Mound Musings: Some of the Biggest Surprises so Far

This year, it seems like there have been even more (than usual) young, at least somewhat lesser known, pitchers finding work in starting rotations. Some have enjoyed some success, and that always leads to decisions on whether they should be added to your fantasy roster. Veteran pitchers like Luis Severino, Mike Foltynewicz and Rich Hill missing the first month obviously opened some doors. As is fairly normal, teams with the very best pitching prospects aren't bringing them up yet, so their second-tier minor leaguers get their chance to show off. Even with good beginnings, most won't post long-term value, as the hitters build a book on them and uncover their flaws. However, some will take advantage of the opportunity, and so should you.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have impressed me with both solid numbers, and future potential at this point in the season. Then, we'll flip the coin, and I'll throw out some pitchers who have posted impressive numbers so far, but might not see a major league mound too many more times. Watch the warning signs on these guys.

You might consider adding these arms:

Chris Paddack (Padres) – Paddack is just one a handful of higher upside starters beginning to make their way to San Diego. He has very good stuff, pretty good command of that stuff, and, perhaps most notably, a mound presence beyond what you might expect from someone at his age and professional experience level. Those attributes add up to someone capable of contributing to your fantasy team right away. You might also consider lefty Matt Strahm in deeper leagues. He's still adjusting, and his command can be spotty at times so he's a bit more risky, but I like his skill set. And, for those prospecting for the future, MacKenzie Gore and Adrian Morejon are actually the best arms in a loaded system.

Frankie Montas (A's) – When Montas was in the minors, and during his initial trials at the major league level, I thought he might be destined for the bullpen. He had electric stuff, but his command was erratic, especially on his secondary pitches. Watching him earlier this year, he has shown marked improvement with his command, and he appears more confident in his stuff. His walk rate is down a bit, and his strikeout rate is gradually improving. He's not a finished product yet, but if the improvement continues, pitching half his games in a pitcher-friendly home park, he's the type of inexpensive pitcher who could outperform his price tag and help win fantasy league titles.

Mike Soroka (Braves) – I've liked just about everything about Soroka since the first time I saw him pitch. He has a full repertoire of above average offerings that he will throw in any count or situation. His command is generally very good as he works in and out while staying down in the zone most of the time. That leads to a lot of weak contact. He's not going to be a huge strikeout pitcher, but I think he can average about one an inning. But, perhaps his biggest attribute is an exemplary level of mound presence. Typically the youngest pitcher at every stop he made on his way to Atlanta, Soroka stepped up like a seasoned veteran. That's a winner's pedigree. The Braves are loaded with very talented young pitchers, and I rank him and Ian Anderson at the top. Rust is likely, but my only concern is the shoulder woes he suffered late last year. He's worth the risk.

Julio Urias (Dodgers) – Urias has actually been around since 2016 when he tossed 77 innings for the Dodgers as a 19-year-old. However, injuries have slowed his progress, including anterior capsule surgery that cost him most of last season. So far this year, he has filled in for injured starters and has now, at least temporarily, moved back to the bullpen. That has led to him being somewhat forgotten in some leagues. Don't make that mistake. The team is understandably being very cautious with his workload. He'll likely serve as a long man and occasional spot starter, but every time he steps on the mound, he is capable of contributing. Depending on your league's scoring system, his value could be a bit compromised, but I'd rather have him in my lineup than a weak starting pitcher. And, if you are in a keeper/dynasty league, go get him today.  

I'm staying away from these pitchers:

Spencer Turnbull (Tigers) – Turnbull has all the makings of a prototypical trap in fantasy baseball. Injuries opened a spot in the Detroit rotation. Rather than use one of their most promising kids, they slid Turnbull into the rotation, and after five starts he has a 2.77 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 26 innings. Not bad. In fact, it's good enough to get him added to rosters of fantasy teams desperate for pitching. Unfortunately, the success story might have a less than successful ending. He has a decent fastball and slider, but his change and curveball aren't very reliable. His rather unorthodox delivery is currently helping keep unfamiliar hitters off balance, but it also negatively impacts his overall command. If you own him, now is a good time to trade him. The clock is ticking.  

Max Fried (Braves) – Posting very good numbers in April (1.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP) and pitching in front of one of the most exciting young teams in baseball, it's not too surprising that Fried is drawing some attention. However, this is potentially another case of buyer beware. He features a very nice curveball and a decent fastball with pretty good command, but those two pitches may not equate to long-term success in the rotation. He'll need more, but I think his eventual role could be as a swingman where his limited arsenal won't be overly exposed. Like many teams with a lot of pitching in the minor leagues, the Braves may use Fried to start as needed until reinforcements arrive.

Erik Swanson (Mariners) – Swanson is an interesting study. His fastball isn't overpowering, but he does generate good movement with it. His secondary pitches – a slider and change – are probably average or close to it. That may be enough to just get by in a starting role, but I'm concerned that better hitting teams will recognize the fastball and sit on it until they get something in the hitting zone. That means he could run into trouble the second and third time through the order. He may be marginally adequate as a streamer in the fantasy game in a pinch, but just like in the real game, if he is overexposed, the risk goes up. I think you can probably do better.

Joe Musgrove (Pirates) – When Musgrove came to Pittsburgh in the Gerrit Cole deal, there were a lot of people expecting big things from him when he took a regular turn every five days. I have to admit I was skeptical and I remain so. In 2017 he posted very dramatic splits with a 1.44 ERA as a reliever and a 6.12 ERA as a starter. To my eyes, like quite a few relatively competent pitchers, he tends to be overexposed when facing lineups two, three or more times a game. On the plus side, he throws strikes, but he gets too much of the plate too often, and pacing himself to get deeper into games, his bread and butter fastball just doesn't have the necessary zip. I've only seen a couple innings this season, but it was more of the same, so I see regression in the future. I really think the bullpen is the ideal home for him to flourish.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Maybe the hardest thing to do is watch a pitcher fighting to find his groove. It's hard because you often see enough to know it's there. Matt Harvey doesn't have raw ability he possessed in the glory days, but make no mistake, he can still be a quality pitcher. He just needs to discover his new mound persona.
• Yu Darvish continues to struggle, and you can see the frustration he is going through in his body language. The velocity is okay, but the command can go from batter to batter, particularly on his breaking pitches. I think he is healthy, but his mechanics are really giving him fits. I think he finds it. Big buy low candidate?
• The velocity returned as soon as White Sox southpaw Carlos Rodon returned to the mound. As expected, the command was initially pretty inconsistent. That said, it continues to improve with each outing, and Rodon is showing the skill set the team hopes will lead to happy days as their kids develop.
• Very rarely do I endorse a pitcher who makes half of his starts in Coors Field, but German Marquez has convinced me that he has the arsenal to deal with that handicap. He's now 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA. There will be days where he doesn't have his best stuff, but on most days he's capable of a huge game.
• I have watched Matthew Boyd a couple of times this year thinking perhaps I should endorse him as a pitcher to pursue, but I'm just not there. Boyd has good, but not great, stuff and his slider is hard on lefties, but he doesn't really have a strong weapon against righties, and I think homeruns could be a problem.
• I'm a little surprised the Yankees let Gio Gonzalez go, but not at all surprised he has already hooked up with Milwaukee. His command still comes and goes, leading to higher pitch counts and shorter outings. That can limit his fantasy value, but he would still have been a modest upgrade for many.

Endgame Odyssey:

With a poor record, and facing an uphill battle, it appears the Giants may be among the first teams to conduct a 2019 fire sale. Besides their ace starter Madison Bumgarner, relievers Mark Melancon and Will Smith should offer considerable appeal for contenders. I think they will both have a change of address relatively soon. The Cubs suffered a blow to their pen when closer Brandon Morrow suffered a setback in his rehab. The Pedro Strop era will continue indefinitely. A few teams seem to be settling into a more predictable endgame pattern. In Boston, Ryan Brasier is collecting saves, while the versatile Matt Barnes serves as his primary set-up guy. The Phillies appear to have settled on Hector Neris as their primary closer, but we've been here before, watching Neris struggle and listening as musical closers plays on the jukebox. And, there are several remaining question marks. The Twins may be the most flexible with Blake Parker and Taylor Rogers getting the lion's share of the save chances. The Mariners have used both Roenis Elias and Anthony Swarzak in the ninth while they await the return of Hunter Strickland. Finally, the Angels' Cody Allen has struggled of late and has been at least temporarily removed from the closer's role. Several guys could get a shot at saves, but I'm still thinking Ty Buttrey.