Mound Musings: Checking the AL Bullpens

I feel like pitching is becoming more and more like the chemistry sets of my youth. Mix a little of this with a lot of that and a pinch of something else, pop on the goggles, and see if it explodes. Starters throw more pitches, in fewer innings, and relief pitchers get into more games and often in the middle innings. For fantasy purposes, managing your relief pitchers is both challenging and rewarding if you can find the best contributors before the other owners in your league, so I try to donate space in the Musings for bullpen analysis. 

Playing musical chairs out in the pen

Already this season, perhaps more than ever, we have seen closer scenarios changing, or at least potentially changing. Relief pitching has become an ever-increasing part of success in major league baseball. Very few teams have five reliable starters. In fact, there are teams that would be hard pressed to pencil in more than a couple of regular starting pitchers who can be expected to generate positive innings on a consistent basis. True quality relievers are becoming more important, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to "save" that best guy for the ninth inning. Let's take a look at some closer assignments in the AL and see where they may be headed:

Here are some AL closer scenarios to keep an eye on:

• Seattle Mariners – The Mariners got off to a hot start, but they have cooled off, and the bullpen has been a contributing factor. They added Hunter Strickland in the offseason, and he began the year as the team's closer. Unfortunately, a lat strain put him out of action early on. Anthony Swarzak began the year on the IL and was asked to step into a committee when he returned, but he's much better suited to a set-up role. Roenis Elias serves as the southpaw side of that closer committee, but he too is somewhat miscast in that role, so despite filling in reasonably well, he could help more in a more flexible role, potentially even multiple inning stints. The bottom line is, the M's, and fantasy owners, need Strickland back. His rehab is going pretty much as expected, but he hasn't yet resumed throwing, so he's likely at least a month away. Seattle simply doesn't have many viable options, so in the interim, Swarzak and Elias will probably continue to split the chances based on matchups, but getting a lead to them might be problematic, and when a save opportunity does arise, there's no guarantee your guy will get the call.
• Los Angeles Angels – Cody Allen spent five seasons as the primary closer for Cleveland, and he did fairly well, logging 147 saves during his tenure. However, his performance deteriorated last season (a 1.36 WHIP with a 4.79 ERA and 11 home runs allowed in 67 innings). He moved to the Angels over the winter, but the skeletons in his closet followed along. Homeruns and walks cost him the closer gig, and interestingly, just a couple days later he landed on the IL with a back strain. His mechanics were clearly off. Did the mechanics contribute to the back issues, or did the back issues create mechanical problems? It's hard to say, but he'll need to get healthy, get in sync and prove both before getting his job back. I have never seen him as a prototype closer, but the Angels made the investment, and their current primary guy, Hansel Robles, is less so. They also have Ty Buttrey and will hope to get the promising Keynan Middleton back around midseason as he completes his rehab from Tommy John surgery in May of last year. To me, the fact that Robles is handling most save chances right now rather than Buttrey suggests Allen will be back in line soon. I continue to be impressed with Buttrey, and I see him as their future closer. I think they prefer to keep him in a set-up role rather than install him as the ninth-inning guy, and then switch him back to the seventh and eighth inning when they deem Allen ready.
• Kansas City Royals– Not unlike the Mariners, the Royals don't currently have a pitcher who stands out as the obvious guy to close. The difference is, there is no one on the IL, or even in the pipeline, coming soon to help. Currently, a save chance could go to veteran, former starter, Ian Kennedy or an often inconsistent Wily Peralta, while the equally erratic Brad Boxberger lurks in the shadows. All three are right-handed, so there isn't a matchup scenario, meaning I expect the most effective arm over time to eventually emerge as the team's primary closer. Basically, I think we are still in the audition phase of musical relievers. Boxberger probably profiles closest to a ninth-inning guy, and he has some on and off closing experience, but health issues and lack of command have long been issues for him. Peralta surprised a lot of people with a stretch of successful conversions late last season, but I just don't see that again. That leaves Kennedy. He's still making the conversion to bullpen work, his velocity is up a couple ticks as he pitches shorter outings, he's the definition of a wily veteran, and he can command the strike zone. That's good enough for me.
• Texas Rangers – Most of the pitchers discussed in this edition of the Musings are contenders for a closing gig or pretenders to the same. Not here. The Rangers have a genuine closer, albeit a closer who could change uniforms sometime soon as the team pushes on in rebuild mode, but if you remember the movie Top Gun, it's as simple as this, you have a confidence problem. It's not unusual for a young closer to go through this. Jose Leclerc gives up a walk, a bloop and a blast. Blown save. Loss. And most damaging, some insidious and perhaps nagging doubts. Something similar happens again, and the whole thing becomes magnified. Leclerc hasn't lost his stuff, but he wasn't as composed just prior to being removed as the closer. Veterans Shawn Kelley and Chris Martin (who resurrected his career by pitching a couple seasons for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan, including 21 saves in 2016) are filling in – and probably being showcased for potential trade partners – but Leclerc has already had two successful lower-leverage outings, and I anticipate him closing again soon.
• Boston Red Sox – This is about closing duties, but it happens to be about the changing face of relief pitching. The Red Sox have 18 wins so far this season, and the bullpen has collected 11 of those victories. Marcus Walden alone has five – that's more than Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello combined. It won't last, and even if it did, the future beneficiaries would be difficult to predict. But if starters struggle, failing to get deep into games, while a potent offense is capable of overcoming an opponent's lead, such anomalies can occur. So what about the closing landscape? Initially the Red Sox opted to use Ryan Brasier to close games, reserving their top closing option, Matt Barnes, for a more flexible role. It worked for a while, but Brasier has struggled at times, and Barnes is likely to see the majority of save chances going forward. That is, until the Sox decide to bring in a more experienced end gamer. I still think that is the likely eventuality.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Jameson Taillon just can't seem to catch a break. I looked forward to what I felt could be his breakout campaign, but a flexor strain has derailed his season. Thankfully, a second opinion confirmed a strain, and no tear in his surgically repaired elbow, but he is probably not going to be back before late June.
• Oakland's Mike Fiers tossed his second career no-hitter the other night, which underscores the inconsistencies of starting pitching right now. Fiers has always flashed the potential to toss quality innings, but he has to locate (I know, I mention that often), and he hasn't shown me he can execute inning after inning.
• The Braves are gradually integrating their young starting pitchers into the rotation, and there are more good ones on the way, but I'm really enjoying the work of Mike Soroka. I'm not predicting he won't have an occasional tough start, but his stuff and mound presence have him high on my pursue list.
• The Rays consistently groom outstanding young pitchers, but they aren't immune to the injury bug. Brent Honeywell is one of their up and coming hurlers, but he has encountered another setback in his rehab resulting in him being shut down for at least a couple weeks. His return is now in limbo, and 2019 may be in jeopardy.
• One of many pitchers who began the season with a handful of rough outings has shown signs of getting it all together, Miles Mikolas has provided three quality starts in his last four. His pitches have displayed good movement, and he's hitting his spots again with consistency. I'm very optimistic.
• He's not going to pitch this season, but it's great to see Shohei Ohtani back on the playing field. He'll be back on the mound in 2020, and that's where he can really stand out. If he's available at a DH-only discount in your keeper/dynasty league, I would make a play for him. His ceiling is off the charts.

Endgame Odyssey:

I'll be interested to see how things go in Cincinnati over the coming days. Their closer Raisel Iglesias publicly questioned his usage, which is a bit unusual, but him pitching in situations other than the ninth inning, protecting a lead, is more prominent these days. I don't see an imminent change in save chances but I am concerned his performance could be negatively impacted. Kenley Jansen needed a night off after throwing a lot of pitches over three consecutive games. Julio Urias picked up his first career save with a solid ninth inning. There will only be occasional opportunities for Urias, but the takeaway here is the confidence the team has in his ability to pitch in high-leverage spots. One pitcher who has impressed so far is the Cardinals' Jordan Hicks. His arm is amazing but he's locating his pitches better, and learning to mix things up, keeping hitters off balance. I have never really seen Pedro Strop as a long-term closer, but the Cubs aren't going to see Brandon Morrow back anytime soon, so the job may be his as long as he maintains reasonable effectiveness. However, he just went on the IL with a hamstring strain, which probably opens the door for Steve Cishek. If only Carl Edwards Jr. could harness his dynamic stuff.