AL FAAB Factor: Mother's Day Update

Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season held in suspended animation like a bug in amber, there are no FAAB or waiver periods to worry about. At least I hope not – there's probably a couple of leagues out there that drafted early and might be plowing ahead anyway, but spending any portion of your budget right now would just be silly, when things as fundamental as the number of games that will be played and the size of big-league rosters are still up in the air.

That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until the season is finally ready to begin, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period.

Starting Pitcher

Dylan Cease, White Sox: The ascent of Lucas Giolito and the presence of Michael Kopech have made Cease something of a forgotten man in the White Sox rotation. Of course, his own control issues likely contribute to him being an afterthought as well. The 24-year-old has the stuff to be a future ace, but until he learns to harness it better, he's a ratio risk for fantasy purposes. Cease knows what he needs to fix, though, and has been working to make his mechanics a little more direct to home plate. Pitching coach Don Cooper is also one of the best in the business, and as Giolito's own turnaround highlights, if anyone can unlock Cease's potential, it's Cooper. If Kopech is recovered enough by Opening Day, it also wouldn't be a surprise is Cease filled the sixth starter role in Chicago, with Gio Gonzales handling the No. 5 spot – a role that might better suit the youngster at this stage of his development.

Collin McHugh, Red Sox: After signing late in the spring with Boston, McHugh was going to need some time to complete his recovery from last year's elbow surgery, and he's now gotten it with the delayed start to the season. The veteran right-hander last handled a full workload in 2016, bouncing between starting, relieving and the injured list since then, but in a shortened campaign that won't be an issue. McHugh should be able to give Boston some stability behind Eduardo Rodriguez, stability the team needs with Chris Sale out until 2021, but don't expect McHugh to post the elite numbers he did in the Houston bullpen.

First Base

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: Miggy is now 37 years old and no longer close to a first-round fantasy pick, having failed to top a .400 SLG in two of the last three seasons. Really, he's just hanging on until he can smack the 23 more homers he needs for 500 – although the $30 million he gets every year through at least 2023 offers a pretty compelling reason for him to keep playing, too. We got another round of "Cabrera has gotten in better shape" stories this spring, but he's apparently feeling spry enough that he wants to see semi-regular action in the field again rather than being stuck at DH. C.J. Cron is the new starting first baseman, so how often that actually happens is a big question, but if Cabrera can handle defensive duties it can only help Detroit's lineup flexibility in a compacted schedule, and he might just hang onto 1B eligibility into next season. Does he have 23 more home runs left in his bat? It won't cost too much to find out.

Second Base

Vimael Machin, Athletics: One wrinkle I haven't taken a look at yet is the impact a shortened schedule with expanded rosters might have on Rule 5 picks. We're already long past the point when guys who didn't quite make the cut for a 26-man roster would have been offered back to their original clubs, so you have to assume guys like Machin are going to stick around for the entirety of the 2020 campaign, however long it is. Will that cover the usual service-time obligation attached to Rule 5 picks? That's something the league and union will have to work out at a later date, but in the meantime, Machin will almost certainly open the year on Oakland's bench in a utility role, and the unsettled situation at second base does give him a path to regular at-bats, albeit maybe only if Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo and Tony Kemp all falter. Machin's main skill is his plate discipline, but he might swipe an occasional base as well, giving him some possible value in AL-only formats. Other Rule 5 picks who seem like roster locks at this point – infielder Jonathan Arauz of the Red Sox, and pitchers Rony Garcia of the Tigers, Stephen Woods of the Royals and Yohan Ramirez of the Mariners. Machin appears to be the most likely of the group to become a fantasy asset, however.

Shortstop

Santiago Espinal, Blue Jays: The 25-year-old was already optioned to Triple-A on paper, but he's the Jays' best option at shortstop after Bo Bichette, and if the club decides it needs a real backup at the position rather than hoping Brandon Drury or Joe Panik aren't too big a defensive liability, Espinal will get the call. The intriguing thing about him is that he might actually be an asset with the bat, as well. A bit of a late bloomer in the Red Sox system, he was picked up in the Steve Pearce deal in 2018 and lit it up this spring with seven extra-base hits (three doubles, a triple and three homers) in 24 at-bats. He's almost certainly not going to hit like that in the majors, and Bichette's presence won't give him much chance to show he can anyway, but if he does prove to be competent at the plate it could eventually prompt a lineup shuffle that moves Cavan Biggio to the outfield. In the short term, though, Espinal's just a stash option in deep formats.

Outfield

Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers: Joey Gallo recently took some batting practice in the Rangers' new home park and reported that it seemed to play very deep in center field. That's not much of an issue for a guy like Gallo, who can launch the ball 450 feet at will, but it could have a big impact on the fortunes of some of his teammates, and Choo is at the top of that list. The 37-year-old has clocked at least 20 homers in four of the last five seasons, only missing in 2016 due to injury, but a look at his spray chart from last year shows that the largest grouping essentially went out to center field – he had eight pull shots to right field, five homers the other way to left, one squib shot down the left-field line, and nine blasts to center or right-center (with the 24th being right on the border between right-center and true right field). A veteran like Choo might well be able to adjust to his new environment, but given his age and 2019 hitting profile, it's possible his power numbers take a sudden tumble. Every year there are "safe" older hitters who seem like good value and fall into your lap below their ADP, and who turn out to be poison pills for your roster. There might now be reason to worry Choo is going to be one of them.

Aaron Hicks, Yankees: The current potential plan being floated out by MLB could see the season begin some time in mid-July – in other words, right around when the All-Star game was originally supposed to happen. That would put Hicks on target for the original timeline he had to recover from his Tommy John surgery, making him a possible candidate for the Opening Day lineup. He's currently throwing long toss and hitting from both sides of the plate, albeit not against anything harder than a softly tossed ball, and the center fielder appears to be on pace in his recovery. The Yankees' outfield, and roster in general, is crowded, but a healthy Hicks is still their defensive option in center without being a liability at the plate, and if he's ready it's hard to imagine someone like Mike Tauchman getting playing time ahead of him.

Alex Verdugo, Red Sox: Boston has to be relieved that the headliner in the Mookie Betts deal might be in their Opening Day lineup after all. Verdugo says he's fully recovered from the stress fracture in his back that scrapped his spring, and he remains the top candidate to start in right field, pushing Kevin Pillar into the fourth-outfielder role he's better suited for. Verdugo may not have Betts' upside, but his hit tool and developing power stroke still mark him as a potentially strong fantasy asset. 

Designated Hitter

Miguel Andujar, Yankees: The final player to declare himself fit and ready for the season is Andujar, who's reported no issues with his shoulder while working out at the Yankees' spring complex in Florida. The 25-year-old lost basically all of last season to the injury, but his 2018 numbers are still very enticing. The big question is where he'll be able to find playing time. If Hicks is healthy, Giancarlo Stanton is at DH on most days. Gio Urshela hasn't done anything yet to lose his grip on the third-base job, and he's a better defender anyway. And the team already has plenty of options at first base. Andujar could be stuck in a kind of super-sub role, filling in at DH and the infield corners when someone else needs a breather, and while that kind of player could see more action than expected in a compacted schedule, it's still not ideal. The best route for Andujar to become a fantasy star again likely lies via a trade.