The Z Files: Second-Half Bullpen and Basepath Observations

There's about one month left in the season, so category management is paramount. A major issue when plotting strategy is knowing what you're working with, as many rosters have changed since, or even before, the trade deadline. Two prime examples are bullpens and team tendencies with regards to the running game. As such, today we're going to look at team bullpens since August 1 and stolen base data since the break.

Having a feel for how a bullpen is faring is important when selecting batters to use in a daily or even weekly format. Some of the ensuing numbers are due to a change in personnel; others are just relievers performing better or worse than previously. Even for an entire team, one month is a small sample in terms of innings, so there is some luck involved as well. Still, these numbers offer a starting point, then it's a matter of determining why the bullpen is performing the way it is and venturing one's best guess what will transpire down the stretch.

For comparison purposes, here is the bullpen data through July 31. Please note the tables are sortable.

Here are the numbers for August through Thursday (Aug. 29):

IMPROVED BULLPENS

Boston Red Sox: Much to the dismay of their fans, the defending world champs did not make any moves at the deadline. The only change was moving Nathan Eovaldi back to the rotation, though he'd pitched well in relief before the transition. The key has been better control and keeping the ball in the yard. The xFIP suggests there's been some luck, but it's reasonable to assume the group isn't the dumpster fire it seemed earlier in the season.

Philadelphia Phillies: Like the Red Sox, the Phillies have done a better job keeping the ball in the yard as well as issuing fewer walks. Oddly, acquisitions Mike Morin and Jared Hughes haven't pitched well; it's been the season-long arms getting it done.

New York Mets: Considering how poor they were the first four months, the Mets couldn't help but to get better. They can thank Jeurys Familia, as Edwin Diaz remains terrible. Seth Lugo has pitched well despite a bloated ERA.

Texas Rangers: This may be a surprise considering Texas traded Chris Martin, but a closer look shows the Rangers have been a bit lucky this month as their xFIP isn't far from that of the initial four months.

St. Louis Cardinals: Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. The Red Sox have the month's lowest ERA, though their xFIP is higher. The Cardinals have the next-best ERA but also reek of good luck with a much higher xFIP.

WORSE BULLPENS

Miami Marlins: The Fish gutted their bullpen, dealing away Nick Anderson and Sergio Romo. Ryne Stanek has a live arm, however nine walks and three homers in 8.2 innings isn't impressing the brass in South Beach.

Kansas City Royals: The Royals dealt away a couple of useful pieces, though their larger issue has been a horrible month from Ian Kennedy and Jacob Barnes, along with the lesser relievers.

Los Angeles Angels: With more teams deploying the opener/primary pitcher tandem, reliever numbers can be skewed. Perhaps filtering by reliever stats from the sixth or seventh inning on would be a better sample. As you likely intuit, the Halos fall victim to some poor bulk relief outings.

Baltimore Orioles: As if enough hasn't gone wrong for the Orioles, their already decrepit relief corps pitched even worse in August.

San Francisco Giants: Remember when the narrative was the Giants should keep the troops together to give Bruce Bochy one more run? Fortunately, even though they kept Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco traded Sam Dyson and Mark Melancon and it shows.

TAKEAWAYS

Admittedly, the study didn't bear monumental results, but you never know until you look. Also, ERA is a poor litmus test. Next time, looking at the skills, or even expected ERA, would be an improvement, Still, other than maybe Boston, there aren't any actionably improved bullpens. On the other end, many suspect relief units are even worse, embellishing the urgency to pick on these teams with batters.

Let's shift attention to the basepaths. Below is a table with stolen base data since the All-Star break, again in sortable form.

OBSERVATIONS

Not only are Trea Turner and Victor Robles running for the Nationals, Juan Soto and Adam Eaton each have six bags. With an 83 percent team success rate, expect skipper Dave Martinez to keep flashing the go sign.

Ronald Acuna is good. His running could be the difference when picking at the front of drafts next season, rendering the exciting sophomore a candidate for first overall. Note Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout and Mookie Betts are all running less than before the break.

Speaking of Betts, last season the Red Sox were among the league leaders in pilfers. They're still scoring runs in bunches but have stopped running over the second half.

While it's great to see Jon Berti with seven steals, why aren't the rest of the Marlins running? It's not like they are waiting for a three-run homer.

Similarly, the Tigers and White Sox should be attempting more steals. As should the Royals. Adalberto Mondesi is obviously hurt, but only four bags from Whit Merrifield is far fewer than expected.

The Cardinals are an intriguing source of stolen bases as they're frequently giving the green light with many taking advantage. Aside from the half dozen courtesy of Tommy Edman, Kolten Wong, Marcell Ozuna and Yairo Munoz all have four swipes, while Dexter Fowler and Harrison Bader have nabbed three.

The Twins aren't built to run, but only three steals is surprising. Byron Buxton's absence obviously is a factor, but still. It would be nice if Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario could be counted on for a handful of bags.

It will be interesting to see what the Blue Jays do the final month. Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette have ample wheels, but a team success rate of just 55 percent could put on the brakes. Hopefully, they'll let the kids learn on the fly, even if it means getting caught a few times. Like any other skill, it takes time to perfect at the major league level.

The fun part about data of this nature is everyone gleans something different. Feel free to share your observations in the comments.