This article is part of our Rounding Third series.
It's often said that the ideal time to ski is after a snow fall, before ice and tracks are formed - often termed, at least as I've heard it, as "fresh powder." When I participated in the RotoWire Online Championship "Beat Jeff Erickson" NFBC draft on Thursday night, I drafted in the fantasy baseball equivalent of fresh powder. Prior to Thursday, there were only three public NFBC drafts since June 1, and only one of those was an Online Championship. So while we still have ADP data from the spring, this sprint season provides a set of unique challenges and many of those ADP data points do not apply.
Here are the full draft results, I drafted sixth in this 12-team league.
There's no third-round reversal, and I wanted to draft as early as possible, so I just set my KDS in order, 1-12. I didn't want to take Mike Trout in the first round due to the uncertainty of how much he'll play. Fortunately, that decision was made for me when Jenny Butler took him at 1.5.
1.6 - Cody Bellinger: I had decided ahead of time that I wanted, in this order, Bellinger, Mookie Betts or Gerrit Cole with this pick. If all three were gone, it would have been a tougher call to pass on Mike Trout, but I had committed to that, and I would have instead gone with either Francisco Lindor or Jacob deGrom. And added bonus for Bellinger is his dual
It's often said that the ideal time to ski is after a snow fall, before ice and tracks are formed - often termed, at least as I've heard it, as "fresh powder." When I participated in the RotoWire Online Championship "Beat Jeff Erickson" NFBC draft on Thursday night, I drafted in the fantasy baseball equivalent of fresh powder. Prior to Thursday, there were only three public NFBC drafts since June 1, and only one of those was an Online Championship. So while we still have ADP data from the spring, this sprint season provides a set of unique challenges and many of those ADP data points do not apply.
Here are the full draft results, I drafted sixth in this 12-team league.
There's no third-round reversal, and I wanted to draft as early as possible, so I just set my KDS in order, 1-12. I didn't want to take Mike Trout in the first round due to the uncertainty of how much he'll play. Fortunately, that decision was made for me when Jenny Butler took him at 1.5.
1.6 - Cody Bellinger: I had decided ahead of time that I wanted, in this order, Bellinger, Mookie Betts or Gerrit Cole with this pick. If all three were gone, it would have been a tougher call to pass on Mike Trout, but I had committed to that, and I would have instead gone with either Francisco Lindor or Jacob deGrom. And added bonus for Bellinger is his dual eligibility – I have a feeling that could come in handy even in a sprint season.
2.7 (19) - Jack Flaherty: It's true that I've been the "Jack Flaherty guy" this draft season, but I actually would have preferred Mike Clevinger here due to the addition of the DH to the NL, but Cloevinger and Justin Verlander both went before Flaherty. My game plan going in was to get an ace in the first two rounds an another by Round 6, and then wait on starters for a while to build my offense. I think I was able to do that.
3.6 (30) - J.D. Martinez: Because Martinez doesn't run much anymore, he tends to fall a couple of slots later than he should. Both Starling Marte and Shane Bieber were considerations here - and in retrospect, Marte might be the better pick given my unwillingness to draft Mallex Smith or other stolen base specialists.
4.7 (43) - J.T. Realmuto: This was a critical inflection point in the draft. I don't often take an early catcher, but I think that Realmuto truly stands out at the position - he hits for average as well as power, and might steal an odd base or two. Moreover, with the DH in the NL, I think he'll tend to play there on his days off from catching. But again, I passed on stolen bases (Jonathan Villar went with the next pick) as well as Bo Bichette, a player I've frequently drafted this season.
5.6 (54) - Lucas Giolito: Giolito's breakout is real - the strikeout rate improvement resulted from a change in his pitch mix, and he ended up with the sixth-best K-BB% among qualified starters in baseball. Add in Yasmani Grandal behind the plate to better frame his pitches and the unbalanced AL Central schedule, and I'm pretty enthusiastic about this pick.
6.7 (67) - Aroldis Chapman: In a shortened season, there's fewer chances to find a closer on the waiver wire, they'll cost more in FAAB when they do emerge, and it might be too late to make a big impact when you do get them. So I vowed to get two solid closers in this draft, acknowledging that it would take an earlier pick. The good thing is that I have some experience timing the closer run in NFBC drafts - and it's epic - and a spot in the middle of the draft, so that not too often I'm that far away from the run. In this case, the run started with Josh Hader at pick 38 (4.2), but the second one didn't happen until 5.5 with Roberto Osuna, who also happens to be my second closer. I decided to wait until this round, hoping to get Liam Hendriks or Kenley Jansen, thinking Chapman would be gone. But both Jansen and Hendriks went earlier in this draft, so in my mind I got a little bit of a windfall - a closer on one of the top two projected teams that's absolutely secure in his role.
7.6 (78) - Manny Machado: I like Machado (and other veterans) better in a short season, and I think he'll be motivated after last year's struggles. A corollary of avoiding players in the first year of a big contract is the possibility that Year 2 is much better. Having dual SS/3B eligibility also doesn't hurt.
8.7 (91) - Ken Giles: The second closer run had begun in earnest, with five more closers gone - Edwin Diaz, Taylor Rogers, Brad Hand, Raisel Iglesias and Nick Anderson, my personal favorite. Again, we all have different closer tiers, but for me this was the end of another tier. I don't mind a few closers in the next tier, but I wanted Giles's skills in a short season, and hope that he doesn't get traded to a team that don't need him in a closer's role. After Giles, three more closers also went in this round - Brandon Workman, Hansel Robles and Craig Kimbrel. With Hector Neris's status for the start of the season, the pool of "safe closers" is that much shallower.
9.6 (102) - Matt Chapman: Having secured my two starters and two closers, it was time to focus on building my offense with a good portion of my next picks. I was thrilled to land Chapman here - I really like to get the last of him, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano and Mike Moustakas.
10.7 (115) - Eddie Rosario: After taking Matt Chapman last round, I was looking for speed, but both Cavan Biggio and Oscar Mercado went immediately before me. It's not that Rosario can't run, but even after his ankle healed this offseason, he's never been a volume runner. But he does a lot of everything else, and I want to emphasize how much I like going back to the well with the Twins' lineup this year, facing 40 games against the AL Central.
11.6 (126) - Tim Anderson: Anderson gives me a little bit of speed to go along with everything else that he provides, even though the White Sox don't always let their players run as much as they could. That could be traded off by better counting stats with their improved lineup.
12.7 (139) - Andrew Benintendi: Here's hoping Ron Roenicke will let his players run like Alex Cora did. I'm also hoping for a bit of a Last Year's Bum bounce back.
13.6 (150) - Kyle Hendricks: This is an old standby for me, and while I have some trepidation about taking on a low-strikeout pitcher in a DH league, some of that is counterbalanced by him pitching in NL Central, and the presumption as a veteran that he'll be able to go deeper into games sooner than younger pitchers.
14.7 (163) - Max Kepler: Is this early for Kepler? It might be, for someone that doesn't run and could be a batting average liability. Obviously, I love the power and the sweet schedule, but seeing Andrew McCutchen go two picks later drew a pang of regret.
15.6 (174) - Mike Minor: I'm encouraged by early reports suggesting that Texas's new ballpark might play as a pitcher's park, and again, his ability to accumulate innings.
16.7 (187) - Kevin Newman: I think Newman's token power is a function of Happy Fun Ball, but he's batting leadoff for the Pirates and should have plenty of chances to run. Moreover, with a .291 xBA, he shouldn't hurt me in batting average or runs.
17.6 (198) - Kyle Tucker: Tucker represents an upside gamble, and he's projected to have a little bit of speed. Playing time is the gamble for Tucker, but I think that he will ultimately play more than Josh Reddick and earn the starting job. With no minor league season, at least there's very little risk of him getting demoted.
18.7 (211) - David Peralta: Peralta is a solid all-around batter that I always seem to draft. He's projected to hit in the middle of a solid Diamondbacks lineup, and should provide a decent batting average.
19.6 (222) - Rich Hill: After seeing reports of Hill going around 125 in some private drafts, I was resigned not to get him, but this seems like a far more reasonable price. The risk for Hill is two-fold - durability and the possibility that he'll be limited over his first few starts.
20.7 (235) - Dylan Bundy: Quietly I did a little bit of a fist pump on this one. Bundy had a 16:1 K:BB in spring training, gets a better ballpark to pitch in to help cure his gopheritis, and potentially a better organization in developing pitchers with the Angels.
21.6 (246) - Seth Lugo: Ratios, K's and a potential early-season aggressive usage pattern should make Lugo easy enough to start the first few weeks of the season.
22.7 (259) - Daniel Murphy: I like that he gets to DH this year. That's his best position. There's a reasonable chance of a good recovery at the plate, too. I picked him over Joey Votto, which hurts because Votto is my favorite player.
23.6 (270) - Shin-Soo Choo: He produces across the board, even adding a little speed. I worry a little bit about him getting more days off due to his age, but he's basically an insurance policy for Kyle Tucker, and a value grab otherwise.
Remaining picks:
24.7 (283) - Yadier Molina
25.6 (294) - Mauricio Dubon
26.7 (307) - Drew Pomeranz
27.6 (318) - J.A. Happ
28.7 (331) - Eric Thames
29.6 (342) - Mike Fiers
30.7 (355) - Spencer Turnbull
Full Roster
C - Realmuto, Molina
1B/3B/CR - Bellinger, Chapman, Murphy
2B/SS/MI - Newman, Machado, Anderson
OF - Martinez, Rosario, Benintendi, Kepler, Tucker
UT - Peralta
Bench hitters - Choo, Dubon, Thames
SP - Flaherty, Giolito, Hendricks, Minor, Hill, Bundy, Happ, Fiers, Turnbull
CL - Chapman, Giles
RP - Lugo, Pomeranz
I like how I executed my pitching plan, mostly avoiding mid-tier NL starters, who I think are going to get hurt more than others realize. I probably could have benefited from drafting a third closer, but as far as weaknesses go, I can handle that. On the hitting side, my average and counting stats appear to be strong, but (as almost seemingly always) I'm light on speed. I may have to turn to Dubon more than I'd planned in an effort to catch up a little there. The good news is that if he or a free agent emerges with the combination of playing time and speed potential, it won't take that many steals to make up the category deficiency.
