This article is part of our Baseball Draft Kit series.
Even the best executed draft day plans can succumb to failed ligaments, strained muscles and fractured bones. Injuries are a constant and inevitable aspect of fantasy baseball and can make or break a season, regardless of format. While preventing injuries is impossible, the prudent fantasy owner can look to mitigate overall injury risk by avoiding players predisposed to injury and individuals with underlying areas of concern. Identifying which players are destined for the injured list can prove difficult so let's take a look at several players that could rise or fall on draft day due to injury concerns.
Corey Kluber, SP, Rangers
The two-time Cy Young winner spent the majority of his final season in Cleveland on the shelf due to a pair of injuries. Kluber's problems began in May when he was struck by 102-mph line drive in the right forearm. The impact caused a non-displaced fracture in the area that ultimately sidelined him for over three months. He then suffered an oblique strain during his rehab assignment that eventually ended his season. Now the veteran right-hander will look to bounce back with the Rangers after an offseason trade landed him in Texas. The arm should be a non-factor moving forward as bone tissue generally heals well and is capable of returning to its pre-injury strength. The oblique strain should also be fully healed after a lengthy offseason, giving Kluber a chance to position himself as Texas' Opening Day starter. He's not the elite player he was just
Even the best executed draft day plans can succumb to failed ligaments, strained muscles and fractured bones. Injuries are a constant and inevitable aspect of fantasy baseball and can make or break a season, regardless of format. While preventing injuries is impossible, the prudent fantasy owner can look to mitigate overall injury risk by avoiding players predisposed to injury and individuals with underlying areas of concern. Identifying which players are destined for the injured list can prove difficult so let's take a look at several players that could rise or fall on draft day due to injury concerns.
Corey Kluber, SP, Rangers
The two-time Cy Young winner spent the majority of his final season in Cleveland on the shelf due to a pair of injuries. Kluber's problems began in May when he was struck by 102-mph line drive in the right forearm. The impact caused a non-displaced fracture in the area that ultimately sidelined him for over three months. He then suffered an oblique strain during his rehab assignment that eventually ended his season. Now the veteran right-hander will look to bounce back with the Rangers after an offseason trade landed him in Texas. The arm should be a non-factor moving forward as bone tissue generally heals well and is capable of returning to its pre-injury strength. The oblique strain should also be fully healed after a lengthy offseason, giving Kluber a chance to position himself as Texas' Opening Day starter. He's not the elite player he was just a few seasons ago but he still has plenty of fantasy appeal. Feel a free to take a flier on Kluber if the lingering injury concerns cause him to slip on draft day.
Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Royals
The Kansas City infielder collected the second-highest stolen base total in 2019 despite missing a sizable portion of the season with recurrent shoulder problems. Mondesi initially subluxed, or partially dislocated, his left shoulder in July before dislocating the joint again in September. The impact of these incidences left Mondesi with damage to his labrum, a brocartilaginous ring that helps stabilize the ball-and-socket joint of the shoulder. Unfortunately, the labrum is vulnerable to tearing in a variety of patterns from an assortment of directions. Regardless of the nature of the tear, a torn labrum can be very painful and often results in chronic instability of the shoulder. However, surgery can help fortify the damage. Mondesi opted to go this route and underwent a labral repair in late September.
Recovery for Mondesi was set at five-to-six months, putting his availability for Opening Day in question. Unfortunately, the track record for players coming off the procedure isn't exactly promising. Multiple position players including Matt Kemp, Gregory Polanco and Michael Brantley struggled in their initial season following a labral repair and reported additional problems linked to the shoulder. Mondesi shouldn't be quite as impacted as the aforementioned players were since his value comes more from his legs than his ability to put up power-based stats. However, you have to first get on base before you can steal them and the speedster will enter the season with a fair amount of risk.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels
The two-way phenom should see his fantasy value trend upward as he returns to the mound for the first time in nearly two years. Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery in October of 2018 and spent last season as a designated hitter while his elbow recovered. Another injury, this time to his knee, prematurely ended his 2019 campaign. Ohtani required surgery to fix a bipartite patella, a condition that occurs when the kneecap fails to fuse during development. Fortunately, the success rate for the procedure is high and Ohtani successfully completed the rehab protocol for his knee and was cleared to return to the mound in late November.
Ohtani's abilities on both sides of the ball make him a unique fantasy weapon and an interesting case study for how his recovery will progress. However, the uncommon situation mixed with his checkered injury history makes him a precarious investment. Prospective fantasy owners interested primarily in his pitching will want to feel confident in the other members of their staff before rolling the dice on Ohtani.
Salvador Perez, C, Royals
Normally the surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), better known as Tommy John surgery, is linked to pitchers. However, the Kansas City catcher missed the entire 2019 season after needing the procedure in March. The former World Series MVP has spent the last nine months rehabbing and is expected to be an active participant in spring training. The limited number of big-league catchers that have required Tommy John, including Matt Wieters and Travis d'Arnaud, have not fared well upon their return, failing to return to their pre-injury level of production. The Royals plan to lighten the load placed on Perez's elbow by giving him time at first base, and the move could prove beneficial to his health and garner him extra positional eligibility for fantasy purposes. Despite any lingering health concerns, Perez remains a top-10 option at catcher with growing flexibility.
Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox
Questions about Sale's long-term durability followed him into the 2019 season after shoulder tendinitis limited him to 29 innings pitched in the second half of the 2018 campaign. The concerns seemed warranted in the early portion of the year as Sale struggled to a 0-5 record and a bloated 6.30 ERA. He rebounded nicely after the rocky start but finished the season with just 13 quality starts to go with a career-low 4.40 ERA and a 6-11 record. To make things worse, inflammation in his throwing elbow prevented him from finishing the year and the injury concerns accompanied him into a second straight offseason. Surgery was not deemed necessary for the injury though Sale did receive a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection in the area. He was cleared to resume throwing in early December but it seems likely Boston will once again closely monitor his level of participation in the spring.
It's never encouraging to see a player suffer shoulder and elbow injuries in back-to-back seasons as the two joints are closely linked. A weakness in one area can result in increased stress on the other, leaving the arm susceptible to serious injury. Furthermore, Sale's injury profile is only further elevated when you consider his sizable career workload, making him a risky selection on draft day. He maintains his usual upside but it may be wise to let someone else assume that risk.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees
The hard-hitting Yankees outfielder donned the pinstripes for just 18 regular season games in 2019. Stanton, a talented player with a proclivity for injury, added several more ailments to his lengthy list of injuries that now includes broken bones, multiple lower- and upper-extremity strains and two noteworthy knee problems. Last year's issues began with a biceps strain that cascaded into shoulder problems. He then strained his calf before spraining the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) in his right knee.
Stanton's lower-extremity issues raise the biggest red flags. He's long battled hamstring injuries on both sides and has missed time with groin and quadriceps strains as well. Each of these muscle groups is part of a model known as the kinetic chain. If a breakdown appears along the extremity, following an injury or weakness of some magnitude, the integrity and functionality of the entire chain can be compromised. The number of injuries Stanton has sustained, along with the idea that previous injury is a strong indicator of future injury, suggests the slugger remains at risk for future issues.
Stanton's knee is also a concern following his PCL injury last year. While it isn't as notorious as its counterpart the ACL, the PCL is the stronger of the two ligaments and is critical in knee stability and serves as the central axis for knee rotation. Any structural damage to the PCL can leave the joint unstable. Additionally, studies have shown individuals who suffer PCL-related injuries become more vulnerable to future meniscus issues and long-term problems like arthritis. This is particularly concerning for Stanton, who underwent surgery for a cartilage-related issue on the same knee during the 2012 season.
Combine these factors with similar concerns about the muscles in his upper extremity and it's easy to see why investing in Stanton is a calculated gamble. The former National League MVP has proven he is capable of putting up big numbers in an explosive offense but availability remains a skill that has eluded Stanton in three of the last five seasons.
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres
The 20-year-old shortstop dazzled in his 84 games played, displaying a remarkable blend of power and speed. A pair of injuries prevented him from making an even bigger impact. Tatis' initial injury was linked to his hamstring, the muscle group located on the back of the upper leg. He missed just over four weeks recovering, before a lower-back strain ended his season in mid-August. The two injuries may appear like separate issues but there is a chance the two are linked. The hamstrings are directly connected with the lower back and have been known to contribute to lower-back pain if weak or tight. For Tatis to move past both issues, he would need to directly address both areas. He's had ample time to rest and recuperate and will enter a new season with a chance to build on his rookie campaign. Any risk associated with the chance of re-injury is worth the potential upside for the budding superstar. Don't let him slip on draft day.
Mike Trout, OF, Angels
Trout picked up American League MVP honors for the third time in his career despite suffering a season-ending foot injury in early September. Trout underwent surgery to remove a neuroma in his right foot.
A neuroma is a growth that develops in the sheath around a nerve. Neuromas are often benign but cause significant pain and burning at the injury site. Trout developed a Morton's neuroma, a very specific type of neuroma that appears between the distal ends of the third and fourth metatarsals. These bones help bridge the tarsals of the midfoot and the toes but are susceptible to neuroma development due to the convergence of several nerve branches. A debridement procedure was performed to remove the mass and Trout was expected to resume full baseball activities in the offseason. There is a small risk of recurrence with a Morton's neuroma but it won't be enough to affect Trout's acquisition cost. He should remain one of the top options on all draft boards.
Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers
While Trout was recovering from foot surgery, the 2018 National League MVP was also sidelined by injury. Yelich missed the final 18 games of the season after fracturing his right patella. Fortunately, surgery was not needed to mend the injury that occurred when Yelich fouled a ball of the bone. Instead the Brewers opted for a conservative approach, slowly progressing Yelich through recovery in the offseason. The outfielder focused on strengthening the muscles around the joint and should enter spring training with full clearance to resume all baseball-related activities. As mentioned with Kluber, bone is often a resilient tissue and should be a non-issue moving forward. Don't hesitate to draft Yelich in the first round of all formats.
This article appears in the 2020 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.
