MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The Edwin Encarnacion trade in mid-June may have been too early to count as a deadline move, but Andrew Cashner's move to Boston on Saturday feels like the start of the deadline season. There's nothing terribly exciting about the move – Cashner is far from a franchise-altering player – but it's an incremental improvement that slightly helps a contender's chances of winning a title. While we could be in for a splash or two, most of the trades we're about to see likely will be of a similar variety.

Likewise, there's plenty of room for fantasy owners to take advantage of the deadline to make their own incremental improvements. Anyone who made a small move for Cashner in the last few weeks under the assumption that he was bound to get traded and that anywhere was better than Baltimore can expect to make a small profit. Likewise, owners might be wise to speculate on some of the players whose names have been most heavily involved in rumors, either to make a profit before prices rise or to cut future losses.

Here are just a few examples worth considering:

1. Will the Giants flip franchise icon Madison Bumgarner with just a few months left on his deal? If so, his chances for wins might increase, but we might get to see just how much his pitcher-friendly home park has propped up his numbers despite his declining skills.
2. Will Smith has been the closer most frequently named in trade rumors, with Ken Giles, Felipe Vazquez and Kirby Yates also possibilities, with the latter two only likely to move if their teams fall further out of the race the next two weeks. Any potential trade likely decreases these players' values, and potentially by a considerable amount, as teams like the Dodgers would be happy to acquire another quality bullpen arm despite having no intention of displacing Kenley Jansen. If you can sell any of these guys for full price now, it may be wise to do so.
3. Will the Pirates move anyone from their crowded outfield? If so, that player would almost certainly get to enjoy a more hitter-friendly home park and could see an uptick in playing time. Everyone in that outfield makes for an interesting fantasy trade target due to the prospect of more at-bats should one of their teammates move or a better hitting environment should they themselves move.

With that glimpse into the near future out of the way, let's move on to a look at the recent past.

RISERS

Charlie Morton, SP, Rays: Aging curves certainly don't suggest that a pitcher's ERA should improve for four consecutive seasons in his 30s, but Charlie Morton has done just that, with his 2.35 ERA at age 35 representing easily the best mark of his career. He's only gotten better as the season has progressed, with a 2.10 ERA in his last 10 starts and a 1.93 mark over his last four. After never striking out more than 19 percent of batters in any of his first eight big-league seasons, Morton has struck out at least 26 percent in each of the last four years, but his incredible 31.2 percent this season represents yet another significant jump. He's combined that with a 7.8 percent walk rate, his lowest mark since 2015. The third-best pitcher according to our earned auction values, it's time to fully accept Morton as a top-tier fantasy ace rather than waiting for his age to catch up to him.

Yuli Gurriel, 1B/3B, Astros: Something has gotten into the Gurriels lately. Lourdes featured in last week's Barometer, and Yuli is a deserving entrant in this week's edition. The elder brother has been on a tear his last 25 games, hitting .346/.398/.750 with 12 homers. He's still not a great power hitter for a corner infielder (or at least he wasn't before his latest hot streak), but he's shown more power than ever this season, as his .493 slugging percentage is a career high, while his 16 homers are just two shy of his career high with 68 games still to play. He's also making even more contact than before, as his 10.0 percent strikeout rate is a full-season career low.  It might have been reasonable to expect the emergence of Yordan Alvarez to crowd the Astros' lineup and send Gurriel to the bench more often, but his play of late has made him seemingly immune to losing time.

Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox: Right from the beginning of the season, Devers seemed to be rebounding from a poor sophomore season, but he's really hit a new level since June 12. In 24 games, he's hit .408/.453/.745 with 12 multi-hit efforts. It shouldn't surprise us to see a highly-touted 22-year-old continue to get better, but the gap between his .240/.298/.433 slash line last season and his .329/.375/.552 mark this year is nevertheless far larger than most anticipated. A 74-point jump in his BABIP is undoubtedly partially responsible, but much of that jump appears to be well-deserved, as the quality of his contact has noticeably improved. He's raised his hard-hit rate from 41.7 percent to 49.7 percent, leading to a jump in expected batting average from .239 to .299. Devers has been the top third baseman according to our earned auction values and should remain one of the top players at the position the rest of the way.

Maikel Franco, 3B, Phillies: Franco has long been a streaky hitter. He teased promise with a strong .280/.343/.497 slash line back in 2015, but the cold streaks have outnumbered the hot ones for the bulk of his career, giving him a .251/.304/.436 line in parts of six seasons. The same streakiness has been present this season. Franco opened the year hitting quite well, posting a .271/.360/.542 slash line over his first 27 games. He was downright awful in his next 42 games, hitting .155/.204/.240 and losing his starting job. He suddenly turned things around with a three-RBI game on June 24 and has hit an incredible .389/.443/.759 over his last 16 games. The volatility is tough to stomach for fantasy owners, but if there's ever a time to own Franco, it's now (or, more accurately, three weeks ago).

Lance Lynn, SP, Rangers: Lynn has had a very odd relationship with his FIP the last three seasons. In 2017, his first season back from Tommy John surgery, his 3.43 ERA was quite good, but his 4.82 FIP suggested that major regression was coming. His 2018 season proved that prophecy true, as his ERA rose all the way to 4.77, but his 3.84 FIP indicated that he hadn't pitched all that poorly. His ERA has improved to 3.64 this season, but his FIP of 2.86 suggests that he deserves far better yet again. In his age-32 season, Lynn has recorded a full-season career-high strikeout rate of 26.4 percent, and he's suddenly figured out how to stop walking batters, cutting his walk rate from 10.9 percent last season to 5.5 percent this season. A trade to a more pitcher-friendly home park at the deadline could boost Lynn's fantasy value, but the Rangers are surprisingly still in the race and Lynn seems perfectly comfortable in Texas for now.

Yu Darvish, SP, Cubs: Is Yu Darvish finally pitching like Yu Darvish again? You can't tell by his season ERA (4.72) or FIP (5.05). You also can't really tell by his ERA over his last five games (4.11). His peripherals over that stretch provide some room for encouragement, however, as he's combined a 31.9 percent strikeout rate with a 5.0 percent walk rate. Seven homers over that stretch have inflated his ERA, but a 3.14 xFIP in those five games (a statistic that estimates a pitcher's ERA based on his strikeout rate, walk rate and the league average HR/FB rate) paints an encouraging picture of the pitcher Darvish could be. Darvish's owner may well be sick of waiting for him to turn things around, so now could be a good time to strike with a trade offer, as the underlying numbers have improved even if the results remain mediocre.

FALLERS

Derek Dietrich, 1B/2B/OF, Reds: Dietrich was one of the stories of the early part of the season, transforming from a fine but thoroughly forgettable hitter to hit .269/.373/.700 over his first 52 games. He's fallen off hard in the 28 games since, hitting .132/.290/.276 with zero multi-hit games. His strikeout rate has jumped from 20.9 percent over the first stretch to 25.5 percent over the second. He's also stopped hitting flyballs, with his flyball rate plummeting from 51.0 percent to 36.5 percent. An equally big hit to Dietrich's value comes from Scooter Gennett's return from his groin strain. If he was still as hot as he was early in the season, Dietrich might be able to hold Gennett off, but given his current struggles it would hardly be a surprise to see him lose significant time. Both players are left-handed, as are first baseman Joey Votto and left fielder Jesse Winker, so there's no obvious platoon for Dietrich anywhere on the diamond.

Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals: DeJong opened the season on a tear, hitting .320/.408/.562 through his first 47 games and putting himself in the conversation as one of the top offensive shortstops in baseball. In the 42 games since, he's endured an awful time at the plate, posting a .181/.258/.294 slash line, bringing his season line to a thoroughly mediocre .254/.339/.435, good for a 104 wRC+. His strikeout rate has risen from 16.5 percent in the first stretch to 21.3 percent in the second, while his walk rate has fallen from 12.1 percent to 6.2 percent. His hard contact has fallen dramatically as well, sitting at 49.7 percent during the first split and 35.8 percent during the second. DeJong's elevated strikeout rate over the latter stretch is still well below his 26.5 percent mark from his first two big-league seasons, so he's made legitimate growth in at least one area, but that's been canceled out by a drop in barrel rate and exit velocity, so the overall picture suggests a final line not too different from last year's .241/.313/.433 mark.

Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Yankees: Encarnacion featured in this column immediately following his trade to the Yankees, with the assumption that a switch to a more hitter-friendly park with a stronger lineup around him would boost his already strong numbers. Since then, he's been in a significant slump, hitting .139/.225/.347 in 18 games. A .133 BABIP is undoubtedly to blame for much of his struggles, but he's also seen his strikeout rate jump from 19.0 percent with the Mariners to 28.8 percent with the Yankees. The 36-year-old no longer seems to be aging in reverse like he was at the beginning of the season, and while he still has plenty of power, that's an increasingly common commodity these days, and his comes with a .217 batting average. 

Robinson Chirinos, C, Astros: Chirinos started the season hot, hitting .243/.367/.521 through his first 53 games, seemingly on the way to a career year in his age-35 season, his first one in Houston. He's fallen back to earth hard since then, however, hitting .150/.278/.183 over his last 20 games, with zero homers and zero multi-hit games. The slump has lowered his season slash line to .218/.344/.432. His strong 13.2 percent walk rate certainly helps in OBP leagues, and he has good power for a catcher, though Statcast suggests he's overachieved in the latter category, giving him an expected slugging percentage of just .375. He also could have considerably further to fall in batting average, with an expected mark of .195.