This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Sometimes people forget fantasy baseball is all about predictions. While it's certainly prudent to look closely at past performance, the real objective is to dust off the crystal ball and try to predict the future. We constantly have to ask the question, "What have you done for me lately, and what will you do for me today, tomorrow and beyond?"
Players, and even entire teams, go through hot stretches and cold stretches. Being human, player performance is rarely static, at least not over the short term. Most of my teams this season are mired mid-pack in the standings following two months of nearly epic under-performance with a few key injuries sprinkled in. For example, I have eight position players on one roster hitting below .200 for the year. Will things turn around? I certainly hope so, but it's a question of not only will things turn around, but will it be enough to catch and compete with the frontrunners. I play pretty much exclusively in keeper/dynasty leagues, so decisions will be made soon, just like in MLB, I will decide if I am a seller or a buyer this season.
That said, I have my own thoughts on how things might transpire over the next two-thirds of a season. Some of my players may change uniforms, making them more or less valuable, and others will simply perform better or worse as the summer wears on. I think this is a good time to get out the crystal ball, and to
Sometimes people forget fantasy baseball is all about predictions. While it's certainly prudent to look closely at past performance, the real objective is to dust off the crystal ball and try to predict the future. We constantly have to ask the question, "What have you done for me lately, and what will you do for me today, tomorrow and beyond?"
Players, and even entire teams, go through hot stretches and cold stretches. Being human, player performance is rarely static, at least not over the short term. Most of my teams this season are mired mid-pack in the standings following two months of nearly epic under-performance with a few key injuries sprinkled in. For example, I have eight position players on one roster hitting below .200 for the year. Will things turn around? I certainly hope so, but it's a question of not only will things turn around, but will it be enough to catch and compete with the frontrunners. I play pretty much exclusively in keeper/dynasty leagues, so decisions will be made soon, just like in MLB, I will decide if I am a seller or a buyer this season.
That said, I have my own thoughts on how things might transpire over the next two-thirds of a season. Some of my players may change uniforms, making them more or less valuable, and others will simply perform better or worse as the summer wears on. I think this is a good time to get out the crystal ball, and to see if we can make some predictions. It's worth a shot, so let's go.
Nationals finish under .500: Many fantasy players (myself included) expected the Nationals to be front-runners to win the NL East and probably work deep into the playoffs. Unfortunately, an Achilles heel wrecked the best laid plans. The fantastic trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin did their best, but they could not overcome one of the worst bullpens in recent memory. At the end of May, Scherzer had made 12 starts. He boasted a respectable 1.19 WHIP with a 3.26 ERA, yet the Nats had won just two of those 12 games as the bullpen failed again and again to get the game to closer Sean Doolittle. And, that frustration continues throughout the year. Washington still looks good on paper so they are not buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, preferring to regroup and wait until next year. The big three's peripherals and strikeouts are helpful, but the inability to pile up wins hurts their fantasy value for this season, and the back of the rotation created even more stress for that woeful bullpen.
Houston posts the best record in baseball: The Astros are the flip side of the coin. Loaded with some of the most talented young players in the game, and led by the core of their starting staff, they too have trouble filling out their rotation. But, perhaps the best bullpen in the major leagues helps them run away with the AL West on the way to another World Series appearance. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are dominant, and that pen is almost untouchable. The 36-year-old Verlander wins the Cy Young with a dazzling 22-5 record, and Roberto Osuna leads the league in saves, but the unsung heroes are set-up men Ryan Pressly and Hector Rondon who, along with their pen pals, effectively turn the team's games into six-inning affairs. Don't act surprised that the Astros added a starting pitcher at the deadline. This was always just a hunch, but lefty Madison Bumgarner, who sensed a World Series ring with a move to Houston, got his chance. That filled a specific need and significantly boosted Mad Bum's value.
Boston outguns the Yankees to win the AL East: Most of the Yankees walking wounded position players eventually return to the lineup, but Luis Severino's rehab from a significant lat injury drags into August, while James Paxton pitches well but struggles to stay on the mound due to a malady of aches and pains. They even open the checkbook and sign Dallas Keuchel, but he posts mediocre stats and doesn't provide the help they were hoping for. Even the bullpen is not immune to the injury bug. A balky shoulder causes closer Aroldis Chapman to miss some time, and while backup Zack Britton does a solid job filling in, the bullpen is overtaxed as the season wears on. Conversely, in Boston, Chris Sale seems to get better with every start after his horrible April and easily leads the league in strikeouts. David Price finally gets and stays healthy, and Rick Porcello provides some much-needed quality innings, but the difference-maker is the June return (and outstanding performance) of Nathan Eovaldi. His bionic arm seems better than ever, and he displays better-than-expected command of his secondary stuff, allowing him to take a major step forward. The bullpen remains a work in progress all year long, but when things get shaky, the Sox just break out the big guns and score more runs.
The Braves catch fire behind a surprising Cy Young candidate: The Braves sense a huge opportunity, and they capitalize. Kevin Gausman finally enjoys an extended, mishap-free, stretch of consistency to show off his capabilities, and Mike Foltynewicz continues to progress after missing the first six weeks of the season. They even go out and sign free agent closer Craig Kimbrel who solidifies a shaky bullpen overnight, but the big story in Atlanta is the emergence of 21-year-old starter, Mike Soroka. Through May, Soroka compiled a sparkling 5-1 record with a 0.89 WHIP and a 1.07 ERA, and it just continues on as the season progresses. The Braves are understandably cautious with his workload, but he still posts 15 wins and even receives consideration for the Cy Young award. This isn't his year to win it, but his day is coming if he stays healthy, and he'll have to be content in 2019 with a deep run into the playoffs. The future is even brighter in the South with the team's amazing young position players, and they even pull a mild surprise by bringing up their next pitching star, Ian Anderson, for a couple September starts. Too late to be a fantasy factor this season, he's definitely one to keep an eye on going forward. The Braves upset the Dodgers and face the Astros in the World Series, showcasing a lot of young talent.
Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:
- I was skeptical regarding the readiness of the Pirates Mitch Keller. He made his MLB debut earlier this week, and he was thumped by the Reds. Keller clearly has some ability, as he did fan seven in four innings, but he still lacks the consistent command of his repertoire needed to be successful. He's just not ready.
- Trevor Bauer has struggled of late, but I see things coming back together for him. The Indians haven't gotten off to a good start, and I think there's a chance he moves to a new team near the trade deadline. He could be the trade target plum, and the Padres have been mentioned as a possible landing spot.
- Phillies' right-hander Nick Pivetta struggled mightily in April, so I wanted to have a look and see if things were improving after he was recalled from Triple-A. His command was still erratic, especially in the first inning when he allowed a pair of home runs, but it was better overall. I'm cautiously optimistic.
- Interesting first start for Cleveland's Zach Plesac. He faced the Red Sox – not the easiest assignment – he dealt with miserable weather and he even returned to the mound following a long rain delay. I'm not sure he has the depth of arsenal to be really effective, but you have to love the composure he displayed.
- I think San Diego's Matt Strahm might be one of the best kept secrets in the game these days. He's just 2-4 but he has pitched much better than that record. The Padres are being cautious with his workload in his first season as a starter for the big club, but he's definitely showing he belongs.
- Matt Harvey was placed on the injured list earlier this week after allowing eight runs to the Twins in less than three innings. Word is he has been battling back woes without telling the team. He looked so much better the second half of last season. So, is the back problem the reason for his most recent downfall?
Endgame Odyssey
The Red Sox continue to adjust on the fly, with Marcus Walden recently notching his first career save. I think they would like to keep their usage options open with Matt Barnes, and he and Walden appear to have passed Ryan Brasier on the bullpen depth chart. Baltimore's Mychal Givens was removed from the closer's role after an ugly stretch of appearances, but it's probably temporary. Shawn Armstrong picked up the first save chance following Givens' removal, but he doesn't look like the answer. Actually, it may not matter much. You have to win games to generate saves. Hector Neris has converted all 10 of his save chances this year. That should buy him at least a bit of job security, but things can change very quickly in Philadelphia, so I'm not casting his name in stone just yet. Hansel Robles is doing his best to keep the Angels' closing gig, but I think it's only a matter of time before he capitulates and re-opens the door for the more experienced Cody Allen. If you're shopping for saves, I think my favorite add might be the Giants' Mark Melancon. I don't see Will Smith staying in San Francisco, and Melancon's contract could prove difficult to move so he could finally get his job back. I remain confident Jose Leclerc will return to the closer's role following a trade of the currently being showcased Shawn Kelley.
Next week is one of the highlights of the season for me. The first year player draft is Monday, June 3, and in the next Musings, we'll take a look at some of the talented arms being drafted.
