AL FAAB Factor: Mid-April Update

Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season held in suspended animation like a bug in amber, there are no FAAB or waiver periods to worry about. At least I hope not – there's probably a couple of leagues out there that drafted early and might be plowing ahead anyway, but spending any portion of your budget right now would just be silly, when things as fundamental as the number of games that will be played and the size of big-league rosters are still up in the air.

That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until the season is finally ready to begin, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period.

Starting Pitcher

Justin Dunn, Mariners: Seattle's rotation is patchwork at best, and befitting a club in rebuild mode. Beyond "ace" Marco Gonzales, who would be better suited as a mid-rotation guy on a contender, there are a bunch of guys either trying to establish themselves in the majors, and a bunch of guys trying to revive their careers. Dunn belongs in the first bucket. One of the other prospects involved in the Jarred Kelenic deal with the Mets, the 24-year-old posted strong numbers at Double-A last year but struggled to find the plate in a brief taste of big-league action, and it's his command that's going to determine whether he makes it as a starter in the majors. Expanded rosters will likely open the door for him to begin the regular season as a sixth starter or swing man, and in a rotation this unsettled, that's a role that could have some value. At this stage of his career Dunn is a ratio risk, but he could provide solid strikeout numbers.

Kendall Graveman, Mariners: While Dunn is one of the "trying to establish themselves" pitchers for the M's, Graveman is one of the "trying to revive their careers" guys. The former Oakland hurler is coming back from Tommy John surgery performed in May 2018, but for the three seasons before that he was a fairly effective back-end starter when healthy, delivering a 4.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across 71 starts. The 29-year-old employs a sinker-heavy approach which limits his strikeouts and fantasy appeal, but in deeper leagues he still has some value. He also might have a smidge more upside than his basic profile suggests. Graveman was touching 96 mph this spring, and during his time with the A's he went one more than one hot streak before various arm injuries undercut his progress. He's the kind of pitcher who provides useful staff depth when he's locked in, and that you shouldn't worry about dropping when it looks like he's about to fall back to earth.

Nate Pearson, Blue Jays: While a number of injured players are seeing their fantasy value rise due to the layoff, as they're more likely to avoid missing significant time, the same can't be said for some top prospects. Pearson appears to be trapped in a situation where his organization believes he needs just a little more minor-league seasoning before he gets the call, and every day that passes without baseball is another day he can't get that additional seasoning. His dazzling performance in Grapefruit League action likely landed him on some reserve lists even in shallow mixed formats, but it's entirely possible the 23-year-old flamethrower doesn't make his debut until 2021 if he doesn't get much of a chance to prove to the Jays he's ready. Of course, if Toronto reverses course with him and decides to give him a rotation spot, or he simply tears through the International League for a few weeks once the season begins, he could still prove to have significant value in 2020. Just be aware that his realistic floor for value in re-draft formats is zero.

Taijuan Walker, Mariners: Let's round out this look at the back of the M's rotation with their biggest reclamation project. Walker was, once upon a time, Seattle's top pitching prospect, a phenom expected to slot in as the franchise's second ace behind Felix Hernandez. Injuries and inconsistency (and, frankly, poor coaching) derailed his development though, and Walker was eventually sent packing to Arizona, where he had the best season of his career in 2017. He's thrown only 14 innings since, as forearm trouble and eventually Tommy John surgery put him on the shelf. The Mariners brought him along slowly this spring, but he once again flashed some upside just as play was suspended, showing his old mid-90s velocity and using a new spike curve to whiff Christian Yelich. Whether Walker can finally become something close to the pitcher he was projected to be eight or nine years ago remains to be seen, but he's still only 27 years old, so there's still time for him to carve out a career. If your league scores narrative points, he'll be a first-round pick if he has any kind of revival, but even in regular formats the potential ROI is impressive given his dirt-cheap acquisition cost.

Relief Pitcher

Jordan Romano, Blue Jays: Toronto was supposed to trade Ken Giles last year, but his elbow got sore at exactly the wrong time and they couldn't find anyone to give them a return they liked despite his strong numbers. Don't expect the Jays front office to make the same mistake twice – if Giles is humming again, they'll move him. The bullpen behind him is fairly lackluster, as the top setup men are projected to be retreads Anthony Bass and Rafael Dolis, but the one relief arm with some intrigue who could emerge as a late-inning option, and eventual new closer, is Romero. The 26-year-old posted fantastic strikeout numbers at Triple-A on the back of his fastball-slider combo and fanned 21 batters in 15.1 innings in his first taste of the majors, albeit with an uncharacteristically elevated walk rate. Once he settles down and settles in, he could quickly push his way into a key role, and establish himself as Giles' heir apparent.

Catcher

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers: With rosters expected to expand beyond 26 players for at least some portion of the season once it begins, utility players who are serviceable third catchers seem almost assured of roster spots – and from a fantasy perspective, a guy who qualifies at catcher but has a bat that's better than catcher quality, and sees more playing time than a typical backup backstop, is almost the ideal No. 2. Kiner-Falefa leads that list, although the Rangers like him enough that he would probably have been in the majors even on a 26-man roster. IKF only has a .659 OPS through his first 618 big-league plate appearances, but he had a big spring thanks to a tweaked batting stance, and the team could have plenty of at-bats for him in an infield that has no reliable starters beyond Elvis Andrus.

Garrett Stubbs, Astros: Unlike Kiner-Falefa, Stubbs wasn't going to land a spot on the 26-man roster, and on paper he's already been sent back to the minors. On a 29-man roster, though, the 26-year-old could find a home as the Astros continue their experiment of trying to find ways to get his bat into play. Stubbs saw nearly as much time in left field as he did behind the plate during his cup of coffee in Houston last year, and the organization even gave him some looks at second base at Triple-A in 2019. He won't be the second coming of Craig Biggio, but Stubbs could deliver some nice value.

First Base

Austin Nola, Mariners: While other clubs look for utility players who can be No. 3 catchers, Seattle has one as their No. 2, which seems about par for the course for them. Nola won't have catcher eligibility to begin the year in most leagues, but if you can stash him on your bench he could gain it fairly quickly once the season begins, and the 30-year-old showed a solid stick as a rookie in 2019. There isn't exactly a lot of upside here – last year's performance is probably about the best you can expect – but if he eventually slots in as your No. 2 catcher, you could do a lot worse.

Rowdy Tellez, Blue Jays: Tellez wasn't even guaranteed a spot on the 26-man roster had the season begun on schedule, but his outlook seems a lot brighter now. Yes, he put in good work this offseason and improved his fitness and tweaked his swing and all that positive stuff, but more importantly, Travis Shaw's performance in camp did not make it seem like his nightmarish 2019 was a fluke. Shaw's .214/.313/.464 spring line came with 15 strikeouts in 32 plate appearances, and if he can't make even semi-consistent contact, the Jays don't have much invested in him and can easily cut him loose, turning the first base job over to Tellez. The 25-year-old had his own contact issues last year, but the raw power is legit and he'd be a 30-homer threat over a full campaign.

Third Base

Abraham Toro, Astros: The young switch hitter is still flying under the radar in most drafts, but Toro was looking good to claim the last spot on the bench when spring training was suspended, and Houston hitting prospects have a pretty good track record over the last few years. He's basically a younger version of Yuli Gurriel when it comes to his likely fantasy upside, but with Gurriel now 35, it's not hard to imagine a scenario where the veteran craters after his career-best 2019 and Toro takes the reins at first base instead. He's a better keeper or dynasty stash than re-draft asset, but he could still deliver some value in 2020.

Outfield

Jo Adell, Angels: Adell is effectively the hitting version of Nate Pearson. He's probably ready for the majors, but his team isn't convinced, and the delayed start to the season gives him a much narrower window in which to change the Angels' mind. He remains a premium dynasty asset, but GMs in redraft leagues looking at him as an upside bench stash may need to re-consider the chances he becomes a wasted pick in 2020.

Stephen Piscotty, Athletics: It's an even-numbered year, so Piscotty is probably due for another campaign in which he delivers a solid batting average and power numbers. That wasn't going to happen had the season started in March, as the 29-year-old was still recovering from an intercostal strain that scrubbed his spring training, but the layoff has given him a chance to be ready to go when Opening Day finally rolls around, and he's now swinging a bat pain-free. If the lingering injury allows him to come at a discount, so much the better, but don't expect a huge breakout. Piscotty is what he is, and even at his best he's only been OK.

Taylor Ward, Angels: Ward is another utility guy with some catching chops, but his defense has been bad no matter where the Angels have tried him, and he's struggled against big-league pitching. He's posted mammoth numbers for Triple-A Salt Lake, though – even accounting for a favorable home park, a career .323/.432/.568 line with 35 homers and 21 steals in 166 PCL games is impressive – and while he might just be a Quad-A guy, that offensive upside is hard to ignore if he does find a way to qualify at catcher. In what's probably going to be a chaotic season, seeing things finally click for Ward at the plate in the majors wouldn't really be all that surprising.