Surprise Top-10 Finishes

On August 1st of 2018, the following players led the league in the 10 standard scoring categories:

• Batting Average: Mookie Betts - .338
• Home Runs: J.D. Martinez - 32
• Runs: Francisco Lindor - 92
• RBI: J.D. Martinez - 89
• Steals: Trea Turner - 26
• Wins: Luis Severino & Max Scherzer - 14
• Strikeouts: Chris Sale - 207
• ERA: Jacob deGrom - 1.82
• WHIP: Chris Sale - 0.87
• Saves: Edwin Diaz - 40

By season's end, the final leaders were:

• Batting Average: Mookie Betts - .346
• Home Runs: Khris Davis - 48
• Runs: Francisco Lindor - 129
• RBI: J.D. Martinez - 130
• Steals: Whit Merrifield - 45
• Wins: Blake Snell - 21
• Strikeouts: Max Scherzer - 300
• ERA: Jacob deGrom - 1.70
• WHIP: Justin Verlander - 0.90
• Saves: Edwin Diaz - 57

Half of the categories saw leadership change hands over the final two months of the season. Davis entered August fourth on the leaderboard with 29 home runs, so his move to the top was not a big climb. Merrifield was sixth in steals when August began, but only three steals behind Turner. Snell was tied for fifth in wins, two wins behind Severino and Scherzer, while Max was just seven strikeouts behind Sale and Verlander was only 0.02 points behind the lanky lefty in WHIP.

The point here is that by season's end, we are not likely to see too many surprises on the final leaderboard. It is highly likely that one of Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout, or Pete Alonso will win the home run title. Jeff McNeil should finish in the top four spots of batting average barring a massive collapse down the stretch. Adalberto Mondesi or Mallex Smith will lead the league in steals, and one of Kirby Yates or Brad Hand will lead the majors in saves.  The names at the top will not surprise us, but I am more interested in looking at guys who are currently not in the top 15 within each category who could sneak into the top 10 by season's end. That kind of gain here in the final third of the season could pay off handsomely for you. Click the headers below to go to our current leaderboards in each category while I offer you a bold prediction in each category.

Batting Average: Yuli Gurriel. He is currently 26th on the list at .294, but is on some kind of heater in July with a .405 batting average this month on the heels of months that went .240, .291, and .270. 

The expected batting average shows he has been here before and he even has a little left in the tank.  The Houston schedule the rest of the way includes a series in Baltimore, a four-game series against Detroit (who likely will not have Matthew Boyd), and nine games against Seattle pitching. 

Home Runs: Trevor Story. 28 of Colorado's final 53 games will be played in Coors Field, where Story has hit 14 of his 22 home runs. 

Story went on a strong hard-hit run on the back half of the past two seasons and has shown recent signs of getting back there in his rolling game average. 

Runs: Jorge Polanco. Polanco has had a cool July with just seven runs compared to the 15 runs scored in April, the 21 scored in May, and the 19 scored in June. His weighted on-base average is on the uptick recently, but that is just half the story.

29 of Minnesota's final 55 games will come against Detroit, Kansas City, or Chicago White Sox pitching. In fact, their final 13 games are against those three teams. The scheduling gods have done Minnesota many favors as they get to close the season out against the bottom half of their division with mostly bad starting pitching and worse bullpens. The softball lineup Minnesota has when fully healthy can do some damage, and Polanco hits in the upper third of it on a nightly basis. 

RBI: Eddie Rosario. I could not ignore this fantasy stack. If I am predicting Polanco to surge the rest of the way in runs, someone has to drive him in. It may be Nelson Cruz, but Rosario is the cleanup hitter in this lineup and the guy in the best position to drive in the runners. He has 66 runs driven in already this season, which is nine outside of the current top ten. That cushy schedule in September is just too tough to overlook.

Steals: Before I predict a name, understand that the person 15th on the list, Tim Anderson, has exactly 15 steals and has missed a considerable amount of time. The category is so depressing this season. Heck, even Terrance Gore has 13 and he barely plays and is currently in Triple-A with the Yankees. So, give me Leury Garcia as a surging speed source the rest of the way. Garcia has 10 steals and is 10 of 14 on the season. His manager allows him to run, and he is in the top 25 for stolen base opportunities. 

Wins: Everyone in the top 18 has at least 10 wins while 11 wins gets you into the top 10. I'm going to go back to that Minnesota well and recommend Kyle Gibson here. He has nine wins and meddling ratios, but that schedule is perfect for picking up wins down the stretch. The offense provides him the support, so he does not have to go out and dominate to get wins as much as he just needs to go five to six innings to permit them time to do their damage. He has only failed to that in four starts this year, so see if you can take advantage of the ratios to pick someone up that could double his win total before the season is out. 

Strikeouts: Zack Wheeler. He may no longer be a Met by the time this article is live, but he is doing an excellent job of helping his trade value of late. He has a 29:5 strikeout to walk ratio over his last four starts which have come against the Yankees, Pirates, and twice against the Phillies. Yes, there was a hiatus between the third and fourth start due to injury, but strikeouts are strikeouts. Wheeler is all certain to be dealt here, and there is a contender in every division that needs a starting pitcher who can miss bats and he is on a positive trend lately:

Saves: 17 saves is what it takes to get to 15th place right now, and 12 closers already have 20 or more saves this season. Ken Giles has 14 and is likely spending his last week in a Toronto uniform. Most years, we would be worried about a contender trading for such a reliever and turning him into a setup man, but this is not most years. Boston, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Anaheim, and Atlanta are all teams that could use this kind of upgrade that have postseason aspirations. Any of these places would open up more save chances than the sub-.500 Jays offer to Giles.

WHIP: Jack Flaherty came into July with a 1.29 WHIP and leaves it with a 1.20 WHIP. He and the Cardinals have been on a roll this month as they have ascended to first place in the division on July 26th. He has allowed two or fewer walks in six of his last eight starts and fewer hits than innings pitched in five of those nine outings. He is throwing his fastball a bit less and his breaking stuff a bit more of late, and we know how good the slider is for him. 

ERA: Mike Fiers dropped his ERA from 3.87 to 3.57 in July with four consecutive quality starts. You have to go back to April 20th to find an outing in which Fiers has allowed more than three earned runs and back to May 13th to find a time where he has not thrown at least six innings. The home ballpark affords him some luxuries that fit his pitching style.