Regan’s Rumblings: Wrapping up 2018

The drama in the AL is over, but as I write this, only one NL team has officially clinched a playoff spot (the Braves). Either the Cubs or Brewers is surely going to win the Central, and either the Dodgers or Rockies the West, but it's looking like one of the Dodgers, Rockies or Cardinals will fall short of the playoffs, perhaps with 89-90 wins. At least we have some drama, and the fan in me hopes for a four-way tie come Sunday. I thought I'd wrap up my final column with some story lines I really enjoyed this year and others that weren't so enjoyable.

Enjoyable

Getting to watch Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto

I can't recall a more exciting rookie duo to break onto the scene around the same time in recent years, or even decades. First the numbers:

Acuna: 466 PA, .289/.365/.558, 26 HR, 15 SB, 9.7 BB percentage, 25.3 K percentage
Soto: 477 PA, .293/.405/.513, 21 HR, 5 SB, 15.9 BB percentage, 20.5 K percentage

Debate who's better all you want. Both have been below average defensively, but that should improve in time. Acuna looks to be a more dynamic player with a bit more power, and he's much more of a threat on the base paths. Soto, meanwhile, is the more disciplined hitter who at 19, could easily grow into 35-homer power, though he'll likely never be much of a SB threat.

Both of these guys already have me wondering what sort of contract they would secure should they reach free agency after the 2024 season. It's too bad that MLB does such a poor job marketing its stars, as these guys could be the LeBron and KD of MLB.

Shohei Ohtani – AL Rookie of the Year

One could argue for Ohtani's placement in the other section of this article considering his forthcoming Tommy John surgery, but when he's been on the field, he's been electric in either role. Imagine the additional hype he'd receive in the postseason if he were a member of the Red Sox or Yankees. Despite striking out at a 28.2 percent clip, the numbers are special: .280/.360/.559. That .280 ISO ranks eighth in the league for players with 350 plus PA and ranks above players such as Aaron Judge, Alex Bergman and Bryce Harper among others. He wasn't quite as good on the mound with a 3.31 ERA in 51.2 innings, but with a strong 11.0 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 that likely would have improved.

Ohtani likely won't take the mound again until 2020, and he'll be DH/UT only in fantasy leagues again next year, but I'm excited to see what he can do in year two and with 500 plus PA. One thing does temper my enthusiasm somewhat, and that's his .218/.306/.368 slash versus southpaws, but he can improve in that area with more experience. Now perhaps if the Angels can make some improvements in their rotation and bullpen, we'll see guys like Ohtani and Mike Trout in the playoffs next year, though that AL West is going to be tough again in 2019.

The emergence of Javier Baez

It's easy to forget that the prior two seasons saw Baez riding the pine on occasion and accumulating less than 500 at-bats in each of 2016 and 2017. This year he's going to hit 600 in what has been a true breakout season. After sub-.800 OPS totals the prior two seasons, Baez has hit .294/.328/.565. much of that improvement has come against RHP (.291/.319/.563 vs. .258/.304/.443 in 2017). Baez also cut his K% from 28.3% to 25.7%, though his walk rate is also down (4.4% from 5.9%). The biggest improvement however, has come in his power, as Baez's ISO has skyrocketed from .207 to .271. He's also swiped a career-high 21 bases with career-highs in counting stats across the board, including 110 RBI. Baez is a human highlight film on defense as well and plays with unapologetic enthusiasm. Maybe that rubs some old-school guys the wrong way, but as a fan, who cares? He's a guy who brings eyeballs to the screen every time he plays.

The A's making the playoffs

I don't have a sense of how many analysts/experts predicted the A's to make the playoffs, but the quantity was likely low or nonexistent. The A's were actually pushing the Astros for the Division entering September (1.5 GB), but then the Astros went 18-4, relegating the A's to playing the Yankees in the WC game. Still, this is a team that could win 99 games if they win their last four, and I challenge any non-diehard A's fan to name two of their starting outfielders and three of their rotation members. They are built on power with five guys with 20 plus homers, defense and a great bullpen with a Cy Young candidate in Blake Treinen. They are a very balanced team without a true superstar, though I can see an argument that Matt Chapman is just about at that level, largely based on his glove.

The Brewers offense

The Brewers have my choice as NL MVP in Christian Yelich. Yelich leads the NL in fWAR and is hitting .321/.390/.583 with 33 homers, 104 RBI, 110 runs and 21 steals. The counting stats and overall line are spectacular, so if you picked him up in the third or fourth round, you did well. That's not all the Brewers have on offense though, as Jesus Aguilar (.275/.352/.543, 31 HR, 105 RBI) and Travis Shaw (31 HR) have also provided solid seasons. Lorenzo Cain at the top with his .401 OBP has also helped mitigate down years from Eric Thames (.220/.308/.482) and Ryan Braun (.251/.311/.456). They are a deep group that can be dangerous in the playoffs if...
they get some strong starting pitching. Getting a lead to Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress will be key in the playoffs, but when your top starting pitcher is Jhoulys Chacin, or, more recently, Wade Miley, that could be troubling. Still though, a fun team to watch. By the way, here is a quick update on the return the Marlins received for Yelich:

• Lewis Brinson (OF) – .575 career MLB OPS in 445 PA
  
• Monte Harrison (OF) – Struck out 215 times (!) in AA
  
• Isan Diaz (INF) – Hit .232/.340/.399 with 180 K between AA and AAA
  
• Jordan Yamamoto (P) – He's actually been good – 1.83 ERA in 13 starts at three levels.
  

Not getting to see Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Eloy Jimenez

I get the business decisions that the Blue Jays and White Sox made here, and it will benefit them long-term, but in an ideal world, we would have seen 200 plus PA from each of these guys this season. The stats for each were phenomenal:

Guerrero – .381/.437/.636, 20 HR, 38:37 K:BB in 357 AB, primarily between AA and AAA.
Jimenez – .337/.384/.577, 22 HR, 69:32 K:BB in 416 AB between AA and AAA.

Barring a Scott Kingery-type six-year contact this spring, both seem destined to open in AAA with a target debut date of either mid-April (to gain the extra year of control) or mid-June (to avoid Super-2 arbitration status). I hope it's April, as the Blue Jays have third base clear now for Guerrero, and the White Sox have plenty of room for Jimenez at the outfield corners.

Anytime the Orioles were on my TV/iPad

The Orioles are going to finish with less than 50 wins and will likely be more than 60 games back of the Red Sox by season's end. I'll try and find something nice to say, but the negatives are plentiful, including:

• Trading one of the best players in franchise history in Manny Machado.
  
• Watching Chris Davis put up one of the worst seasons of all time (-3.2 fWAR, .168/.243/.296) while somehow getting more than 500 PA. At least he's only owed $92 million after this season.
  
• Watching the decline of Adam Jones, who will likely also be gone after this year.
  
• Seeing that their de facto No. 1 starter, Dylan Bundy, with a 5.49 ERA.
  With a 2.59 ERA in his last 11 starts, the Alex Cobb four-year deal no longer looks like a disaster.