This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
With two months of the season in the books, it's time to revisit an exercise featured in this column in the final Barometer in April. We'll look at the players who have most exceeded or most fallen short of their draft-day expectations through the end of May. As I noted in the end-of-April article, this represents a more results-oriented look at the season than normal, but I'll dive into a pair of players with each list and examine more closely how sustainable their performances have been.
We'll look at the biggest risers and fallers among top-100 picks and top-450 picks (the number of picks made in a standard NFBC draft). We'll also look at the top risers among players not picked within the top 450. (The reverse isn't particularly interesting, as there's not much to be gained from learning that an undraftable player has indeed been undraftable.)
These lists were created by comparing each player's NFBC ADP with his ranking on the Earned Auction Values list. The latter page was set to show values for a 15-team league with standard NFBC settings (14 hitters and nine pitchers), with 70 percent of the budget spent on hitters. For the lists of fallers, I ignored players who have been out for more than half of the season due to injury, as it's not particularly interesting to learn that an injured player has been a bust. (If you're curious, Giancarlo Stanton owners, he's played like a 57th-round pick.)
Top 100 picks