This article is part of our AL FAAB Factor series.
Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season held in suspended animation like a bug in amber, there are no FAAB or waiver periods to worry about. At least I hope not – there's probably a couple of leagues out there that drafted early and might be plowing ahead anyway, but spending any portion of your budget right now would just be silly, when things as fundamental as the number of games that will be played and the size of big-league rosters are still up in the air.
That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until the season is finally ready to begin, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period.
Starting Pitcher
J.A. Happ, Yankees: Happ is kind of the forgotten man in the Yankees' rotation, and the veteran southpaw was one of the pitchers hurt worst in 2019 by the happy fun ball – he posted a 1.90 HR/9 that was more than half a homer per nine higher than the year before. His struggles were telegraphed last spring, though, when six long balls in 11.1 innings led to a 7.94 ERA. It's therefore
Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season held in suspended animation like a bug in amber, there are no FAAB or waiver periods to worry about. At least I hope not – there's probably a couple of leagues out there that drafted early and might be plowing ahead anyway, but spending any portion of your budget right now would just be silly, when things as fundamental as the number of games that will be played and the size of big-league rosters are still up in the air.
That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until the season is finally ready to begin, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period.
Starting Pitcher
J.A. Happ, Yankees: Happ is kind of the forgotten man in the Yankees' rotation, and the veteran southpaw was one of the pitchers hurt worst in 2019 by the happy fun ball – he posted a 1.90 HR/9 that was more than half a homer per nine higher than the year before. His struggles were telegraphed last spring, though, when six long balls in 11.1 innings led to a 7.94 ERA. It's therefore somewhat encouraging that he clocked a 1.38 ERA this March before the Grapefruit League schedule was suspended and served up only one homer in 13 IP, along with a dominant 16:1 K:BB. Happ's turned his career around before, notably in 2015, and the 37-year-old might have one more spurt of success left in him. In shallow leagues where he's been dismissed as just another aging scrub on his way out of the league on the heels of a genuinely awful campaign, he might prove to be a solid value.
Casey Mize, Tigers: While this note is prompted by a specific news item about Mize, the general sentiment could apply just as well to his rotation-mates Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal, and well as other young arms like Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera of the Marlins, Logan Gilbert of the Mariners, Nate Pearson of the Blue Jays etc. In a normal season, all of these prospects would have begun the campaign in the high minors as their respective organizations have deemed them not quite ready for the majors, and weren't expected to compete for a playoff spot and thus had no incentive to start their service clocks. What happens, however, if MLB's eventual plan for 2020 involves major-league games, but no minor-league games? Scenarios like playing games solely in Arizona, or spring training parks, in order to keep players isolated wouldn't leave room for a minor-league schedule to be played under far less controlled conditions. Suddenly, the only way those prized hurlers are going to be able to get in competitive innings is in the big leagues. Especially in the cases of players like Pearson and Sanchez, who already don't have a lot of career reps under their belt due to injuries in prior years, having them go yet another season without really getting stretched out and pushed might seem like an untenable outcome for their clubs. With rosters expanded beyond 26 spots, the best solution might be to use that top prospect in a sixth starter/swing man role initially, where they can get in work under the close supervision of the coaching staff rather than being left in limbo throwing simulated games somewhere. And given the ceiling of every one of those prospects, a big-league job could soon turn into a big-league rotation spot if they prove themselves up to the task, because it's not like those teams have a lot of pitching depth standing in their way. In redraft leagues that are planning to draft or get rolling before MLB announces its path forward, top prospect arms on rebuilding teams could become the ultimate high-risk/high-reward stashes.
First Base
Daniel Vogelbach, Mariners: The 27-year-old slugger drew some praise this week from Seattle hitting coach Tim Laker for his efforts this spring to improve his contact rate. Like so many guys before him, Vogelbach's power can make a difference, if only he can make enough contact to get to it in games. Through his first 704 big-league plate appearances, his ISO (.208) is actually higher than his batting average (.205). That's, uhh, not ideal, even in an era where batting average is devalued. He did whiff nine times in 36 PAs this spring, so whatever progress Laker thought he was making didn't exactly show up in his stat line, but if Vogelbach can get his baseline BA up to even .240 or so, he becomes a much more appealing fantasy option. His next season could be his last chance to establish himself as a regular part of the M's lineup, as well – Evan White is about to take over at first base, and the club has a host of outfielders they'll be able to rotate through the DH slot in a year or two – so Vogelbach has every incentive to take another step forward in his development.
