This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's four-game slate is interesting to say the least, as the quality of offense throughout will let us select elite and very good pitchers at reasonable prices. Despite this, we can still find one or two hurlers that are vulnerable enough to stack against.
Pitching Overview
Max Scherzer ($9,700) was absolutely dominant during the regular season, finishing with an ERA below 3.00 for the fifth consecutive year while holding a 35 percent strikeout rate in 27 starts. The Dodgers were one of the top offenses in the league in 2019 by most relevant metrics, but Scherzer handled them fairly well during a start in May, in which he allowed two runs and struck out seven over seven frames. It's worth noting that Scherzer threw a scoreless inning in this series on Friday, but there has been no indication that he will be limited in any significant way as a result.
Zack Greinke ($9,100) is another hurler who finished the year with an ERA under 3.00, but a mediocre 23 percent strikeout rate could hurt his value as the second-most expensive pitcher on the board, as he failed to reach 20 points in six of his last 10 starts prior to the postseason. The Rays grade out as a solidly above average team against right-handed pitching, having notched a strikeout rate of just 23 percent.
Shoulder and lat injuries cost Luis Severino ($8,600) the majority of his 2019 season, but the 25-year-old got back to his old ways in short order upon his return, striking out 17 batters in 12 innings. While Severino allowed very little in the way of opposing offense, his 13 percent walk rate is a bit troubling when we consider that the Twins struck out just 21 percent of the time against right-handed pitching, which was tied for the fourth-lowest mark in the league. It must also be considered that the Yankees possess a 2-0 lead in this series, which may result in an abundance of caution when it comes to how far Severino will be pushed.
Charlie Morton ($8,400) may be facing one of the best teams in the league in the Astros, but we shouldn't forget that the 35-year-old had a terrific regular season, featuring a 30 percent strikeout rate and the ability to get grounders at a 48 percent clip. This is a skill set that plays against nearly any team, though it's worth noting that Morton allowed eight runs over nine innings in his two starts against Houston this year. Still, Morton can be seen as something of a value play, as it's not often we can grab a pitcher of his caliber at this price.
Dakota Hudson ($5,800) represents much more of a traditional value play thanks to the 2.75 ERA he logged in 81.2 innings at home this year. Like most teams on the docket Monday, the Braves don't show many weaknesses offensively, but Hudson's elite groundball rate (57 percent) makes him an intriguing play at this price.
Key Values
Cody Bellinger ($4,900) has yet to get things going in the postseason, but the 24-year-old had a fantastic regular slate, notching a .324 ISO in 156 games. Scherzer was unquestionably dominant all year but did give up a few too many homers to lefty hitters (1.3/9), which could make Bellinger an interesting scarcity play for those not wanting to pick against the former Cy Young Award winner.
Howie Kendrick ($4,300) seems like a no-brainer selection against Rich Hill thanks to the .239 ISO and .430 wOBA he logged against southpaws in 117 at-bats during the regular season. Hill isn't expected to throw more than a few innings as he continues to work his way back from a knee injury, but we can still look to exploit the nine homers he allowed against righty hitters in 44 innings.
Eddie Rosario ($4,000) excelled against right-handed pitching this year, logging a .244 ISO in 409 at-bats. Meanwhile, Severino's inability to find the zone contributed to an xFIP over 4.00 against right-handed hitters.
Kolten Wong ($3,900) doesn't generally garner much attention from fantasy circles, but it should be noted that he logged a .381 wOBA in 199 at-bats after the All-Star break. This puts him in a good position ahead of the matchup against Julio Teheran, who ended the regular season with a stunning 6.12 xFIP against left-handed hitters.
Stacks
Cardinals against Julio Teheran (Braves)
Kolten Wong (2B - $3,900) Tommy Edman (2B/3B - $4,700) Paul DeJong (SS - $4,700)
Teheran's incredibly high walk rate led to his inflated xFIP against lefty hitters, but it must be said that the advanced statistics don't look too pretty against righties either, as evidenced by the 4.67 xFIP he logged in 104 frames.
Nationals against Rich Hill (Dodgers)
Howie Kendrick (1B/2B - $4,300) Kurt Suzuki (C - $3,900) Anthony Rendon (3B - $4,500)
The Nationals are a lineup that was seemingly built to crush left-handed pitching, as even our value play had an ISO of .239 against opposite-handed pitchers. This should make for a nice stack in Washington if Hill cannot figure out how to keep the ball inside the park.
