019, splitting time between the High-A and Double-A levels. The universal DH rule for the 2020 shortened season could increase Beer's chances to see MLB work this year, though, as of now, Jake Lamb is penciled in to see most of the at-bats at that position. Beer has increased value in keeper leagues, so adjust your bid accordingly.  

Melky Cabrera, Mets: The Melk man might get a chance to deliver for another New York team, Cabrera signed a non-guaranteed contract with the Mets last Monday and will be part of the team's 60-man summer camp. He went unsigned this spring after batting .280 with seven home runs and 47 RBI in 397 plate appearances last year with the Pirates. Cabrera brings a solid eye to the plate but his speed and power has diminished over time. He'll likely have to settle for part-time duty at best with the Mets in 2020, with Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo, Jake Marisnick and Dominic Smith all likely ahead of him in the outfield pecking order. 

Dylan Carlson, Cardinals: Carlson, covered last week, is on the Cardinals' 60-man summer camp roster. He fully exploded on the scene last season, moving from nice to top-tier prospect. Question remain as to whether he is ready for major-league pitching, but he did not look out of place this spring, carrying his 2019 performance forward. Despite just playing 18 games at Triple-A, Carlson made a major impression on the Cardinals' major-league coaching staff this spring. Dexter Fowler, Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas are battling for playing time in the outfield, but the Universal DH might allow Carlson to make the team with Matt Carpenter manning that spot and Tommy Edman at the hot corner. However, it's worth noting that Carlson could begin the regular season with a Triple-A designation as a procedural move; service-time rules in place for 2020 dictate a team could gain an extra year of control if a player spends at least seven days assigned to a minor-league team in the organization. 

Yoenis Cespedes, Mets: Cespedes, profiled last week and earlier this season, is mentioned again as he reached sprint speed during his workouts in quarantine, according to manager Luis Rojas. Despite this, he is still a major wild card, as the 34-year old wasn't yet running the bases or taking part in fielding drills when MLB suspended play, and it's not clear how ready he will be to patrol the outfield once action resumes. But the implementation of universal DH in 2020 and late start of the season add to the likelihood of Cespedes providing positive value for his owners and the Mets. Add in pending free agency and the desire to cash in on the open market and you should have a motivated Yo, though Dominic Smith, Robinson Cano and J.D. Davis should also factor in the DH mix. 

Phillip Ervin, Reds: Ervin is viewed as a near-lock to be part of the Reds' 30-man Opening Day roster. Aristides Aquino will train at the Reds' secondary complex the next three weeks cementing Ervin's spot. Ervin is a righty while Cincinnati's primary other outfielders are lefties, aiding Ervin's chances at seeing playing time, at least against southpaws, who he torched last season. Look for him to see time at all three outfield spots and possibly at DH. 

Billy Hamilton, Giants: Even if the Giants sign Yasiel Puig, as has been rumored, Hamilton has a decent shot at opening the season as the team's starting center fielder. If defense matters, Hamilton should get the nod over Jaylin Davis and Mauricio Dubon, both are whom are just learning how to man center field. You know what you get out of Hamilton, who still has elite speed, but whose batting average declined by at least 10 points each of the last three seasons to an anemic .218 last year.  

Sam Hilliard/Matt Kemp/Raimel Tapia, Rockies: Ian Desmond has opted out of playing this season due to family concerns related to COVID. Hilliard and Tapia, who both were in the left field mix, get a mild bump, as Desmond was only expected to play vs. southpaws. Hilliard entered the spring penciled in for a starting outfield spot in Colorado. Unfortunately, he hit .176 with two home runs, three doubles, 12 strikeouts and two walks in 36 plate appearances this spring, likely costing him that role. Hilliard, a 15th-round pick of Wichita State in 2015, the year he moved from pitching to the outfield, posted a monster line last season at Triple-A Albuquerque with 35 home runs, 101 runs batted in, 22 stolen bases and 109 runs scored in 126 games. He carried that fine performance with him to the majors, notching seven home runs, 13 runs batted in, two stolen bases and 13 runs scored in 27 games with the Rockies. Hilliard may start the year on the bench, creating a buying opportunity in leagues that are drafting when baseball finally resumes. Tapia spent the offseason trying to bulk up, and reportedly came into camp with 15-20 pounds of extra muscle. He put that to good use by hitting .355/.394/.613 across 33 plate appearances in Cactus League action. In terms of pecking order, Tapia is ahead of Hilliard with Kemp, who just signed a minor-league deal with the Rockies possibly taking on the role Desmond was to have against lefties while also potentially seeing time at DH. In addition, Garrett Hampson also should benefit from additional at bats with Desmond not in the mix.

Andrew McCutchen, Phillies: Covered earlier in the season, Cutch benefits from the delayed start to the season. McCutchen signed a three-year, $50 million contract with the Phillies in December of 2018 with the deal including a $15 million team option for 2022. In 59 games, McCutchen hit .256/.378/.457 with 10 homers and 45 runs scored, benefitting from the new home park. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in early June, requiring season-ending surgery. McCutchen likely would have missed the first month of the season, but he will be ready to lead off for the Phillies when the season gets underway. Owners who bought cheap, like Todd Zola, who paid $8 for him in the RotoWire Staff League, will reap the benefits of a "full" campaign from McCutchen.

Tyler O'Neill/Lane Thomas, Cardinals: Thomas was gaining on O'Neil for playing time in left field for the Cardinals when spring training was halted. In addition, Thomas has support within the organization, as we noted in our May 4 update: "Thomas, is highly regarded by organizational instructor Bernard Gilkey and assistant coach Willie McGee. "He's sneaky good. He's one of those guys that when the game's over, they're saying, 'Who was that guy?'," McGee said. "We haven't seen enough of him. But (instructor) Bernard Gilkey has seen a lot of him and 'Gilk' loves him." Both players enter summer camp with a fairly equal shot at earning the job while Dylan Carlson also remains in the mix to receive playing time. The loser of the battle could also see time at DH. 

Nick Senzel, Reds – Senzel, who underwent shoulder surgery back in September, is reportedly 100 percent healthy, which comes as surprise, as he'd been able to appear as a designated hitter before spring training play was paused and wasn't expected to miss much if any time even if the season wasn't delayed. Despite a crowded Reds outfield that includes newly added Shogo Akiyama and Nick Castellanos, Senzel was penciled in as the team's starting center fielder. In addition, though the universal designated hitter should create enough extra at-bats to keep Senzel in the lineup when he is not playing the field. 

Magneuris Sierra, Marlins – Sierra, out of minor-league options and in danger of being released back in March, could be the Marlins' primary pinch-running option this season. The rosters expanding to 30 for the first two weeks of a truncated 2020 campaign has granted Sierra a temporary reprieve, Sierra could become the team's 'designated runner' in extra-inning contests — across three levels in 2019, he swiped 36 bases in 50 attempts. The role is a far cry from what was projected for Sierra, who came to the Marlins as part of the package that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, but a major-league job is a major league job.

Taylor Trammell, Padres: Trammell, who moved from the Reds to Padres last season, saw his prospect status dim slightly as he struggled through a nightmarish campaign. However, he hit .342/.416/.646 with five home runs and a 25:9 K:BB in his final 20 games (mostly the Texas League playoffs), restoring some of his luster. Trammell is part of San Diego's 60-man summer camp roster. As we noted in our recent update, San Diego has a plethora of more experienced outfielders, but if the team deals with injuries or if players like Franchy Cordero or Josh Naylor struggle, Trammell, who has 25-30 steal potential in a full season, could very well make his MLB debut in 2020.