The Z Files: The Two-Headed Monster

Some say two heads are better than one. For the last few years, Derek VanRiper and I have put that to the test, rather unsuccessfully. We hope to flip the script in the 2020 Premature Edraftulation League, a National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) satellite league commencing on the last day of the MLB season.

This draft was a little different. We hammered out the first 10 picks in the usual manner – in our respective offices. With First Pitch Arizona moved up a couple weeks to accommodate the earlier Arizona Fall League schedule, Derek and I were together for most of the next 20 or so picks, though distracted by some combination of ballgames, friends, seminars, and for the younger, non-diabetic half of the duo, beer. Even so, I'm personally happier with this draft than any since we formed Team Industry Scum.

Drafting with a partner is tough. Some only draft in that manner while others only fly solo. I've had partners over the years, teaming with the late Lawr Michaels in the Fantasy Sports Trade Association league, winning in 2014. However, DVR and I have yet to crack the code as a team. Hopefully this season will be the breakthrough.

I think the reason I like this squad more than others is we put off pitching after drafting Max Scherzer the previous two seasons. There's nothing wrong with starting a team with Scherzer, no regrets on that account, but I was pleased knowing the first pick would be a batter. Here's the club, with some comments. Sorry, but we're only able to divulge our own picks, though the first six rounds are posted on the NFBC forum. The draft round is in parentheses.

• C: Omar Narvaez (18)
• C: Mike Zunino (29)
• 1B: Michael Chavis (14)
• 3B: Anthony Rendon (3)
• MI: Yoan Moncada (4)
• 2B: Kolten Wong (15)
• SS: Carlos Correa (6)
• MI: Corey Seager (11)
• OF: Christian Yelich (1)
• OF: J.D. Martinez (2)
• OF: Byron Buxton (12)
• OF: Austin Riley (17)
• OF: Trent Grisham (20)
• UT: Nelson Cruz (8)
• SP: Chris Paddack (5)
• SP: Sonny Gray (7)
• SP: Brandon Woodruff (9)
• SP: Zac Gallen (10)
• SP: Ryan Yarbrough (16)
• SP: Adrian Houser (19)
• SP: Tony Gonsolin (21)
• SP: Jose Urquidy (22)
• CL: Hansel Robles (13)
• RES: Josh Rojas
• RES: Jake Fraley
• RES: MacKenzie Gore
• RES: Rowdy Tellez
• RES: Dominic Smith
• RES: Tyler Mahle
• RES: TBD

OBSERVATIONS

The paucity of saves was by design, though not the plan heading in. Unless one of us was a really good actor, we were in lockstep that no closer was worth an earlier investment at the price. With no overall component to the league, there isn't pressure to leave the draft with a pair of closers. To be honest, with the current save landscape, leaving with one is viable since the number of saves needed to compete is down, as MLB managers are distributing saves among more relievers, and I don't see that changing. The one back-end guy we took isn't even a sure thing, though Robles was getting it done for the Angels down the stretch.

Scum may have been aggressive on Yoan Moncada, but it's justified. The early market has Moncada priced a round or two later, but I am less concerned about ADP (average draft position) and more focused on whether I believe the player is worthy of the draft spot. Derek and I both feel Moncada's expectations sync up with where we took him. Back in April, I pegged Moncada as someone in position to benefit from the juiced ball, based on his historical fly ball distance. While the analysis proved prescient, there's some concern MLB will revert to a ball with more drag. Seemingly, this should hurt Moncada, but he displayed growth in other areas, combating the potential loss of a few feet on fly balls. His average exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrels all improved. While a 28 percent strikeout rate is still high, it was a 5 percent improvement over previous seasons. Moncada has yet to take full advantage of his speed, but his stolen base success rate was better and there's latent upside in the category.

Speaking of speed, even with Christian Yelich and Moncada early, we were light heading into the middle rounds. Enter Byron Buxton, a DVR special. That said, where we took Buxton baked in plenty of risk and we both had a couple of speculative plays in the outfield to target later. In retrospect, the only pick I wish we could do over is Kolten Wong, an admitted dart at steals. This isn't to say I don't like Wong; he was exceptional down the stretch and into the playoffs. However, as it turns out there were better options on the board with a couple other speed darts taken a few rounds later.

Pairing J.D. Martinez and Anthony Rendon with Yelich gave us a nice batting average foundation without sacrificing counting stats. This is a huge plus if handled correctly. Drafting a solid staff without an ace is paramount, but there are offensive implications as well. Everyone preaches drafting batting average, then chipping away with high power or speed players who are deficient in average. This is a perfectly viable strategy. Derek and I could do the same, but without giving back as much average. This initiated a cascade effect. If the power stats are high, along with batting average, there's less need to force speed. If you're able to get enough speed with the other batting categories, chasing saves is less integral.

On paper, this is how DVR and I are set up. The production, along with batting average, from our top three is super. Furthermore, we doubled down on this foundation with Moncada, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, all of whom should provide a plus average without ignoring homers, RBI, runs, etc. Guys like Michael Chavis, Austin Riley, Trent Grisham and Mike Zunino will eat into the batting average buffer without completely erasing the category surplus. Even so, we still wanted to add some late-draft speed, hence Josh Rojas and Jake Fraley.

If there's a glaring deficiency, it's multiple eligibility players, compounded by having Nelson Cruz occupy the utility spot. Derek and I are both huge fans of taking the UT-only discount on Cruz. I can't speak for him, but I wish we built more flexibility into the other position hitters. It's not like we are completely devoid with Chavis (1B/2B), Riley (eventually 3B/OF) and Dominic Smith (1B/OF), but that's light in today's landscape. However, there's plenty of time to address this once roles and positions are fleshed out.

After waiting until the fifth round to secure our first pitcher with Chris Paddack, Team Scum left the first 10 rounds with four starters. Though we didn't talk about it, the staff is decidedly National League focused, a good thing especially if the ball remains juiced, but even if it doesn't. The small concern is Sonny Gray, Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser all work in venues positive for runs, but all three have the skills to overcome it while racking up whiffs.

At the aforementioned First Pitch Arizona conference, Zac Gallen was the recipient of the Eno Sarris seal of approval, elevating the Diamondbacks right-hander from sleeper to "so underrated he's overrated" status. DVR and I were both on Gallen before the conference, in fact drafting him before it began. There's a good chance the 10th round will be as late as Gallen goes all drafting season.

There are some initial thoughts. I'm happy to answer questions, so long as they don't pertain to where other players were drafted. Win or lose, we'd like to be invited back to play again next season.