Mound Musings: Who Are These Guys?

As the season is now underway, it's fun (and perhaps productive) to discuss random thoughts and observations on some new faces on the mounds around baseball. In fantasy, the answer to the ultimate question (does he offer value) is always elusive, but still worth seeking. I'm not sure that all encompassing answer is contained below, but hopefully we'll inspire some interactive conversation about some new pitchers who can help us all achieve the optimal pitching staff. It's worth a shot, so let's go.

Be careful. Don't be fooled: One of the most difficult things to sort through during the first few weeks of the season are those newcomers who post very impressive numbers over their first two or three starts of the season. Six shutout innings with eight punchouts, followed up with six-plus innings of one run ball and another handful of strikeouts. And, this guy was a relatively unheralded rookie who wasn't even guaranteed a roster spot when spring training began. You have to sort things out and identify the pretenders.

• Pedigree: On the whole, major league scouts are very intuitive. When scouting young pitchers, they usually rather quickly know who has a higher ceiling, and who is likely to be a back-of-the-rotation arm at best. Some teams focus almost exclusively on raw ability – that triple-digit fastball is a sure way to attract scouts – but most look at other things, too. Mound presence is a huge plus. A good "feel" for the game is something that is difficult to teach, so the best prospects come with the ability to pitch (as opposed to just throwing), and while some flaws can be corrected, solid mechanics make a pitcher more efficient, thereby upping that ceiling as the basic motion is tweaked to bring out the maximum performance. So how does this equate to pedigree? The top pitchers in every MLB draft earn high marks, usually in several categories. Late-round picks can surprise, but it's fairly rare, so that guy putting up the head-turning numbers in April, despite being relatively unknown, needs to show us that he is truly capable of outperforming his draft day scouting report. Otherwise, the smoke and mirrors are likely to fade.
• Repertoire: Pitchers add and subtract pitches from their arsenals all the time. They learn a new pitch, or decide a pitch they have been using isn't working so they don't throw that pitch any more. However, refining a pitch to where the pitcher can use it with confidence, in any count, and in almost any situation, is a challenge. Pretty much every pitcher throws a fastball (at some velocity), and there's a second pitch of some type. A slider or curveball or a change-up are the most common secondary offerings. However, MLB hitters can hit almost any pitch, regardless of velocity, if they know it's coming. Obviously, the more pitches a pitcher has available, the better the chance of keeping the hitter off balance and guessing. Many pitchers arrive in the major leagues with just two reliable pitches, and some of them end up in the rotation. If the new pitcher you are evaluating based on early season success has only two pitches he uses with confidence, that success is unlikely to last. Hitters do their homework. They learn what pitchers throw and what those pitches look like. During the learning curve, the pitcher may have an advantage, but as the book on that pitcher fills out, the advantage swings to the hitter, and without at least three or four quality offerings, those hitters will wait for a certain pitch, especially as they face the pitcher for a second or third time in a game. Less than three quality pitches is (or almost always should be) a ticket to the bullpen.
• Location: I like to evaluate how a pitcher spots the pitches in his arsenal. Belt high in the middle of the plate often results in bad things. So, the pitches need to be somewhere other than the center of the strikezone. Most pitchers prefer to work in and out, and in the lower part of the strikezone, sometimes just off of the zone, or slightly below it. I often watch the catcher as much as the pitcher when scouting. Does the catcher ask for pitches on both the outside and inside edges? And, does the pitch routinely end up in that location? If the catcher is clearly having to adjust on almost every pitch, locating pitches is a weakness for that pitcher. Every pitcher misses his spot at times. How often they miss is a key difference between aces and time bombs. Better stuff does certainly help compensate for poor location, but average stuff requires excellent location for any long term chance of survival. Finally, one more thing to watch for. The pitchers at the top of my list can frequently work in and out, and up and down. Throwing pitches up in the strikezone adds yet another thing for hitters to think about and adjust to. The ability to change a hitter's eye level is a huge plus.
• Motion: This can be a very challenging part of a scout's job. Pitchers typically need a nice, smooth, fluid motion to consistently locate all of their pitches. Streamlined mechanics usually contribute to efficiency – better velocity and the endurance to throw more pitches, deeper into games. You'll often hear the term "release point" referring to where the pitcher actually releases the ball. A consistent release point is important to the pitcher's ability to locate his pitches. So, smooth efficient, motion is the best, right?  The short answer is yes, but here is something very important to watch for when analyzing a new pitcher's likely value. Very few pitchers have textbook mechanics. Some have very erratic and sometimes very deceptive pitching motions. Deceptive sounds good, however, a pitcher who lives on deception (lack of repertoire and location) is perhaps the most dangerous pitcher to add to your staff. He is often that head-turning new kid who posts great peripherals for a few starts. Then, just after you put him in your rotation, hitters figure him out, and the resulting meltdown can ruin your day. In fact, if you don't get him out of your rotation quickly, he can ruin your season. That's the "Do No Harm" principle. We'll talk about that in more depth soon.

Some of the newer faces are for real: I'll be blunt. Most of the new faces should not be on your roster. They are usually lower level prospects, especially at this point in the season, meaning they have glaring flaws in one or more of the categories detailed above. Hitters will figure them out, usually sooner rather than later. That said, there are always a handful of new faces worth pursuing. This year is no different. Looking at the current newbies, I've been impressed with Yusei Kikuchi in Seattle. Like many pitchers who previously played in Japan or to a lesser extent, Korea, he displays both good stuff, a quality repertoire and he locates his pitches pretty well. Chris Paddack in San Diego was hyped heavily this spring, but unlike many April phenoms, he probably deserved the attention. Adjustment is he next step. That is a constant for pitchers at the highest level. Hitters will learn him and they will adjust. To enjoy ongoing success, he will need to make his own adjustments in pitch mix and locations. Then the whole adjustment process starts over. A couple of others are also on the radar. Corbin Burnes in Milwaukee will need to be a bit more coy with hitters, but the strikeouts clearly underscore his raw ability to make an impact. And, the Diamondbacks' Merrill Kelly, who pitched the past few seasons in Korea, has a good feel for the mound, and while he won't be an ace, he could be helpful at the back of a fantasy rotation.

So, should I drop this guy to add that guy?: This may (understandably) be the most frequently asked question here in the Musings, and I always enjoy discussing the pros and cons of a potential pickup. As I just said, you should always be looking to improve, especially the bottom slots in your rotation. The trick is, fully asking the whole question – "Should I drop this guy to add this guy to my lineup right now" or, "Should I drop this guy from my bench to add this guy in hopes of him eventually helping me." The answers will usually be very different. It depends on upside or ceiling. If the guy you are looking to pick up has limited upside, he probably needs to replace someone with even less potential in your lineup right now. Stashing a pitcher who can't take a rotation spot now, and is unlikely to do so in the future, doesn't really help you. However, if you have a spot on your bench and a pitcher who has been hurt, or is underperforming as he perhaps fights some mechanical issues, becomes available, adding him could be very prudent. Looking to improve doesn't always mean today; it could be next week or next month. Just always remember, moves should improve your starting lineup at some point. Have a plan.

 There you have it – a few thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch, and sometimes overlooked factors when evaluating pitching choices for our fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I have brought up Craig Kimbrel a couple of times in recent Musings, but a big name starting pitcher is also still unsigned. Dallas Keuchel is still looking for work, but even though he has been pitching simulated games every fifth day to stay in shape, there have been no reports of an imminent deal.
• Yu Darvish made his first start of the 2019 season, but it was more of the same. He retired just eight hitters while walking seven. He struck out four – the good news – but he couldn't find the strikezone with any regularity. Darvish can still make it back to his pre-injury form, but there just hasn't been much progress.
• Rough starts aren't a huge surprise, especially this early, but I switched over hoping to watch Walker Buehler's first start just in time to see him depart. Five runs in three innings with no punchouts wasn't what I expected. His next scheduled start is in Colorado, but I plan to watch. I still see him as an ace.
• Checking the flip side of the coin, Cleveland's Trevor Bauer looks better every time I see him pitch. When the light comes on in a talented pitcher's mind, the results can be amazing and that appears to be the case with Bauer. The tools have always been there, but his mound presence has him moving forward.
• It would appear the oft-injured Matt Shoemaker is finally healthy after a couple seasons of nagging forearm injuries, but despite his flashy start (2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 14 innings), I'm not quite ready to jump on the bandwagon. He is avoiding the middle of the zone, but I need more convincing.
• His ERA (1.38) is a bit misleading due to five unearned runs in his second start, but I have been very encouraged by the beginning of Madison Bumgarner's season. He looks better than he had over the past couple of years and he just got a little boost with the acquisition of defensive difference-maker Kevin Pillar.

Endgame Odyssey:

If I'm not mistaken, the Mariners have had a total of four save opportunities since closer Hunter Strickland hit the injured list. And, four different relievers have logged saves. The most recent was newly activated Anthony Swarzak. My guess is he will get the lion's share of chances, at least until Strickland returns, with Roenis Elias his primary caddy. The Royals are in trial and error mode, and I'm not surprised Ian Kennedy is getting a look. The veteran is not a prototypicalun closer, but given the likely alternatives (Brad Boxberger and Wily Peralta) he could keep the gig. If Greg Holland performs relatively well in Arizona, he should be their ninth-inning guy, freeing up Archie Bradley to pitch earlier in games. I think he's a pretty good bet. Milwaukee recently lost their closer, Corey Knebel, for the season. Josh Hader stepped in and unsurprisingly has been outstanding. Be aware though, when Jeremy Jeffress returns in the next week or two, the Brewers might want to ease him into the closer's role so they have more flexibility with Hader. In Miami, Drew Steckenrider has been seeing high-leverage work but he has struggled, so Sergio Romo is probably back in the closer's role. He's not in the mix yet, but keep an eye on the usage of Tayron Guerrero. Atlanta's A.J. Minter returns this week, and the ailing shoulder of Arodys Vizcaino makes him very viable.