Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

I will continue to pound the table for Dylan Cease of the White Sox, particularly since it seems like every other organization is promoting their top prospects to the big leagues these days.  The Blue Jays gave Cavan Biggio an opening - much to the delight of his Hall of Fame father - while Zach Plesac got the call by the Tribe; his uncle is former MLB reliever Dan Plesac.  Meanwhile the Padres let Josh Naylor see the big leagues due to their interleague matchups, and the Diamondbacks got a jolt of power from Kevin Cron.  The Dodgers rewarded catcher Will Smith with a promotion as well, as Austin Barnes was sent to the Injured List.  Even Mitch Keller got in on the action for the Pirates, although his first start is likely one he'll want to forget.

Cease has pitched just 40 innings at Triple-A, but the White Sox starters have the worst ERA in the MLB at 5.79.  Only Dylan Covey and Lucas Giolito even have ERAs under 6.00.  Carlos Rodon was supposed to be the team ace, but he is done for the season and maybe even 2020 due to Tommy John surgery.  While it's true the White Sox are not going anywhere in 2019, Cease simply has to be in the plans for this season.  The best bet would be to allow him to get his feet wet in a season where there are no team expectations.  My guess is his promotion happens sometime in July.

Let's take a look at some other movers and shakers in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Logan Gilbert, P, SEA – Gilbert's 2018 season was essentially a wash following being drafted, as he battled a bout of mononucleosis.  He has hit the ground running in 2019, breezing through Low-A with a 1.83 ERA and 30:5 K:BB in 19.2 innings.  That resulted in a quick bump to High-A, where the 22-year-old hasn't missed a beat, posting a 1.69 ERA and 29:4 K:BB in 21.1 innings.  The 2018 collegiate leader in strikeouts carried a heavy workload at Stetson, but has been durable and has a simple, repeatable delivery despite standing at 6-foot-6 while commanding four pitches.  As a result, Gilbert could move quickly through the organization.

Brady Singer, P, KC – The Royals went pitching heavy in the early rounds of the 2018 Draft, and they look to have hit on several of those picks already.  Kris Bubic set Low-A ablaze with 75 strikeouts in just 47.2 innings earlier this year, while Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar are more than holding their own at High-A Wilmington.  Singer shared a rotation spot with all three hurlers at High-A, and the former Florida Gator looks polished with a 1.87 ERA and 53:13 K:BB in 57.2 innings.  While Singer may not have the strikeout stuff of a frontline ace, his fastball and slider have plenty of movement for him to get by, and his low arm slot allows for some deception as well.  What I like most about him is his ability to keep the ball down.  He's also recorded a 2.06 GO:AO, and has allowed just one home run in three starts.  He may not have the upside of Kowar or Bubic, but he just got promoted to Double-A and could be the first of the group to see the big leagues.

Seth Beer, OF, HOU – The Astros own a ton of exceptional outfield depth ahead of Beer at Triple-A (Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker), with Beer considered a liability anywhere on the field largely due to his lack of speed.  Still, that hasn't stopped him from hitting, and the former College Player of the Year out of Clemson has been on fire thus far in 2019.  Beer slashed .328/.414/.602 with nine home runs and 34 RBI in 35 games at High-A, resulting in a quick promotion.  He's been even better through 10 games at Double-A, batting .395/.500/.632 with two home runs and 11 RBI.  Beer may have to DH in the big leagues, and his production is reliant upon his ability to hit for both average and power while also drawing walks.  That being said, if he continues to hit at this clip, the Astros will have another good problem on their hands.

Shane Baz, P, TB – Baz won't turn 20 until June, so perhaps it is not unpredictable that a pitcher drafted straight out of prep school in 2017 struggled in 2018.  Sent to the Rays as the Player To Be Named Later in the Chris Archer deal, Baz has looked the part of his lofty draft status thus far in 2019 after spending the first month of the season in extended spring training by posting a 1.80 ERA and 25:5 K:BB in 20 innings for Low-A Bowling Green.  Oddly, Baz was known for working down in the zone prior to this season but has had success through four starts at Low-A giving up a bevy of outs in the air.  He's still inducing weak contact, as opposing batters are hitting just .174 against him.  The sample size is small, but Baz is young and has huge upside.  It could be an excellent buy-low opportunity for anyone who forgot about him.

CHECK STATUS

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, BAL – Mountcastle has actually played at first base, third base and outfield thus far this season, and has also DHed - part of the O's plan to make him versatile for the eventual big-league promotion.  Unfortunately, he is dealing with a minor finger injury which has sidelined him for the last couple of games, possibly delaying his MLB premiere.  Mountcastle's bat is certainly not the issue, as he is hitting .326/.351/.528 with seven home runs and 33 RBI in 43 games at Triple-A.  Once he returns to full health and proves he can play a corner outfield slot, he should get called up to the show.  It just might not happen for another month.

Taylor Trammell, OF, CIN – The good news for Trammell is his On-Base Percentage currently sits at .389 at Double-A, and he projects for double-digit home runs and 20-plus steals.  The bad news is he is hitting a career-low .245, and Nick Senzel is currently blocking him in center field.  Senzel is a third baseman by trade, but Eugenio Suarez is locked into an extension at the hot corner, and Jose Iglesias is a plus defender at shortstop.  Though the athletic Senzel has versatility, his move to center field now technically blocks Trammell at the highest level.   Trammell likely isn't seeing the big leagues until next season anyway, so the Reds have time to decide where everyone will play.  He is not considered a great defender to begin with, so it's best to monitor his situation.

Brailyn Marquez, P, CHC – Arguably the top pitching prospect in the Cubs organization, Marquez has flashed his strikeout stuff through 35 innings at Low-A South Bend.  The southpaw has 47 strikeouts over that span, using primarily his mid-90's heater to hold the opposition to a .226 BAA.  Walks remain a concern, having issued 21 free passes over those 35 innings - including seven in one game in late April.  He's been better over his last four starts, but the additional base runners could impact him negatively as he ascends to the higher levels.  Marquez has the size at 6-foot-4 and fastball to find success, but his future path will be determined by how he harnesses his decent breaking ball and emerging changeup.

Jordan Holloway, P, MIA – Holloway was a 20th round pick in 2014, but despite throwing hard he largely struggled through his early years in the Miami organization.  When it finally appeared some progress was being made, he suffered an elbow injury in 2017 and needed Tommy John surgery.  Holloway appears to have made it all the way back, and could be having the best results of his checkered professional career with a 1.51 ERA and 43:26 K:BB in 35.2 innings for High-A Jupiter.  The control issues are understandable coming off Tommy John, yet Holloway is missing a plethora of bats with his upper-90's fastball and nasty curveball and pposing batters are hitting a putrid .133 against.  If Holloway can stay healthy and improve his command, he could be a sleeper for the pitching-starved Fish.

DOWNGRADE

Akil Baddoo, OF, MIN – While the club is surging at the big league level, the minor league organization had a rough week in terms of injuries.  Baddoo is having season-ending elbow surgery and will miss the remainder of the season.  This news came at the same time top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol went on the Injured List with a shoulder problem.  Graterol has plenty of upside, but durability remains a concern.  He has yet to pitch more than 102 innings in any season despite starting with the Twins organization in 2015.  Baddoo's stock had been trending downward even before the injury, as he was hitting just .214 with 39 strikeouts in 29 games with High-A Fort Myers.

Jhon Torres, OF, STL – Torres dominated Rookie Ball last season as an 18-year-old, but he's having a much more difficult time during his first crack at Low-A.  Torres is slashing a dismal .137/.224/.157 - and that's after going five for his last 12.  Perhaps that means Torres is turning the corner, because overall he has looked overmatched thus far in 2019.  He's already a physical specimen at 6-foot-4, 200-plus pounds, but his baseball skills still have to catch up to his immense raw talent.  Torres has the tools to right the ship, and he is still awfully young.  Nevertheless, he certainly hoped for a better start to full-season ball.

Blake Rutherford, OF, CHW – Rutherford came over from the Yankees organization in 2017, a still highly touted first round pick from the 2016 draft.  He's lost some of his prospect lustre since then - particularly due to his lack of power - but he still hit .293 last year and led the Carolina League with 78 RBI in 2018.  Unfortunately, 2019 has been a nightmare for Rutherford at Double-A, as the 22-year old is slashing just .181/.224/.292.  He possesses decent contact skills, but does not draw many walks and his power is virtually non-existent with only three home runs through 40 games.  In his professional career spanning over 289 games and 1,100 at-bats, he has hit 15 home runs.  Rutherford's power does not appear to ever be coming, and if he can't even hit for average at the higher levels, then there isn't much left in his prospect profile.  Add in a checkered injury history with a possible current unknown injury, and Rutherford is a candidate for the prospect abyss.

Carlos Guzman, P, DET – The minor league system for the Tigers has enjoyed a monstrous resurgence this season, particularly in the pitching ranks.  Casey Mize looks every bit the No. 1 pick he was selected with, while Matt Manning has been simply dominant at Double-A.  Those two look like the frontline rotation anchors the Tigers haven't had since Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  Alex Faedo and Tarik Skubal are also enjoying successful seasons, giving Detroit glimpses of a strong future in terms of the future arms race.  Guzman signed with the Tigers in 2015 but has been brought along slowly.  Currently at Low-A, the 21-year old from Venezuela has a 2.73 ERA and 27:18 K:BB in 33 innings.  Opposing batters are hitting just .197 against Guzman, though issues with control should be noted.  He also recently went on the Injured List due to an elbow injury, the severity of which is unknown.  Guzman was not nearly as far along as the pitchers mentioned above, but he was still considered among the top seven or eight pitchers in the Detroit farm system prior to injury.  A more severe issue would obviously significantly diminish his future outlook.